Premier League

Arsenal vs Coventry Both Teams to Score

2026-08-21 · 20:00

Both Teams to Score56.5%Both teams to score · No

Result

Arsenal 3-0 Coventry

✓ No

We called No at 56.5% and it landed.

Best predictionBoth teams to score · No · 56.5%Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean. Calibrated, not a tip.

56%

model probability

ConvictionLean

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Both teams to score · No at 56.5%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. That fits an open goals environment: 56.3% for over 2.5 and 79.5% for at least two goals. Arsenal have seen both teams score in 1 of their last 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.

Both Teams to Score

Yes43.5%

★ ModelNo56.5%

Over 2.5 · context56.3%

Recent scoring & conceding (per game)

Arsenal scored

1.6

Arsenal conceded

0.2

Each team to score

Arsenal to score89.8%

Arsenal 2+ goals66.6%

Coventry to score48.0%

Coventry 2+ goals14.0%

By half

Both score in 1st half15.4%

Both score in 2nd half25.1%

Goals distribution

The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.

5.7%

14.8%

23.2%

22.4%

16.5%

14.6%

In-depth analysis

75.8%Favoured: Arsenal

43.5%Both Teams to Score

56.3%Over 2.5 goals

Looking at totals, the model sees 56.3% for three or more goals and 79.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Arsenal favoured at 75.8%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.

Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 56.5% on Both Teams to Score, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.

The TacticianProjects an open, higher-tempo game from the 56.3% over 2.5 read.

The ScoutArsenal are the model’s pick on the result at 75.8%, context for how the goals may flow.

The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

Match outlook

Arsenal75.8%

Draw16.1%

Coventry8.1%

The model leans Arsenal to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

Gabriel JesusArsenal · 3.61 shots/90

To score 18.3%

This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

ArsenalWWWWW

Recent trends

ArsenalBTTS 1/5Over 2.5 2/5

How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.

FAQ

Did both teams score in Arsenal vs Coventry?
We rated Both Teams to Score at 43.5%. Both teams did not both score, final score 3-0.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Both Teams to Score accuracy

How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.

53.3%Best Both Teams to Score call, hit rate

0.0231Calibration error

55,318Matches graded

In 20,236 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 49.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls

The model’s most recent graded Both Teams to Score predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.

✓ 52.9%✗ 51.9%✗ 59.3%✗ 50.6%✓ 52.6%✓ 51.6%✗ 51.1%✓ 58.9%✓ 62.2%✗ 52.0%

5 of 10 recent calls hit.

Estrela vs Sp Braga2026-09-10Yes 52.9%Hit

Panathinaikos vs Kifisia2026-09-10No 51.9%Miss

Twente vs Telstar2026-09-09Yes 59.3%Miss

Moreirense vs Benfica2026-09-09Yes 50.6%Miss

Derby vs West Brom2026-09-09No 52.6%Hit

More Premier League, Both Teams to Score

All Both Teams to Score predictions →

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.

Arsenal vs Coventry prediction & probabilities (2026-08-21)