ChampionshipBristol City vs Millwall Cards
Result
Settled, final score 0-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 47.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 69.1% for over 2.5 to 15.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.7%. Between the two sides, Millwall are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 53.1%, with a level count at 20.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.1% | 84.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
42.4%
17.7%
62.6%
35.6%
Card handicap
| Bristol City line | Bristol City | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11.5% | 88.5% |
| -0.5 | 26.0% | 74.0% |
| +0.5 | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| +1.5 | 68.2% | 31.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 55.9% | 44.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 26.3% | 73.7% |
Recent referees
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | T Nield | 4 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| Bristol City | E Duckworth | 3 | 6.0 | 2.7 |
| Bristol City | R Ricardo | 3 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| Millwall | G Ward | 3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Millwall | L Smith | 3 | 3.3 | 2.0 |
| Millwall | T Nield | 3 | 5.7 | 2.7 |
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. We never claim who officiates this match: the appointment is not known before kickoff.
This season (2025/26)
1.7Bristol City cards per game9.5Bristol City fouls per game1.9Millwall cards per game12.8Millwall fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Bristol City vs Millwall. It tips Millwall for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
47.7%Over 3.5 cards7.0%Any red card42.4%Bristol City over 1.5 cards62.6%Millwall over 1.5 cards40.2%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Bristol City over 1.5 cards sits at 42.4% and Millwall at 62.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.0% (Bristol City 2.2%, Millwall 4.9%). Bristol City’s most frequent referee this season, T Nield, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 4 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Bristol City have averaged 1.7 cards a game and Millwall 1.9.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Bristol City vs Millwall?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 47.7% for Bristol City vs Millwall.
Will there be a red card in Bristol City vs Millwall?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 7.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Bristol City vs Millwall?
Before kickoff, the model rated Millwall to pick up more cards at 53.1%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.