Super League Greece
Atromitos vs 
PAOK Shots
Result
We called Under 24.5 at 63.2% and it missed (30 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 52.8% and it missed (7 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 36.8%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 48.2% for over 22.5 to 18.5% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.2%. On the shot count, Atromitos are the model’s pick to have more shots at 59.3%, with a level count at 5.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| 26.5 shots | 26.8% | 73.2% |
| 28.5 shots | 18.5% | 81.5% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
61.2%
45.4%
31.2%
43.8%
28.3%
16.8%
Shot handicap
| Atromitos line | Atromitos | PAOK |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| -2.5 | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| -0.5 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| +0.5 | 65.1% | 34.9% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 64.8% | 35.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 41.2% | 58.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 30.8% | 69.2% |
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Atromitos.
In-depth analysis
36.8%Over 24.5 shots45.4%Atromitos over 12.5 shots28.3%PAOK over 12.5 shots52.8%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Atromitos over 12.5 shots sits at 45.4% and PAOK at 28.3%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Atromitos vs PAOK?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 36.8% for Atromitos vs PAOK.
Which team will have more shots in Atromitos vs PAOK?
Before kickoff, the model rated Atromitos to take more shots at 59.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,984 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Shots actually happened 39.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.