Süper Lig

Besiktas vs Corum Double Chance

2026-08-31 · 19:30

Double Chance87.6%Home or Draw

Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.

Result

Besiktas 6-2 Corum

✓ Besiktas or Draw

The highest-probability cover, Besiktas or Draw (87.6%), landed.

Best predictionHome or Draw · 87.6%A clear lean on the model’s numbers. Calibrated, not a tip.

88%

model probability

ConvictionStrong

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Home or Draw at 87.6%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Besiktas are favoured at 67.7%, so game state could swing this market. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.

Double Chance

★ Top coverBesiktas or Draw87.6%

Draw or Corum32.3%

Besiktas or Corum80.1%

Draw no bet

Besiktas84.5%

Corum15.5%

Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.

Winning margin

Margin	Probability
Besiktas by 1	23.7%
Besiktas by 2	20.6%
Besiktas by 3+	23.4%
Corum by 1	8.6%
Corum by 2	2.9%
Corum by 3+	0.9%
Draw	19.9%

Goal handicap

Besiktas line	Besiktas	Corum
-2.5	23.4%	76.6%
-1.5	44.0%	56.0%
-0.5	67.7%	32.4%
+0.5	87.6%	12.4%

Two of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is Besiktas or draw on the model numbers.

In-depth analysis

67.7%Favoured: Besiktas

49.3%Both Teams to Score

56.6%Over 2.5 goals

For context, Besiktas are favoured at 67.7%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.

Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 87.6% on Double Chance, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.

The TacticianReads an open, higher-tempo game from the 56.6% over 2.5 read.

The ScoutBesiktas are the model’s pick on the result at 67.7%, a lean on probability, never on price.

The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

Form & head-to-head

BesiktasWLDWL

CorumDL

FAQ

Which double chance landed in Besiktas vs Corum?
Home or Draw was the highest-probability cover at 87.6%; it landed, final score 6-2.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Double Chance accuracy

How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.

75.8%Best Double Chance call, hit rate

0.0097Calibration error

55,318Matches graded

In 11,045 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Double Chance calls

The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.

✗ 78.1%✓ 80.2%✓ 81.4%✓ 84.3%✗ 71.2%✓ 72.9%✗ 71.7%✓ 77.1%✓ 81.1%✓ 70.6%

7 of 10 recent calls hit.

Estrela vs Sp Braga2026-09-10Draw or Away 78.1%Miss

Panathinaikos vs Kifisia2026-09-10Home or Draw 80.2%Hit

Twente vs Telstar2026-09-09Home or Draw 81.4%Hit

Moreirense vs Benfica2026-09-09Draw or Away 84.3%Hit

Derby vs West Brom2026-09-09Home or Draw 71.2%Miss

More Süper Lig, Double Chance

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.

Besiktas vs Corum prediction & probabilities (2026-08-31)