Mallorca vs Ceuta prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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Mallorca vs Ceuta: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Segunda División
Mallorca

WWDWL

Full time3-0Sun, 30 Aug 202618:00UK
Ceuta

LWWLL

Model’s top convictions

75%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Mallorca or draw

59%

Draw or Ceuta

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Mallorca 3-0 Ceuta
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Mallorca at 41.1%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 50.1% and it missed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 75.2% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 72.0% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 54.7% and it missed. We called Yes at 68.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 78.7% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 57.5% and it landed (6 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 72.5% and it landed (5 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 51.6% and it landed (18 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 61.2% and it missed (4 shots on target). We called No at 86.4% and it landed.

Match data Mallorca Ceuta
Goals, 1st half 1 0
Goals, 2nd half 2 0
Shots 13 5
Shots on target 4 0
Corners 3 3
Yellow cards 2 3
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 11 14

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
MallorcaWin probability
41.1%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals75.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.33
Mallorca or draw68.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.47
Draw or Ceuta59.0%Good chancePays @ 1.69

Model read

▾

Little between these two in the data. Mallorca at 41% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 30 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Mallorca at 68%. Caution noted. • No strong lean on goals (50% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Recent form reads W4 D1 L1 for Mallorca against W2 D1 L3 for Ceuta. • For shots markets, Abdón Prats is the obvious watch at 1.3 on target per 90 in recent data. Schedule edge: Ceuta have had 3 more days of rest than Mallorca. Mallorca are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners42.3%@ 2.36
Over 10.5 corners32.2%@ 3.11
Ceuta win31.9%@ 3.13
Medium risk

Both teams to score54.7%@ 1.83
Over 8.5 corners53.4%@ 1.87
Under 2.5 goals50.1%@ 2.00
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.9%@ 7.76
1-0 correct score9.3%@ 10.74
2-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.36

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Mallorca

41.1%-27.4%

Draw

27.1%+5.8%

Ceuta

31.9%+21.6%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.575.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.549.9%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes54.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.553.4%

Good chance

Over 9.542.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.532.2%

Toss-up

Over 11.523.6%

Low chance

Most cornersMallorca57.2%Ceuta31.6%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.4%

Strong chance

Over 24.548.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.536.0%

Toss-up

Over 28.525.1%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.575.2%2.549.9%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.575.2%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

MallorcaWWDWL
CeutaLWWLL

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

MallorcaCeuta
League position#12 of 22#22 of 22
Record W-D-L1-0-10-0-2
Current streakL1L2
Record, home vs away1-0-00-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.27 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 41% · BTTS in 41%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Abdón PratsMallorca · key player
To score5.2%

@ 19.23

1+ on target17.2%

@ 5.81

2+ shots7.8%

@ 12.82

Shots/90 3.17SoT/90 1.3Goals/90 0.37
ZitoMallorca · in form
To score0.0%

@ ·

1+ on target50.3%

@ 1.99

2+ shots22.9%

@ 4.37

Shots/90 1.59SoT/90 1.23Goals/90 0
Vedat MuriqiMallorca · in form
To score37.1%

@ 2.70

1+ on target62.5%

@ 1.60

2+ shots71.7%

@ 1.39

Shots/90 2.88SoT/90 1.12Goals/90 0.53

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Mallorca win1.392.43
Draw4.203.69
Ceuta win8.003.13
Over 2.5 goals1.702.00
Under 2.5 goals2.102.00

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Mallorca win2.44
Draw3.70
Ceuta win3.14
Both teams to score1.83

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.33
Over 2.5 goals2.00
Over 3.5 goals3.58
Mallorca most2.44
Ceuta most3.14

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.48
Over 8.5 corners1.82
Over 9.5 corners2.35
Over 10.5 corners3.21
Mallorca most1.74
Ceuta most3.16

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.15
Over 3.5 cards1.38
Over 4.5 cards1.83
Over 5.5 cards2.69
Mallorca most2.66
Ceuta most2.27

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.36
Over 7.5 SoT1.63
Over 8.5 SoT2.08
Over 9.5 SoT2.81
Mallorca most1.54
Ceuta most4.27

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.63
Over 24.5 shots2.06
Over 26.5 shots2.78
Over 28.5 shots3.99
Mallorca most1.49
Ceuta most3.70

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.16
Over 22.5 fouls1.31
Over 24.5 fouls1.54
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 73.8% Over 7.5 61.2% Over 8.5 48.1% Over 9.5 35.6%
Most: Mallorca 65.0% Most: Ceuta 23.4%
Mallorca Over 4.2 57.1% Ceuta Over 4.2 26.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 86.9% Over 3.5 72.5% Over 4.5 54.7%
Most: Mallorca 37.6% Most: Ceuta 44.0%
Mallorca Over 1.8 68.6% Ceuta Over 1.8 72.4%

Mallorca: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Abdón Prats 3.17 1.3 0.37 17.2% 7.8% 5.2%
Zito 1.59 1.23 0 50.3% 22.9% 0.0%
Vedat Muriqi 2.88 1.12 0.53 62.5% 71.7% 37.1%
Cyle Larin 2.09 0.81 0.38 40.6% 38.8% 21.7%
Jan Virgili 1.59 0.8 0.1 40.4% 27.5% 6.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Mallorca clean sheet 28.9%
Ceuta clean sheet 23.8%
Mallorca win to nil 21.4%
Ceuta win to nil 16.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 41.1% draw 27.1% away 31.9%
double_chance
1X 68.1% 12 72.9% X2 58.9%
dnb
home 56.3% away 43.7%
btts
yes 54.7% no 45.3%
clean_sheet
home 29.0% away 23.8%
win_to_nil
home 21.5% away 16.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.1% home_by_2 12.4% home_by_3plus 7.5%
away_by_1 18.1% away_by_2 9.2% away_by_3plus 4.6%
correct_score
0-0 7.5% 0-1 7.9% 0-2 5.3%
0-3 2.2% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 9.3% 1-1 12.9% 1-2 7.6%
1-3 3.1% 1-4 1.0% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.1% 2-1 8.8% 2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.2% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.4% 3-1 4.2% 3-2 2.6%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.2% 4-1 1.5% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.5% under_0.5 7.5% over_1.5 75.2%
under_1.5 24.8% over_2.5 49.9% under_2.5 50.1%
over_3.5 28.0% under_3.5 72.0% over_4.5 13.3%
under_4.5 86.7% over_5.5 5.5% under_5.5 94.6%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 76.2% under_0.5 23.8% over_1.5 42.0%
under_1.5 58.0% over_2.5 17.5% under_2.5 82.5%
team_away
over_0.5 71.0% under_0.5 29.0% over_1.5 35.0%
under_1.5 65.0% over_2.5 12.9% under_2.5 87.2%
most
home 41.1% draw 27.1% away 31.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.5% away_+2.5 92.5% home_-1.5 19.9%
away_+1.5 80.1% home_-0.5 41.1% away_+0.5 58.9%
home_+0.5 68.1% away_-0.5 31.9% home_+1.5 86.3%
away_-1.5 13.8% home_+2.5 95.4% away_-2.5 4.6%
total_exact
exact_0 7.5% exact_1 17.3% exact_2 25.3%
exact_3 22.0% exact_4 14.7% exact_5 7.8%
exact_6 3.5% exact_7plus 2.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 29.8% draw 42.8% away 27.5%
total
over_0.5 68.7% under_0.5 31.3% over_1.5 32.4%
under_1.5 67.6% over_2.5 11.2% under_2.5 88.8%
btts
yes 19.4% no 80.6%
total_exact
exact_0 31.3% exact_1 36.4% exact_2 21.1%
exact_3 8.2% exact_4plus 3.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 53.0% draw 32.8% away 14.2%
total
over_0.5 78.7% under_0.5 21.3% over_1.5 45.7%
under_1.5 54.3% over_2.5 20.3% under_2.5 79.7%
btts
yes 23.5% no 76.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 26.5% H/D 2.7% H/A 0.6%
D/H 22.7% D/D 14.0% D/A 6.1%
A/H 5.2% A/D 7.1% A/A 15.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 67.6% under_7.5 32.4% over_8.5 55.1%
under_8.5 44.9% over_9.5 42.6% under_9.5 57.5%
over_10.5 31.2% under_10.5 68.8% over_11.5 21.7%
under_11.5 78.3% over_12.5 14.3% under_12.5 85.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.0% under_3.5 28.0% over_4.5 56.2%
under_4.5 43.8% over_5.5 40.6% under_5.5 59.4%
team_away
over_3.5 54.2% under_3.5 45.8% over_4.5 36.5%
under_4.5 63.5% over_5.5 22.5% under_5.5 77.5%
most
home 57.3% draw 11.0% away 31.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.9% away_+3.5 75.1% home_-1.5 45.8%
away_+1.5 54.2% home_-0.5 57.3% away_+0.5 42.7%
home_+0.5 68.3% away_-0.5 31.7% home_+1.5 77.9%
away_-1.5 22.1% home_+3.5 91.1% away_-3.5 8.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.4% under_22.5 38.6% over_24.5 48.4%
under_24.5 51.6% over_26.5 36.0% under_26.5 64.0%
over_28.5 25.1% under_28.5 74.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 75.5% under_10.5 24.5% over_12.5 59.4%
under_12.5 40.7% over_14.5 42.5% under_14.5 57.5%
team_away
over_10.5 48.3% under_10.5 51.7% over_12.5 30.1%
under_12.5 69.9% over_14.5 16.6% under_14.5 83.4%
most
home 67.2% draw 5.7% away 27.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 41.5% away_+4.5 58.5% home_-2.5 54.6%
away_+2.5 45.4% home_-0.5 67.2% away_+0.5 32.8%
home_+0.5 72.9% away_-0.5 27.1% home_+2.5 82.7%
away_-2.5 17.3% home_+4.5 89.8% away_-4.5 10.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 73.8% under_6.5 26.2% over_7.5 61.2%
under_7.5 38.8% over_8.5 48.1% under_8.5 51.9%
over_9.5 35.6% under_9.5 64.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.7% under_3.5 26.3% over_4.5 57.1%
under_4.5 42.9% over_5.5 40.4% under_5.5 59.6%
team_away
over_3.5 44.5% under_3.5 55.5% over_4.5 26.5%
under_4.5 73.5% over_5.5 14.0% under_5.5 86.0%
most
home 65.0% draw 11.6% away 23.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 38.7% away_+2.5 61.3% home_-0.5 65.0%
away_+0.5 35.0% home_+0.5 76.6% away_-0.5 23.4%
home_+2.5 92.0% away_-2.5 8.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 86.9% under_2.5 13.1% over_3.5 72.5%
under_3.5 27.5% over_4.5 54.7% under_4.5 45.3%
over_5.5 37.2% under_5.5 62.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 68.6% under_1.5 31.4% over_2.5 42.3%
under_2.5 57.7%
team_away
over_1.5 72.4% under_1.5 27.6% over_2.5 47.1%
under_2.5 52.9%
most
home 37.6% draw 18.4% away 44.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 21.7% away_+1.5 78.3% home_-0.5 37.6%
away_+0.5 62.4% home_+0.5 56.0% away_-0.5 44.0%
home_+1.5 73.1% away_-1.5 26.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 86.1% under_20.5 13.9% over_22.5 76.6%
under_22.5 23.4% over_24.5 64.8% under_24.5 35.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 84.1% under_9.5 15.9% over_11.5 68.8%
under_11.5 31.2% over_13.5 50.7% under_13.5 49.3%
team_away
over_9.5 80.4% under_9.5 19.6% over_11.5 63.4%
under_11.5 36.6% over_13.5 44.7% under_13.5 55.3%
most
home 50.9% draw 6.6% away 42.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 31.7% away_+3.5 68.3% home_-0.5 50.9%
away_+0.5 49.1% home_+2.5 70.0% away_-2.5 30.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.6% no 86.4%
home
yes 5.9% no 94.1%
away
yes 8.2% no 91.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Mallorca predictions · Ceuta predictions · Segunda División

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Segunda DivisiónMallorcaCeutaTrack record