Super League Greece
AEK vs 
Aris Shots
Result
We called Under 24.5 at 59.9% and it missed (28 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 52.7% and it landed (12 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 40.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 51.6% for over 22.5 to 20.9% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.6%. Between the two sides, AEK are the model’s pick to have more shots at 63.8%, with a level count at 5.5%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 40.1% | 59.9% |
| 26.5 shots | 29.7% | 70.3% |
| 28.5 shots | 20.9% | 79.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
66.2%
50.9%
36.4%
42.7%
27.4%
16.1%
Shot handicap
| AEK line | AEK | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| -2.5 | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| -0.5 | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| +0.5 | 69.3% | 30.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 41.1% | 58.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 30.7% | 69.3% |
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for AEK.
In-depth analysis
40.1%Over 24.5 shots50.9%AEK over 12.5 shots27.4%Aris over 12.5 shots52.7%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, AEK over 12.5 shots sits at 50.9% and Aris at 27.4%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in AEK vs Aris?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 40.1% for AEK vs Aris.
Which team will have more shots in AEK vs Aris?
Before kickoff, the model rated AEK to take more shots at 63.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.