Darmstadt vs Hannover prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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Darmstadt vs Hannover: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

2. Bundesliga
Darmstadt

LDLDL

Full time0-1Sun, 30 Aug 202612:30UK
Hannover

DDDLL

Model’s top convictions

81%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Darmstadt or draw

64%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time5 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Darmstadt 0-1 Hannover
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card
5 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Darmstadt at 41.2%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 57.5% and it missed (1 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 80.5% and it missed (1 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 64.9% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 60.6% and it missed. We called Yes at 73.7% and it missed. We called Yes at 80.2% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 54.2% and it landed (13 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 60.7% and it missed (3 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 61.7% and it landed (37 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 69.2% and it landed (10 shots on target). We called No at 80.9% and it missed.

Match data Darmstadt Hannover
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 1
Shots 11 26
Shots on target 3 7
Corners 2 11
Yellow cards 1 2
Red cards 1 0
Fouls 8 12

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
DarmstadtWin probability
41.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals80.5%High probabilityPays @ 1.24
Darmstadt or draw66.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.50
Over 8.5 corners63.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.57

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Darmstadt and Hannover on 30 August 2026: Darmstadt nose ahead at 41%. Notably, the model is warmer on Darmstadt than the market (28%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. No strong lean on goals (57% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Darmstadt, 0 draws and 2 for Hannover at 3.4 goals per match. Form guide over the last six: Darmstadt W0 D3 L3, Hannover W1 D3 L2. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.28)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners42.3%@ 2.36
Hannover win33.4%@ 2.99
Over 11.5 corners32.7%@ 3.06
Medium risk

Both teams to score60.6%@ 1.65
Draw or Hannover58.7%@ 1.70
Over 2.5 goals57.5%@ 1.74
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.7%@ 8.52
2-1 correct score8.9%@ 11.29
1-2 correct score7.9%@ 12.72

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Darmstadt

41.2%+12.8%

Draw

25.3%-0.2%

Hannover

33.4%-12.7%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.28)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.580.5%

High probability

Over 2.557.5%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes60.6%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.563.5%

Strong chance

Over 9.552.8%

Good chance

Over 10.542.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.532.7%

Toss-up

Most cornersDarmstadt49.6%Hannover39.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.573.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.561.7%

Strong chance

Over 26.549.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.536.9%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.580.5%2.557.5%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.580.5%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

DarmstadtLDLDL
HannoverDDDLL

Last 5 meetings: Darmstadt 3 · 0 draws · Hannover 2 · 3.4 goals/game.

2026-04-11Darmstadt 0-2 Hannover
2025-11-08Hannover 2-3 Darmstadt
2025-04-20Darmstadt 3-1 Hannover
2024-11-23Hannover 1-2 Darmstadt
2023-05-14Hannover 2-1 Darmstadt

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

DarmstadtHannover
League position#15 of 18#17 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-10-0-2
Current streakL1L2
Record, home vs away0-1-00-0-1
Red cards this season10

Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Darmstadt win3.252.43
Draw3.603.95
Hannover win2.052.99
Over 2.5 goals1.531.74
Under 2.5 goals2.402.35

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Darmstadt win2.42
Draw3.95
Hannover win2.99
Both teams to score1.65

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.24
Over 2.5 goals1.74
Over 3.5 goals2.85
Darmstadt most2.42
Hannover most2.99

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.30
Over 8.5 corners1.52
Over 9.5 corners1.85
Over 10.5 corners2.36
Darmstadt most2.01
Hannover most2.53

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.26
Over 3.5 cards1.65
Over 4.5 cards2.42
Over 5.5 cards4.01
Darmstadt most2.72
Hannover most2.32

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.25
Over 7.5 SoT1.45
Over 8.5 SoT1.75
Over 9.5 SoT2.21
Darmstadt most2.05
Hannover most2.57

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.36
Over 24.5 shots1.62
Over 26.5 shots2.04
Over 28.5 shots2.71
Darmstadt most1.72
Hannover most2.79

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.35
Over 22.5 fouls1.64
Over 24.5 fouls2.14
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 79.8% Over 7.5 69.2% Over 8.5 57.2% Over 9.5 45.2%
Most: Darmstadt 48.9% Most: Hannover 38.9%
Darmstadt Over 4.2 52.3% Hannover Over 4.2 45.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 79.2% Over 3.5 60.7% Over 4.5 41.3%
Most: Darmstadt 36.8% Most: Hannover 43.1%
Darmstadt Over 1.8 60.0% Hannover Over 1.8 64.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Darmstadt clean sheet 24.4%
Hannover clean sheet 20.4%
Darmstadt win to nil 18.8%
Hannover win to nil 14.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 41.3% draw 25.3% away 33.4%
double_chance
1X 66.6% 12 74.7% X2 58.8%
dnb
home 55.3% away 44.8%
btts
yes 60.6% no 39.4%
clean_sheet
home 24.5% away 20.5%
win_to_nil
home 18.9% away 14.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.3% home_by_2 12.5% home_by_3plus 8.5%
away_by_1 17.9% away_by_2 9.9% away_by_3plus 5.7%
correct_score
0-0 5.6% 0-1 6.5% 0-2 5.0%
0-3 2.3% 0-4 0.8% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 7.4% 1-1 11.7% 1-2 7.9%
1-3 3.7% 1-4 1.3% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 6.3% 2-1 8.9% 2-2 6.2%
2-3 2.9% 2-4 1.0% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 3.3% 3-1 4.7% 3-2 3.3%
3-3 1.6% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 1.3% 4-1 1.9% 4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.6% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.6% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.9%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.4% under_0.5 5.6% over_1.5 80.5%
under_1.5 19.5% over_2.5 57.5% under_2.5 42.5%
over_3.5 35.1% under_3.5 64.9% over_4.5 18.4%
under_4.5 81.6% over_5.5 8.3% under_5.5 91.7%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 79.5% under_0.5 20.5% over_1.5 47.0%
under_1.5 53.0% over_2.5 21.3% under_2.5 78.7%
team_away
over_0.5 75.5% under_0.5 24.5% over_1.5 41.1%
under_1.5 58.9% over_2.5 16.9% under_2.5 83.1%
most
home 41.3% draw 25.3% away 33.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.5% away_+2.5 91.5% home_-1.5 21.0%
away_+1.5 79.0% home_-0.5 41.3% away_+0.5 58.8%
home_+0.5 66.6% away_-0.5 33.4% home_+1.5 84.5%
away_-1.5 15.5% home_+2.5 94.3% away_-2.5 5.7%
total_exact
exact_0 5.6% exact_1 13.9% exact_2 23.0%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.8% exact_5 10.0%
exact_6 5.0% exact_7plus 3.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 24.7% draw 39.1% away 36.3%
total
over_0.5 73.7% under_0.5 26.3% over_1.5 38.6%
under_1.5 61.4% over_2.5 15.2% under_2.5 84.9%
btts
yes 23.3% no 76.7%
total_exact
exact_0 26.3% exact_1 35.1% exact_2 23.5%
exact_3 10.5% exact_4plus 4.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 45.4% draw 33.8% away 20.8%
total
over_0.5 80.2% under_0.5 19.8% over_1.5 48.1%
under_1.5 51.9% over_2.5 22.2% under_2.5 77.8%
btts
yes 28.7% no 71.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 20.5% H/D 3.1% H/A 1.0%
D/H 17.7% D/D 13.2% D/A 8.1%
A/H 5.0% A/D 8.0% A/A 23.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.8% under_7.5 23.2% over_8.5 66.0%
under_8.5 34.0% over_9.5 54.2% under_9.5 45.8%
over_10.5 42.5% under_10.5 57.5% over_11.5 31.7%
under_11.5 68.3% over_12.5 22.6% under_12.5 77.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.6% under_3.5 26.5% over_4.5 58.1%
under_4.5 41.9% over_5.5 42.7% under_5.5 57.3%
team_away
over_3.5 67.3% under_3.5 32.8% over_4.5 50.6%
under_4.5 49.4% over_5.5 35.2% under_5.5 64.9%
most
home 49.7% draw 10.8% away 39.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.6% away_+3.5 79.4% home_-1.5 39.0%
away_+1.5 61.0% home_-0.5 49.7% away_+0.5 50.3%
home_+0.5 60.5% away_-0.5 39.5% home_+1.5 70.5%
away_-1.5 29.5% home_+3.5 85.9% away_-3.5 14.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.5% under_22.5 26.6% over_24.5 61.7%
under_24.5 38.3% over_26.5 49.1% under_26.5 50.9%
over_28.5 36.9% under_28.5 63.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 78.1% under_10.5 21.9% over_12.5 62.3%
under_12.5 37.7% over_14.5 45.2% under_14.5 54.8%
team_away
over_10.5 65.0% under_10.5 35.0% over_12.5 46.4%
under_12.5 53.6% over_14.5 29.7% under_14.5 70.3%
most
home 58.1% draw 6.1% away 35.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 33.1% away_+4.5 66.9% home_-2.5 45.4%
away_+2.5 54.6% home_-0.5 58.1% away_+0.5 41.9%
home_+0.5 64.2% away_-0.5 35.8% home_+2.5 75.3%
away_-2.5 24.7% home_+4.5 84.2% away_-4.5 15.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 79.8% under_6.5 20.2% over_7.5 69.2%
under_7.5 30.9% over_8.5 57.2% under_8.5 42.8%
over_9.5 45.2% under_9.5 54.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.2% under_3.5 30.8% over_4.5 52.3%
under_4.5 47.7% over_5.5 36.3% under_5.5 63.7%
team_away
over_3.5 62.9% under_3.5 37.1% over_4.5 45.2%
under_4.5 54.9% over_5.5 29.6% under_5.5 70.4%
most
home 48.9% draw 12.3% away 38.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.0% away_+2.5 74.0% home_-0.5 48.9%
away_+0.5 51.1% home_+0.5 61.1% away_-0.5 38.9%
home_+2.5 81.6% away_-2.5 18.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 79.2% under_2.5 20.8% over_3.5 60.7%
under_3.5 39.3% over_4.5 41.3% under_4.5 58.7%
over_5.5 24.9% under_5.5 75.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 60.0% under_1.5 40.0% over_2.5 32.9%
under_2.5 67.1%
team_away
over_1.5 64.3% under_1.5 35.7% over_2.5 37.5%
under_2.5 62.5%
most
home 36.8% draw 20.1% away 43.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.0% away_+1.5 80.0% home_-0.5 36.8%
away_+0.5 63.2% home_+0.5 56.9% away_-0.5 43.1%
home_+1.5 75.1% away_-1.5 25.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 74.3% under_20.5 25.7% over_22.5 60.9%
under_22.5 39.1% over_24.5 46.7% under_24.5 53.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 71.9% under_9.5 28.1% over_11.5 51.8%
under_11.5 48.2% over_13.5 32.5% under_13.5 67.5%
team_away
over_9.5 75.3% under_9.5 24.7% over_11.5 56.0%
under_11.5 44.0% over_13.5 36.5% under_13.5 63.5%
most
home 43.4% draw 7.2% away 49.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.9% away_+3.5 76.1% home_-0.5 43.4%
away_+0.5 56.6% home_+2.5 64.7% away_-2.5 35.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 19.1% no 80.9%
home
yes 11.5% no 88.5%
away
yes 8.6% no 91.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Darmstadt predictions · Hannover predictions · 2. Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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2. BundesligaDarmstadtHannoverTrack record