Stoke vs Norwich prediction & probabilities (2026-09-01)

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Stoke vs Norwich: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 1 Sep 2026

Championship
Stoke

LLLLL

Full time1-0Tue, 1 Sep 202620:00UK
Norwich

DLLLW

Model’s top convictions

75%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Draw or Norwich

67%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Stoke 1-0 Norwich
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
7 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Norwich at 42.1%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 50.5% and it landed (1 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 74.9% and it missed (1 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 72.4% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 54.2% and it missed. We called Yes at 68.8% and it landed. We called Yes at 78.1% and it missed. We called Over 9.5 at 58.1% and it missed (8 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 56.3% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 52.8% and it landed (21 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 56.1% and it landed (8 shots on target). We called No at 88.8% and it landed.

Match data Stoke Norwich
Goals, 1st half 1 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 6 15
Shots on target 2 6
Corners 3 5
Yellow cards 2 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 16 10

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
NorwichWin probability
42.1%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals74.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.34
Draw or Norwich69.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.45
Over 8.5 corners66.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.50

Model read

▾

The model leans Norwich at 42% when Stoke host Norwich in the Championship on 1 September 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Norwich higher (47%) than our model does. No strong lean on goals (50% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Stoke, 2 draws and 2 for Norwich, averaging 3.0 goals a game. The run in: Stoke arrive W0 D0 L6, Norwich W2 D1 L3. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.012 <= 0).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners45.8%@ 2.18
Norwich win42.1%@ 2.38
Over 11.5 corners36.0%@ 2.78
Medium risk

Stoke or draw58.0%@ 1.72
Over 9.5 corners56.2%@ 1.78
Both teams to score54.2%@ 1.85
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.9%@ 7.75
0-1 correct score9.6%@ 10.44
1-2 correct score8.9%@ 11.25

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Stoke

30.9%+3.7%

Draw

27.1%+1.5%

Norwich

42.1%-5.1%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.012 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.574.9%

Strong chance

Over 2.549.5%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes54.2%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.566.7%

Strong chance

Over 9.556.2%

Good chance

Over 10.545.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.536.0%

Toss-up

Most cornersStoke56.9%Norwich32.8%

Shots markets

Over 22.559.9%

Good chance

Over 24.547.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.535.1%

Toss-up

Over 28.524.7%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.574.9%2.549.5%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.574.9%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

StokeLLLLL
NorwichDLLLW

Last 5 meetings: Stoke 1 · 2 draws · Norwich 2 · 3.0 goals/game.

2026-01-04Norwich 0-2 Stoke
2025-09-27Stoke 1-1 Norwich
2025-02-22Norwich 4-2 Stoke
2024-10-19Stoke 1-1 Norwich
2024-03-16Stoke 0-3 Norwich

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

StokeNorwich
League position#24 of 24#16 of 24
Record W-D-L0-0-31-0-2
Current streakL3W1
Record, home vs away0-0-10-0-1
Red cards this season11

League averages this season: 3.03 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 75% · BTTS in 78%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Stoke win3.403.24
Draw3.603.69
Norwich win2.012.38
Over 2.5 goals1.802.02
Under 2.5 goals2.001.98

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Stoke win3.24
Draw3.69
Norwich win2.38
Both teams to score1.85

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.34
Over 2.5 goals2.02
Over 3.5 goals3.63
Stoke most3.24
Norwich most2.38

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.26
Over 8.5 corners1.44
Over 9.5 corners1.72
Over 10.5 corners2.15
Stoke most1.75
Norwich most3.05

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.32
Over 3.5 cards1.78
Over 4.5 cards2.72
Over 5.5 cards4.72
Stoke most2.92
Norwich most2.21

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.45
Over 7.5 SoT1.78
Over 8.5 SoT2.31
Over 9.5 SoT3.14
Stoke most1.99
Norwich most2.72

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.67
Over 24.5 shots2.12
Over 26.5 shots2.85
Over 28.5 shots4.05
Stoke most1.68
Norwich most2.91

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.77
Over 22.5 fouls2.46
Over 24.5 fouls3.75
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 68.7% Over 7.5 56.1% Over 8.5 43.4% Over 9.5 31.9%
Most: Stoke 50.3% Most: Norwich 36.8%
Stoke Over 4.2 43.7% Norwich Over 4.2 34.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 75.9% Over 3.5 56.3% Over 4.5 36.7%
Most: Stoke 34.2% Most: Norwich 45.2%
Stoke Over 1.8 55.1% Norwich Over 1.8 62.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Stoke clean sheet 23.5%
Norwich clean sheet 29.8%
Stoke win to nil 15.8%
Norwich win to nil 22.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 30.9% draw 27.1% away 42.1%
double_chance
1X 57.9% 12 72.9% X2 69.1%
dnb
home 42.3% away 57.7%
btts
yes 54.2% no 45.8%
clean_sheet
home 23.5% away 30.0%
win_to_nil
home 15.9% away 22.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 17.8% home_by_2 8.8% home_by_3plus 4.3%
away_by_1 21.5% away_by_2 12.7% away_by_3plus 7.9%
correct_score
0-0 7.7% 0-1 9.6% 0-2 7.4%
0-3 3.6% 0-4 1.3% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 7.9% 1-1 12.9% 1-2 8.9%
1-3 4.3% 1-4 1.6% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 5.1% 2-1 7.4% 2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.6% 2-4 0.9% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 2.1% 3-1 3.0% 3-2 2.2%
3-3 1.0% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.6% 4-1 0.9% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.3% under_0.5 7.7% over_1.5 74.9%
under_1.5 25.1% over_2.5 49.5% under_2.5 50.5%
over_3.5 27.6% under_3.5 72.5% over_4.5 13.0%
under_4.5 87.0% over_5.5 5.3% under_5.5 94.7%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 70.0% under_0.5 30.0% over_1.5 33.9%
under_1.5 66.1% over_2.5 12.2% under_2.5 87.8%
team_away
over_0.5 76.5% under_0.5 23.5% over_1.5 42.4%
under_1.5 57.6% over_2.5 17.8% under_2.5 82.2%
most
home 30.9% draw 27.1% away 42.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.3% away_+2.5 95.8% home_-1.5 13.1%
away_+1.5 86.9% home_-0.5 30.9% away_+0.5 69.1%
home_+0.5 58.0% away_-0.5 42.1% home_+1.5 79.4%
away_-1.5 20.6% home_+2.5 92.1% away_-2.5 7.9%
total_exact
exact_0 7.7% exact_1 17.5% exact_2 25.4%
exact_3 21.9% exact_4 14.5% exact_5 7.7%
exact_6 3.4% exact_7plus 1.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 29.1% draw 42.7% away 28.2%
total
over_0.5 68.8% under_0.5 31.2% over_1.5 32.5%
under_1.5 67.5% over_2.5 11.3% under_2.5 88.7%
btts
yes 19.5% no 80.5%
total_exact
exact_0 31.2% exact_1 36.3% exact_2 21.2%
exact_3 8.2% exact_4plus 3.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 22.8% draw 35.8% away 41.4%
total
over_0.5 78.1% under_0.5 22.0% over_1.5 44.8%
under_1.5 55.2% over_2.5 19.5% under_2.5 80.5%
btts
yes 27.0% no 73.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 19.2% H/D 6.4% H/A 3.6%
D/H 9.7% D/D 15.3% D/A 17.7%
A/H 1.3% A/D 3.9% A/A 23.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.7% under_7.5 20.3% over_8.5 69.5%
under_8.5 30.5% over_9.5 58.1% under_9.5 41.9%
over_10.5 46.4% under_10.5 53.6% over_11.5 35.4%
under_11.5 64.6% over_12.5 25.8% under_12.5 74.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.3% under_3.5 20.8% over_4.5 65.5%
under_4.5 34.6% over_5.5 50.6% under_5.5 49.4%
team_away
over_3.5 64.6% under_3.5 35.4% over_4.5 47.6%
under_4.5 52.4% over_5.5 32.3% under_5.5 67.7%
most
home 57.0% draw 10.2% away 32.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.8% away_+3.5 73.3% home_-1.5 46.4%
away_+1.5 53.6% home_-0.5 57.0% away_+0.5 43.0%
home_+0.5 67.2% away_-0.5 32.8% home_+1.5 76.2%
away_-1.5 23.8% home_+3.5 89.4% away_-3.5 10.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.9% under_22.5 40.1% over_24.5 47.2%
under_24.5 52.8% over_26.5 35.1% under_26.5 64.9%
over_28.5 24.7% under_28.5 75.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 70.0% under_10.5 30.0% over_12.5 53.1%
under_12.5 46.9% over_14.5 36.7% under_14.5 63.3%
team_away
over_10.5 53.1% under_10.5 46.9% over_12.5 35.0%
under_12.5 65.0% over_14.5 20.8% under_14.5 79.2%
most
home 59.5% draw 6.1% away 34.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.3% away_+4.5 65.7% home_-2.5 46.7%
away_+2.5 53.3% home_-0.5 59.5% away_+0.5 40.5%
home_+0.5 65.6% away_-0.5 34.4% home_+2.5 76.6%
away_-2.5 23.4% home_+4.5 85.3% away_-4.5 14.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 68.8% under_6.5 31.3% over_7.5 56.1%
under_7.5 43.9% over_8.5 43.4% under_8.5 56.6%
over_9.5 31.9% under_9.5 68.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 61.3% under_3.5 38.7% over_4.5 43.7%
under_4.5 56.3% over_5.5 28.6% under_5.5 71.4%
team_away
over_3.5 51.8% under_3.5 48.2% over_4.5 34.1%
under_4.5 65.9% over_5.5 20.4% under_5.5 79.6%
most
home 50.3% draw 12.9% away 36.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.0% away_+2.5 74.1% home_-0.5 50.3%
away_+0.5 49.7% home_+0.5 63.2% away_-0.5 36.8%
home_+2.5 84.0% away_-2.5 16.1%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 75.9% under_2.5 24.1% over_3.5 56.3%
under_3.5 43.7% over_4.5 36.7% under_4.5 63.3%
over_5.5 21.2% under_5.5 78.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 55.1% under_1.5 44.9% over_2.5 28.2%
under_2.5 71.8%
team_away
over_1.5 62.9% under_1.5 37.1% over_2.5 35.9%
under_2.5 64.1%
most
home 34.2% draw 20.6% away 45.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.7% away_+1.5 82.3% home_-0.5 34.2%
away_+0.5 65.8% home_+0.5 54.8% away_-0.5 45.2%
home_+1.5 73.8% away_-1.5 26.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 56.4% under_20.5 43.6% over_22.5 40.6%
under_22.5 59.4% over_24.5 26.7% under_24.5 73.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 61.9% under_9.5 38.1% over_11.5 39.6%
under_11.5 60.4% over_13.5 21.3% under_13.5 78.6%
team_away
over_9.5 61.6% under_9.5 38.4% over_11.5 39.2%
under_11.5 60.8% over_13.5 21.1% under_13.5 79.0%
most
home 46.3% draw 8.0% away 45.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.3% away_+3.5 75.8% home_-0.5 46.3%
away_+0.5 53.7% home_+2.5 69.5% away_-2.5 30.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 11.2% no 88.8%
home
yes 9.5% no 90.5%
away
yes 1.9% no 98.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Stoke predictions · Norwich predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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