Eredivisie
Ajax vs 
PSV Eindhoven Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Over 2.5 at 69.1% and it landed. We called Under 3.5 at 52.3% and it missed. We called Yes at 82.8% and it landed (3 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 2.5 goals at 69.1%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Ajax have averaged 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded, PSV Eindhoven 4.0 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 69.1% for over 2.5 and 87.5% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 goals a game. Ajax have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, PSV Eindhoven in 5 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 96.7% | 3.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 87.5% | 12.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| 3.5 goals | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 4.5 goals | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| 5.5 goals | 15.1% | 84.9% |
Team goal lines
80.3%
48.4%
22.4%
85.6%
57.7%
30.6%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 82.8% | 17.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 25.8% | 74.2% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 84.5% | 15.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 28.7% | 71.3% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
69.2%Both Teams to Score69.1%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 69.1% for three or more goals and 87.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With PSV Eindhoven favoured at 44.9%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans PSV Eindhoven to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Ajax 2 · 3 draws · PSV Eindhoven 0 · 3.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 69.1%. The match finished with 4 goals (1-3), over 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,496 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.