Accrington vs Crawley Town prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Accrington vs Crawley Town: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

League Two
Accrington

LDLLD

Full time3-2Sat, 5 Sep 202615:00UK
Crawley Town

DLWLD

Model’s top convictions

71%

Accrington or draw

71%

Over 1.5 goals

63%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time6 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Accrington 3-2 Crawley Town
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
7 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Accrington at 42.6%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 55.7% and it missed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 70.8% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 76.8% and it missed (5 goals). We called No at 50.1% and it missed. We called Yes at 64.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 72.5% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 53.8% and it missed (5 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 57.7% and it landed (6 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 53.0% and it missed (25 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 54.9% and it landed (9 shots on target). We called No at 74.7% and it landed.

Match data Accrington Crawley Town
Goals, 1st half 1 1
Goals, 2nd half 2 1
Shots 10 15
Shots on target 4 5
Corners 1 4
Yellow cards 4 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 21 8

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
AccringtonWin probability
42.6%
Top 3 convictions

Accrington or draw70.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.41
Over 1.5 goals70.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.41
Over 8.5 corners63.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.59

Model read

▾

Our engine prices Accrington at 43% for 5 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Accrington at 49%. Caution noted. This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 44% with both teams to score at 50%. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Accrington, 2 draws and 3 for Crawley Town at 3.2 goals per match. Form guide over the last six: Accrington W0 D3 L3, Crawley Town W1 D3 L2. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.043 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals44.3%@ 2.26
Over 10.5 corners42.2%@ 2.37
Over 11.5 corners32.8%@ 3.05
Medium risk

Draw or Crawley Town57.4%@ 1.74
Under 2.5 goals55.7%@ 1.80
Over 9.5 corners52.5%@ 1.90
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.4%@ 7.47
1-0 correct score11.2%@ 8.94
0-0 correct score9.3%@ 10.73

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Accrington

42.6%-6.2%

Draw

28.3%+2.7%

Crawley Town

29.1%+3.5%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.043 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.570.8%

Strong chance

Over 2.544.3%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes49.9%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.563.0%

Strong chance

Over 9.552.5%

Good chance

Over 10.542.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.532.8%

Toss-up

Most cornersAccrington49.6%Crawley Town39.6%

Shots markets

Over 22.559.8%

Good chance

Over 24.547.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.535.0%

Toss-up

Over 28.524.5%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.570.8%2.544.3%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.570.8%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

AccringtonLDLLD
Crawley TownDLWLD

Last 5 meetings: Accrington 0 · 2 draws · Crawley Town 3 · 3.2 goals/game.

2026-04-25Accrington 3-3 Crawley Town
2025-11-22Crawley Town 1-1 Accrington
2024-02-24Accrington 0-1 Crawley Town
2023-11-11Crawley Town 3-1 Accrington
2018-01-27Crawley Town 2-1 Accrington

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AccringtonCrawley Town
League position#23 of 24#17 of 24
Record W-D-L0-2-21-1-2
Current streakD1D1
Record, home vs away0-2-01-1-0
Red cards this season02

League averages this season: 2.65 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 52% · BTTS in 58%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Accrington win1.912.35
Draw3.503.53
Crawley Town win3.503.44
Over 2.5 goals1.752.26
Under 2.5 goals2.051.80

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Accrington win2.35
Draw3.53
Crawley Town win3.44
Both teams to score2.00

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.41
Over 2.5 goals2.26
Over 3.5 goals4.31
Accrington most2.35
Crawley Town most3.44

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.32
Over 8.5 corners1.53
Over 9.5 corners1.86
Over 10.5 corners2.36
Accrington most2.01
Crawley Town most2.52

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.30
Over 3.5 cards1.73
Over 4.5 cards2.62
Over 5.5 cards4.48
Accrington most2.73
Crawley Town most2.34

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.48
Over 7.5 SoT1.82
Over 8.5 SoT2.35
Over 9.5 SoT3.18
Accrington most2.00
Crawley Town most2.68

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.67
Over 24.5 shots2.13
Over 26.5 shots2.86
Over 28.5 shots4.07
Accrington most1.93
Crawley Town most2.39

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.42
Over 22.5 fouls1.79
Over 24.5 fouls2.46
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 67.4% Over 7.5 54.9% Over 8.5 42.6% Over 9.5 31.4%
Most: Accrington 50.0% Most: Crawley Town 37.3%
Accrington Over 4.2 42.9% Crawley Town Over 4.2 33.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 77.0% Over 3.5 57.7% Over 4.5 38.2%
Most: Accrington 36.7% Most: Crawley Town 42.8%
Accrington Over 1.8 57.9% Crawley Town Over 1.8 62.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Accrington clean sheet 33.8%
Crawley Town clean sheet 25.5%
Accrington win to nil 24.5%
Crawley Town win to nil 16.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 42.6% draw 28.3% away 29.1%
double_chance
1X 70.9% 12 71.7% X2 57.4%
dnb
home 59.5% away 40.5%
btts
yes 49.9% no 50.1%
clean_sheet
home 33.9% away 25.5%
win_to_nil
home 24.6% away 16.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.3% home_by_2 12.8% home_by_3plus 7.5%
away_by_1 17.6% away_by_2 8.1% away_by_3plus 3.4%
correct_score
0-0 9.3% 0-1 8.7% 0-2 5.1%
0-3 1.8% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 11.2% 1-1 13.4% 1-2 6.9%
1-3 2.5% 1-4 0.7% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 8.1% 2-1 8.7% 2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.7% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.7% 3-1 4.0% 3-2 2.2%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.3% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.7% under_0.5 9.3% over_1.5 70.8%
under_1.5 29.2% over_2.5 44.3% under_2.5 55.7%
over_3.5 23.2% under_3.5 76.8% over_4.5 10.3%
under_4.5 89.7% over_5.5 3.9% under_5.5 96.1%
odd_even
odd 48.3% even 51.7%
team_home
over_0.5 74.5% under_0.5 25.5% over_1.5 39.6%
under_1.5 60.4% over_2.5 15.9% under_2.5 84.1%
team_away
over_0.5 66.1% under_0.5 33.9% over_1.5 29.5%
under_1.5 70.5% over_2.5 9.6% under_2.5 90.4%
most
home 42.6% draw 28.3% away 29.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.5% away_+2.5 92.5% home_-1.5 20.3%
away_+1.5 79.7% home_-0.5 42.6% away_+0.5 57.4%
home_+0.5 70.9% away_-0.5 29.1% home_+1.5 88.5%
away_-1.5 11.5% home_+2.5 96.6% away_-2.5 3.4%
total_exact
exact_0 9.3% exact_1 19.9% exact_2 26.5%
exact_3 21.1% exact_4 12.9% exact_5 6.4%
exact_6 2.6% exact_7plus 1.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.6% draw 45.4% away 20.0%
total
over_0.5 64.3% under_0.5 35.8% over_1.5 27.5%
under_1.5 72.5% over_2.5 8.6% under_2.5 91.4%
btts
yes 15.5% no 84.6%
total_exact
exact_0 35.8% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 18.9%
exact_3 6.5% exact_4plus 2.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.3% draw 40.2% away 27.5%
total
over_0.5 72.5% under_0.5 27.5% over_1.5 37.0%
under_1.5 63.0% over_2.5 14.1% under_2.5 85.9%
btts
yes 22.5% no 77.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 27.1% H/D 5.6% H/A 1.9%
D/H 14.7% D/D 18.2% D/A 12.5%
A/H 1.6% A/D 4.0% A/A 14.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.0% under_7.5 24.0% over_8.5 65.4%
under_8.5 34.7% over_9.5 53.8% under_9.5 46.2%
over_10.5 42.4% under_10.5 57.6% over_11.5 32.0%
under_11.5 68.1% over_12.5 23.1% under_12.5 76.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.9% under_3.5 27.2% over_4.5 57.7%
under_4.5 42.3% over_5.5 42.6% under_5.5 57.4%
team_away
over_3.5 66.6% under_3.5 33.5% over_4.5 50.2%
under_4.5 49.8% over_5.5 35.1% under_5.5 64.9%
most
home 49.7% draw 10.6% away 39.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.1% away_+3.5 78.9% home_-1.5 39.2%
away_+1.5 60.8% home_-0.5 49.7% away_+0.5 50.3%
home_+0.5 60.3% away_-0.5 39.7% home_+1.5 70.2%
away_-1.5 29.8% home_+3.5 85.6% away_-3.5 14.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.8% under_22.5 40.2% over_24.5 47.0%
under_24.5 53.0% over_26.5 35.0% under_26.5 65.0%
over_28.5 24.5% under_28.5 75.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 65.4% under_10.5 34.6% over_12.5 47.7%
under_12.5 52.3% over_14.5 31.5% under_14.5 68.5%
team_away
over_10.5 58.7% under_10.5 41.3% over_12.5 40.5%
under_12.5 59.5% over_14.5 25.2% under_14.5 74.8%
most
home 51.8% draw 6.4% away 41.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 27.4% away_+4.5 72.6% home_-2.5 39.1%
away_+2.5 61.0% home_-0.5 51.8% away_+0.5 48.2%
home_+0.5 58.2% away_-0.5 41.8% home_+2.5 70.3%
away_-2.5 29.7% home_+4.5 80.4% away_-4.5 19.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 67.4% under_6.5 32.6% over_7.5 54.9%
under_7.5 45.1% over_8.5 42.6% under_8.5 57.4%
over_9.5 31.4% under_9.5 68.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 60.0% under_3.5 40.0% over_4.5 42.9%
under_4.5 57.2% over_5.5 28.2% under_5.5 71.8%
team_away
over_3.5 51.0% under_3.5 49.0% over_4.5 33.8%
under_4.5 66.2% over_5.5 20.5% under_5.5 79.5%
most
home 50.0% draw 12.7% away 37.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.1% away_+2.5 73.9% home_-0.5 50.0%
away_+0.5 50.0% home_+0.5 62.7% away_-0.5 37.3%
home_+2.5 83.3% away_-2.5 16.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 77.0% under_2.5 23.0% over_3.5 57.7%
under_3.5 42.3% over_4.5 38.2% under_4.5 61.9%
over_5.5 22.3% under_5.5 77.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 57.9% under_1.5 42.1% over_2.5 30.9%
under_2.5 69.1%
team_away
over_1.5 62.2% under_1.5 37.8% over_2.5 35.2%
under_2.5 64.8%
most
home 36.7% draw 20.5% away 42.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.6% away_+1.5 80.4% home_-0.5 36.7%
away_+0.5 63.3% home_+0.5 57.2% away_-0.5 42.8%
home_+1.5 75.6% away_-1.5 24.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 70.6% under_20.5 29.4% over_22.5 55.8%
under_22.5 44.2% over_24.5 40.6% under_24.5 59.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 75.7% under_9.5 24.3% over_11.5 55.5%
under_11.5 44.5% over_13.5 34.9% under_13.5 65.1%
team_away
over_9.5 66.9% under_9.5 33.1% over_11.5 44.7%
under_11.5 55.3% over_13.5 25.3% under_13.5 74.7%
most
home 53.7% draw 7.6% away 38.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 31.3% away_+3.5 68.7% home_-0.5 53.7%
away_+0.5 46.3% home_+2.5 75.1% away_-2.5 25.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 25.3% no 74.7%
home
yes 13.8% no 86.2%
away
yes 13.3% no 86.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Accrington predictions · Crawley Town predictions · League Two

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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