Oviedo vs Granada: model prediction
Segunda División
Over 1.5 goals
Draw or Granada
Oviedo or draw
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Granada at 39.3%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 54.1% and it landed (0 goals). We called Yes at 51.6% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The probabilities barely separate Oviedo and Granada on 15 August 2026: Granada nose ahead at 39%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Our number sits above the market's 18% for Granada. The gap itself is information. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 46% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. 3) Schedule edge: Oviedo have had 364 more days of rest than Granada. As a promoted side, Oviedo carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The run in: Oviedo arrive W5 D1 L0, Granada W1 D0 L5. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Oviedo, 1 draws and 2 for Granada at 1.4 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.18)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
32.5%-23.9%
28.1%+2.1%
39.3%+21.7%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.18)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Oviedo 2 · 1 draws · Granada 2 · 1.4 goals/game.
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 70.4% | Over 7.5 | 57.2% | Over 8.5 | 43.8% | Over 9.5 | 31.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Oviedo | 57.0% | Most: Granada | 30.0% | ||||
| Oviedo Over 4.2 | 48.9% | Granada Over 4.2 | 29.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 87.3% | Over 3.5 | 73.2% | Over 4.5 | 55.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Oviedo | 36.5% | Most: Granada | 45.2% | ||
| Oviedo Over 1.8 | 68.3% | Granada Over 1.8 | 73.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Oviedo clean sheet | 26.5% |
|---|---|
| Granada clean sheet | 30.5% |
| Oviedo win to nil | 17.7% |
| Granada win to nil | 21.8% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 32.5% | draw | 28.1% | away | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 60.7% | 12 | 71.9% | X2 | 67.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 45.3% | away | 54.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 51.6% | no | 48.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 26.5% | away | 30.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 17.8% | away | 21.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 18.8% | home_by_2 | 9.3% | home_by_3plus | 4.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 21.1% | away_by_2 | 11.7% | away_by_3plus | 6.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.8% | 0-1 | 10.1% | 0-2 | 7.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.2% | 0-4 | 1.1% | 0-5 | 0.3% |
| 1-0 | 9.0% | 1-1 | 13.4% | 1-2 | 8.5% |
| 1-3 | 3.7% | 1-4 | 1.2% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 5.7% | 2-1 | 7.6% | 2-2 | 5.0% |
| 2-3 | 2.2% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.3% | 3-1 | 3.0% | 3-2 | 2.0% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.7% | 4-1 | 0.9% | 4-2 | 0.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.2% | under_0.5 | 8.8% | over_1.5 | 72.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.9% | over_2.5 | 45.9% | under_2.5 | 54.1% |
| over_3.5 | 24.5% | under_3.5 | 75.5% | over_4.5 | 11.0% |
| under_4.5 | 89.0% | over_5.5 | 4.3% | under_5.5 | 95.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 69.4% | under_0.5 | 30.6% | over_1.5 | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.8% | over_2.5 | 11.7% | under_2.5 | 88.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 73.5% | under_0.5 | 26.5% | over_1.5 | 38.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.7% | over_2.5 | 14.9% | under_2.5 | 85.1% |
most
| home | 32.5% | draw | 28.1% | away | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.4% | away_+2.5 | 95.6% | home_-1.5 | 13.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 86.2% | home_-0.5 | 32.5% | away_+0.5 | 67.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 60.7% | away_-0.5 | 39.3% | home_+1.5 | 81.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 18.2% | home_+2.5 | 93.5% | away_-2.5 | 6.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.8% | exact_1 | 19.1% | exact_2 | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.4% | exact_4 | 13.5% | exact_5 | 6.8% |
| exact_6 | 2.8% | exact_7plus | 1.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.4% | draw | 42.0% | away | 27.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 69.9% | under_0.5 | 30.1% | over_1.5 | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.3% | over_2.5 | 12.0% | under_2.5 | 88.0% |
btts
| yes | 20.3% | no | 79.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 30.1% | exact_1 | 36.2% | exact_2 | 21.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.7% | exact_4plus | 3.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 46.8% | draw | 38.5% | away | 14.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 71.7% | under_0.5 | 28.3% | over_1.5 | 35.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.1% | over_2.5 | 13.4% | under_2.5 | 86.6% |
btts
| yes | 18.2% | no | 81.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 26.9% | H/D | 2.9% | H/A | 0.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 19.7% | D/D | 16.1% | D/A | 6.2% |
| A/H | 3.8% | A/D | 6.9% | A/A | 16.9% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 71.3% | under_7.5 | 28.7% | over_8.5 | 59.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 40.8% | over_9.5 | 46.8% | under_9.5 | 53.2% |
| over_10.5 | 35.2% | under_10.5 | 64.8% | over_11.5 | 25.1% |
| under_11.5 | 74.9% | over_12.5 | 17.0% | under_12.5 | 83.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.0% | under_3.5 | 26.0% | over_4.5 | 58.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 41.4% | over_5.5 | 43.1% | under_5.5 | 56.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.4% | under_3.5 | 42.7% | over_4.5 | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.3% | over_5.5 | 25.2% | under_5.5 | 74.8% |
most
| home | 57.0% | draw | 10.8% | away | 32.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.2% | away_+3.5 | 74.8% | home_-1.5 | 45.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 54.3% | home_-0.5 | 57.0% | away_+0.5 | 43.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.8% | away_-0.5 | 32.3% | home_+1.5 | 77.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.8% | home_+3.5 | 90.5% | away_-3.5 | 9.5% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 60.5% | under_22.5 | 39.5% | over_24.5 | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 52.5% | over_26.5 | 35.1% | under_26.5 | 65.0% |
| over_28.5 | 24.3% | under_28.5 | 75.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.1% | under_10.5 | 25.9% | over_12.5 | 57.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 42.6% | over_14.5 | 40.5% | under_14.5 | 59.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 49.2% | under_10.5 | 50.8% | over_12.5 | 30.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 69.2% | over_14.5 | 17.2% | under_14.5 | 82.9% |
most
| home | 65.4% | draw | 5.9% | away | 28.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 39.5% | away_+4.5 | 60.6% | home_-2.5 | 52.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 47.5% | home_-0.5 | 65.4% | away_+0.5 | 34.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.3% | away_-0.5 | 28.7% | home_+2.5 | 81.5% |
| away_-2.5 | 18.5% | home_+4.5 | 89.0% | away_-4.5 | 11.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 70.4% | under_6.5 | 29.6% | over_7.5 | 57.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 42.8% | over_8.5 | 43.8% | under_8.5 | 56.2% |
| over_9.5 | 31.6% | under_9.5 | 68.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 66.9% | under_3.5 | 33.1% | over_4.5 | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.1% | over_5.5 | 32.3% | under_5.5 | 67.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 47.9% | under_3.5 | 52.1% | over_4.5 | 29.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 70.5% | over_5.5 | 16.1% | under_5.5 | 83.9% |
most
| home | 57.0% | draw | 12.9% | away | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 30.6% | away_+2.5 | 69.4% | home_-0.5 | 57.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 43.0% | home_+0.5 | 70.0% | away_-0.5 | 30.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.7% | away_-2.5 | 11.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 87.3% | under_2.5 | 12.7% | over_3.5 | 73.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 26.8% | over_4.5 | 55.6% | under_4.5 | 44.5% |
| over_5.5 | 38.0% | under_5.5 | 62.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 68.3% | under_1.5 | 31.7% | over_2.5 | 42.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 58.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 73.6% | under_1.5 | 26.5% | over_2.5 | 48.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 51.5% |
most
| home | 36.5% | draw | 18.3% | away | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.9% | away_+1.5 | 79.1% | home_-0.5 | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.5% | home_+0.5 | 54.8% | away_-0.5 | 45.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 71.9% | away_-1.5 | 28.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 86.3% | under_20.5 | 13.7% | over_22.5 | 76.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 23.1% | over_24.5 | 65.2% | under_24.5 | 34.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 85.7% | under_9.5 | 14.3% | over_11.5 | 71.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 28.7% | over_13.5 | 53.6% | under_13.5 | 46.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 78.8% | under_9.5 | 21.3% | over_11.5 | 61.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 38.9% | over_13.5 | 42.2% | under_13.5 | 57.8% |
most
| home | 54.7% | draw | 6.5% | away | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 35.1% | away_+3.5 | 64.9% | home_-0.5 | 54.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 45.4% | home_+2.5 | 73.1% | away_-2.5 | 26.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 19.6% | no | 80.4% |
|---|
home
| yes | 6.1% | no | 93.9% |
|---|
away
| yes | 14.4% | no | 85.6% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Oviedo predictions · Granada predictions · Segunda División
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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