Andorra vs Ceuta: model prediction
Segunda DivisiónAndorra or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Andorra at 56.4%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 55.7% and it landed (6 goals). We called Yes at 55.2% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Andorra go into this Segunda División meeting with Ceuta on 15 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 56%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Bookmakers see it the same way, 57% on Andorra, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 56% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 55%. 3) Head to head, the last 2 meetings gave 0 wins for Andorra, 0 draws and 2 for Ceuta, averaging 2.5 goals a game. Recent form reads W2 D0 L4 for Andorra against W3 D2 L1 for Ceuta. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.013 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
56.4%-0.2%
23.5%-1.1%
20.1%+1.3%
value_gap +0.013 <= 0.03
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Andorra 0 · 0 draws · Ceuta 2 · 2.5 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
52.4%54.8%
59.5%54.8%
21.4%28.6%
League averages this season: 2.63 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 71.8% | Over 7.5 | 59.0% | Over 8.5 | 45.7% | Over 9.5 | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Andorra | 68.7% | Most: Ceuta | 20.2% | ||||
| Andorra Over 4.2 | 58.0% | Ceuta Over 4.2 | 22.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 90.1% | Over 3.5 | 77.8% | Over 4.5 | 61.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Andorra | 36.3% | Most: Ceuta | 46.0% | ||
| Andorra Over 1.8 | 71.7% | Ceuta Over 1.8 | 77.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Andorra clean sheet | 35.0% |
|---|---|
| Ceuta clean sheet | 15.3% |
| Andorra win to nil | 29.0% |
| Ceuta win to nil | 9.3% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 56.4% | draw | 23.5% | away | 20.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 79.9% | 12 | 76.6% | X2 | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 73.7% | away | 26.3% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 55.2% | no | 44.8% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 35.4% | away | 15.3% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 29.5% | away | 9.4% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.4% | home_by_2 | 17.5% | home_by_3plus | 15.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 12.7% | away_by_2 | 5.4% | away_by_3plus | 2.1% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.9% | 0-1 | 5.1% | 0-2 | 2.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.0% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 9.7% | 1-1 | 11.1% | 1-2 | 5.5% |
| 1-3 | 1.9% | 1-4 | 0.5% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.6% | 2-1 | 9.9% | 2-2 | 5.1% |
| 2-3 | 1.8% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 6.0% | 3-1 | 6.2% | 3-2 | 3.2% |
| 3-3 | 1.1% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 2.8% | 4-1 | 2.9% | 4-2 | 1.5% |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.1% | 5-1 | 1.1% | 5-2 | 0.6% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 11.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 94.1% | under_0.5 | 5.9% | over_1.5 | 79.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 20.7% | over_2.5 | 55.7% | under_2.5 | 44.3% |
| over_3.5 | 33.4% | under_3.5 | 66.6% | over_4.5 | 17.1% |
| under_4.5 | 83.0% | over_5.5 | 7.6% | under_5.5 | 92.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.8% | even | 51.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 84.7% | under_0.5 | 15.3% | over_1.5 | 55.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 44.1% | over_2.5 | 29.0% | under_2.5 | 71.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 64.6% | under_0.5 | 35.4% | over_1.5 | 27.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.2% | over_2.5 | 8.7% | under_2.5 | 91.3% |
most
| home | 56.4% | draw | 23.5% | away | 20.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 15.6% | away_+2.5 | 84.4% | home_-1.5 | 33.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 66.9% | home_-0.5 | 56.4% | away_+0.5 | 43.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 79.9% | away_-0.5 | 20.1% | home_+1.5 | 92.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 7.4% | home_+2.5 | 97.9% | away_-2.5 | 2.1% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.9% | exact_1 | 14.8% | exact_2 | 23.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 16.3% | exact_5 | 9.5% |
| exact_6 | 4.6% | exact_7plus | 2.9% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 36.8% | draw | 37.8% | away | 25.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.7% | under_0.5 | 24.3% | over_1.5 | 41.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.7% | over_2.5 | 17.0% | under_2.5 | 83.0% |
btts
| yes | 25.3% | no | 74.8% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 24.3% | exact_1 | 34.4% | exact_2 | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 11.5% | exact_4plus | 5.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 50.7% | draw | 34.0% | away | 15.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.8% | under_0.5 | 22.2% | over_1.5 | 44.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.6% | over_2.5 | 19.2% | under_2.5 | 80.8% |
btts
| yes | 23.4% | no | 76.6% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 32.8% | H/D | 3.3% | H/A | 0.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 19.2% | D/D | 12.8% | D/A | 5.8% |
| A/H | 4.4% | A/D | 6.4% | A/A | 14.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 66.7% | under_7.5 | 33.3% | over_8.5 | 54.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 45.9% | over_9.5 | 41.6% | under_9.5 | 58.4% |
| over_10.5 | 30.3% | under_10.5 | 69.7% | over_11.5 | 20.9% |
| under_11.5 | 79.1% | over_12.5 | 13.7% | under_12.5 | 86.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.5% | under_3.5 | 25.6% | over_4.5 | 59.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 40.9% | over_5.5 | 43.6% | under_5.5 | 56.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 49.2% | under_3.5 | 50.8% | over_4.5 | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 68.3% | over_5.5 | 18.6% | under_5.5 | 81.4% |
most
| home | 62.5% | draw | 10.5% | away | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.0% | away_+3.5 | 71.0% | home_-1.5 | 51.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 49.0% | home_-0.5 | 62.5% | away_+0.5 | 37.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 73.0% | away_-0.5 | 27.0% | home_+1.5 | 81.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 18.2% | home_+3.5 | 93.2% | away_-3.5 | 6.8% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 60.0% | under_22.5 | 40.0% | over_24.5 | 46.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 53.1% | over_26.5 | 34.5% | under_26.5 | 65.5% |
| over_28.5 | 23.7% | under_28.5 | 76.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 78.2% | under_10.5 | 21.8% | over_12.5 | 62.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 37.2% | over_14.5 | 46.1% | under_14.5 | 53.9% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 41.7% | under_10.5 | 58.3% | over_12.5 | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 75.7% | over_14.5 | 12.5% | under_14.5 | 87.5% |
most
| home | 73.4% | draw | 5.2% | away | 21.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 48.3% | away_+4.5 | 51.7% | home_-2.5 | 61.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 38.6% | home_-0.5 | 73.4% | away_+0.5 | 26.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 78.6% | away_-0.5 | 21.4% | home_+2.5 | 87.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 12.9% | home_+4.5 | 92.8% | away_-4.5 | 7.2% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 71.9% | under_6.5 | 28.2% | over_7.5 | 59.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 41.0% | over_8.5 | 45.7% | under_8.5 | 54.4% |
| over_9.5 | 33.3% | under_9.5 | 66.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.5% | under_3.5 | 25.5% | over_4.5 | 58.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.0% | over_5.5 | 41.3% | under_5.5 | 58.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 39.5% | under_3.5 | 60.5% | over_4.5 | 22.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 77.7% | over_5.5 | 11.1% | under_5.5 | 88.9% |
most
| home | 68.7% | draw | 11.1% | away | 20.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 42.2% | away_+2.5 | 57.8% | home_-0.5 | 68.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 31.3% | home_+0.5 | 79.8% | away_-0.5 | 20.2% |
| home_+2.5 | 93.6% | away_-2.5 | 6.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 90.1% | under_2.5 | 10.0% | over_3.5 | 77.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 22.2% | over_4.5 | 61.5% | under_4.5 | 38.5% |
| over_5.5 | 44.2% | under_5.5 | 55.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 71.7% | under_1.5 | 28.3% | over_2.5 | 46.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 53.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 77.1% | under_1.5 | 23.0% | over_2.5 | 53.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 46.7% |
most
| home | 36.3% | draw | 17.6% | away | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 21.3% | away_+1.5 | 78.7% | home_-0.5 | 36.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.7% | home_+0.5 | 54.0% | away_-0.5 | 46.0% |
| home_+1.5 | 70.7% | away_-1.5 | 29.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 88.3% | under_20.5 | 11.7% | over_22.5 | 79.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 20.2% | over_24.5 | 68.8% | under_24.5 | 31.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 82.8% | under_9.5 | 17.2% | over_11.5 | 66.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 33.1% | over_13.5 | 48.5% | under_13.5 | 51.5% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 85.5% | under_9.5 | 14.5% | over_11.5 | 71.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 29.0% | over_13.5 | 53.2% | under_13.5 | 46.8% |
most
| home | 43.4% | draw | 6.5% | away | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.5% | away_+3.5 | 74.5% | home_-0.5 | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 56.6% | home_+2.5 | 62.9% | away_-2.5 | 37.1% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 14.0% | no | 86.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.3% | no | 94.7% |
|---|
away
| yes | 9.1% | no | 90.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Andorra predictions · Ceuta predictions · Segunda División
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets