2. Bundesliga
Bochum vs Osnabruck Cards
Result
Settled, final score 0-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 64.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 81.5% for over 2.5 to 28.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.8%. On the card count, Osnabruck are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.4%, with a level count at 19.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 81.5% | 18.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 28.0% | 72.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
63.7%
36.8%
65.4%
38.6%
Card handicap
| Bochum line | Bochum | Osnabruck |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.9% | 78.1% |
| -0.5 | 38.9% | 61.1% |
| +0.5 | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| +1.5 | 76.1% | 23.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 39.8% | 60.2% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Bochum vs Osnabruck. It tips Osnabruck for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
64.0%Over 3.5 cards8.2%Any red card63.7%Bochum over 1.5 cards65.4%Osnabruck over 1.5 cards54.2%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Bochum over 1.5 cards sits at 63.7% and Osnabruck at 65.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.2% (Bochum 3.3%, Osnabruck 5.0%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Bochum vs Osnabruck?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 64.0% for Bochum vs Osnabruck.
Will there be a red card in Bochum vs Osnabruck?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 8.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Bochum vs Osnabruck?
Before kickoff, the model rated Osnabruck to pick up more cards at 41.4%, with a level count at 19.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More 2. Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.