League TwoBristol Rvs vs Rotherham Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 55.7% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 80.4% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 55.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.5% for over 2.5 to 20.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.7%. On the card count, Rotherham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.7%, with a level count at 20.7%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 20.7% | 79.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
55.8%
28.9%
61.5%
34.5%
Card handicap
| Bristol Rvs line | Bristol Rvs | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.6% | 81.4% |
| -0.5 | 35.6% | 64.4% |
| +0.5 | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| +1.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 35.3% | 64.7% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Bristol Rvs vs Rotherham. Slightly more cards are projected for Rotherham for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
55.7%Over 3.5 cards19.6%Any red card55.8%Bristol Rvs over 1.5 cards61.5%Rotherham over 1.5 cards50.3%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Bristol Rvs over 1.5 cards sits at 55.8% and Rotherham at 61.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.6% (Bristol Rvs 14.6%, Rotherham 5.9%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Bristol Rvs vs Rotherham?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 55.7% for Bristol Rvs vs Rotherham.
Will there be a red card in Bristol Rvs vs Rotherham?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 19.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Bristol Rvs vs Rotherham?
Before kickoff, the model rated Rotherham to pick up more cards at 43.7%, with a level count at 20.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.