Colchester vs Rochdale: model prediction
League TwoColchester or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Colchester at 56.9%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 52.7% and it landed (1 goals). We called No at 52.3% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: Colchester at 57% against Rochdale, League Two, 29 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Our number sits above the market's 42% for Colchester. The gap itself is information. • No strong lean on goals (47% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • The recent series reads 1 wins for Colchester, 2 draws and 1 for Rochdale over 4 games, 2.0 goals on average. • As a promoted side, Rochdale carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Recent form reads W3 D1 L2 for Colchester against W1 D2 L3 for Rochdale. Verdict: no bet. Trust gate: no_trust (segment historically unreliable).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
56.9%+14.7%
24.9%-2.5%
18.1%-12.3%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Colchester 1 · 2 draws · Rochdale 1 · 2.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.42 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 46% · BTTS in 46%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 64.0% | Over 7.5 | 51.1% | Over 8.5 | 38.8% | Over 9.5 | 28.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Colchester | 56.4% | Most: Rochdale | 31.1% | ||||
| Colchester Over 4.2 | 44.6% | Rochdale Over 4.2 | 26.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 77.6% | Over 3.5 | 58.5% | Over 4.5 | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Colchester | 30.7% | Most: Rochdale | 49.4% | ||
| Colchester Over 1.8 | 53.7% | Rochdale Over 1.8 | 66.8% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Colchester clean sheet | 42.1% |
|---|---|
| Rochdale clean sheet | 18.1% |
| Colchester win to nil | 33.8% |
| Rochdale win to nil | 9.9% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 56.9% | draw | 24.9% | away | 18.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 81.9% | 12 | 75.1% | X2 | 43.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 75.9% | away | 24.2% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 47.7% | no | 52.3% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 42.4% | away | 18.1% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 34.2% | away | 9.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.8% | home_by_2 | 17.8% | home_by_3plus | 14.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 12.2% | away_by_2 | 4.5% | away_by_3plus | 1.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.3% | 0-1 | 6.0% | 0-2 | 2.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.8% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 12.6% | 1-1 | 11.8% | 1-2 | 4.8% |
| 1-3 | 1.4% | 1-4 | 0.3% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 11.2% | 2-1 | 9.6% | 2-2 | 4.1% |
| 2-3 | 1.2% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.0% |
| 3-0 | 6.4% | 3-1 | 5.5% | 3-2 | 2.4% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 2.7% | 4-1 | 2.3% | 4-2 | 1.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.9% | 5-1 | 0.8% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.8% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 12.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.8% | under_0.5 | 8.3% | over_1.5 | 73.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.9% | over_2.5 | 47.3% | under_2.5 | 52.7% |
| over_3.5 | 25.7% | under_3.5 | 74.3% | over_4.5 | 11.8% |
| under_4.5 | 88.2% | over_5.5 | 4.7% | under_5.5 | 95.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 81.9% | under_0.5 | 18.1% | over_1.5 | 50.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 49.1% | over_2.5 | 24.5% | under_2.5 | 75.5% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 57.6% | under_0.5 | 42.4% | over_1.5 | 21.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 78.8% | over_2.5 | 5.6% | under_2.5 | 94.4% |
most
| home | 56.9% | draw | 24.9% | away | 18.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 14.3% | away_+2.5 | 85.7% | home_-1.5 | 32.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 67.9% | home_-0.5 | 56.9% | away_+0.5 | 43.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 81.9% | away_-0.5 | 18.1% | home_+1.5 | 94.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 5.9% | home_+2.5 | 98.6% | away_-2.5 | 1.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.3% | exact_1 | 18.6% | exact_2 | 25.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.6% | exact_4 | 13.9% | exact_5 | 7.1% |
| exact_6 | 3.1% | exact_7plus | 1.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 46.0% | draw | 38.9% | away | 15.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 71.3% | under_0.5 | 28.7% | over_1.5 | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.6% | over_2.5 | 13.1% | under_2.5 | 86.9% |
btts
| yes | 18.2% | no | 81.8% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 28.7% | exact_1 | 35.8% | exact_2 | 22.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 9.3% | exact_4plus | 3.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 42.4% | draw | 37.8% | away | 19.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.5% | under_0.5 | 25.5% | over_1.5 | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.3% | over_2.5 | 15.9% | under_2.5 | 84.1% |
btts
| yes | 22.7% | no | 77.3% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 39.6% | H/D | 5.1% | H/A | 1.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.5% | D/D | 14.7% | D/A | 7.7% |
| A/H | 2.0% | A/D | 3.7% | A/A | 9.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.4% | under_7.5 | 25.6% | over_8.5 | 63.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 36.7% | over_9.5 | 51.5% | under_9.5 | 48.5% |
| over_10.5 | 40.0% | under_10.5 | 60.0% | over_11.5 | 29.7% |
| under_11.5 | 70.3% | over_12.5 | 21.1% | under_12.5 | 78.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.4% | under_3.5 | 24.6% | over_4.5 | 60.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 39.3% | over_5.5 | 45.7% | under_5.5 | 54.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.6% | under_3.5 | 39.4% | over_4.5 | 43.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.5% | over_5.5 | 28.8% | under_5.5 | 71.2% |
most
| home | 56.2% | draw | 10.5% | away | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.6% | away_+3.5 | 74.4% | home_-1.5 | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 54.7% | home_-0.5 | 56.2% | away_+0.5 | 43.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.7% | away_-0.5 | 33.3% | home_+1.5 | 76.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.0% | home_+3.5 | 89.4% | away_-3.5 | 10.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 56.1% | under_22.5 | 43.9% | over_24.5 | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 56.7% | over_26.5 | 31.5% | under_26.5 | 68.5% |
| over_28.5 | 21.5% | under_28.5 | 78.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 68.8% | under_10.5 | 31.2% | over_12.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 48.4% | over_14.5 | 35.2% | under_14.5 | 64.8% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 49.1% | under_10.5 | 50.9% | over_12.5 | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 68.9% | over_14.5 | 17.7% | under_14.5 | 82.3% |
most
| home | 61.2% | draw | 6.2% | away | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 35.5% | away_+4.5 | 64.5% | home_-2.5 | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 51.8% | home_-0.5 | 61.2% | away_+0.5 | 38.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.4% | away_-0.5 | 32.6% | home_+2.5 | 78.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.8% | home_+4.5 | 86.6% | away_-4.5 | 13.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 64.0% | under_6.5 | 36.0% | over_7.5 | 51.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 48.9% | over_8.5 | 38.8% | under_8.5 | 61.2% |
| over_9.5 | 28.1% | under_9.5 | 71.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 61.5% | under_3.5 | 38.5% | over_4.5 | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.4% | over_5.5 | 29.9% | under_5.5 | 70.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 43.3% | under_3.5 | 56.7% | over_4.5 | 26.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 73.3% | over_5.5 | 15.0% | under_5.5 | 85.0% |
most
| home | 56.4% | draw | 12.6% | away | 31.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 31.1% | away_+2.5 | 68.9% | home_-0.5 | 56.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 43.6% | home_+0.5 | 68.9% | away_-0.5 | 31.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 87.6% | away_-2.5 | 12.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 77.6% | under_2.5 | 22.4% | over_3.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 41.5% | over_4.5 | 39.0% | under_4.5 | 61.0% |
| over_5.5 | 23.0% | under_5.5 | 77.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 53.7% | under_1.5 | 46.3% | over_2.5 | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 73.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 66.8% | under_1.5 | 33.2% | over_2.5 | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 59.7% |
most
| home | 30.7% | draw | 19.9% | away | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 15.4% | away_+1.5 | 84.6% | home_-0.5 | 30.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 69.3% | home_+0.5 | 50.6% | away_-0.5 | 49.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 70.0% | away_-1.5 | 30.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 74.6% | under_20.5 | 25.4% | over_22.5 | 60.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 39.4% | over_24.5 | 45.5% | under_24.5 | 54.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 62.2% | under_9.5 | 37.8% | over_11.5 | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 60.4% | over_13.5 | 21.2% | under_13.5 | 78.8% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 83.5% | under_9.5 | 16.5% | over_11.5 | 66.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 33.7% | over_13.5 | 46.1% | under_13.5 | 53.9% |
most
| home | 28.1% | draw | 6.8% | away | 65.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 12.4% | away_+3.5 | 87.6% | home_-0.5 | 28.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 71.9% | home_+2.5 | 49.8% | away_-2.5 | 50.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 25.7% | no | 74.3% |
|---|
home
| yes | 2.3% | no | 97.7% |
|---|
away
| yes | 24.0% | no | 76.1% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Colchester predictions · Rochdale predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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