Levadeiakos vs Panathinaikos: model prediction
Super League Greece
Over 1.5 goals
Levadeiakos or draw
Draw or Panathinaikos
Full time7 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was Levadeiakos at 37.6%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 54.5% and it missed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 78.5% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 67.8% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 58.5% and it missed. We called Yes at 72.0% and it landed. We called Yes at 81.4% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 66.5% and it missed (10 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 75.5% and it landed (6 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 62.3% and it landed (23 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 55.3% and it landed (8 shots on target). We called No at 75.3% and it missed.
| Match data | Levadeiakos | Panathinaikos |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 0 | 1 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 0 | 1 |
| Shots | 8 | 15 |
| Shots on target | 2 | 6 |
| Corners | 5 | 5 |
| Yellow cards | 2 | 4 |
| Red cards | 1 | 0 |
| Fouls | 18 | 19 |
Final match data.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Little between these two in the data. Levadeiakos at 38% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 31 August 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Our number sits above the market's 14% for Levadeiakos. The gap itself is information. 2) No strong lean on goals (55% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) Schedule edge: Panathinaikos have had 99 more days of rest than Levadeiakos. The run in: Levadeiakos arrive W3 D0 L3, Panathinaikos W0 D3 L3. The recent series reads 0 wins for Levadeiakos, 1 draws and 4 for Panathinaikos over 5 games, 2.0 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
37.6%+23.8%
26.1%+0.8%
36.2%-24.7%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14)
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Low chance
Shots markets
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Levadeiakos 0 · 1 draws · Panathinaikos 4 · 2.0 goals/game.
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 67.1% | Over 7.5 | 55.3% | Over 8.5 | 43.8% | Over 9.5 | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Levadeiakos | 52.4% | Most: Panathinaikos | 35.6% | ||||
| Levadeiakos Over 4.2 | 45.1% | Panathinaikos Over 4.2 | 33.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 88.7% | Over 3.5 | 75.5% | Over 4.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Levadeiakos | 35.1% | Most: Panathinaikos | 47.0% | ||
| Levadeiakos Over 1.8 | 69.1% | Panathinaikos Over 1.8 | 76.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Levadeiakos clean sheet | 24.2% |
|---|---|
| Panathinaikos clean sheet | 23.5% |
| Levadeiakos win to nil | 17.9% |
| Panathinaikos win to nil | 17.2% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 37.6% | draw | 26.1% | away | 36.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 63.8% | 12 | 73.9% | X2 | 62.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 51.0% | away | 49.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 58.5% | no | 41.5% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 24.3% | away | 23.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 18.0% | away | 17.3% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 19.6% | home_by_2 | 11.3% | home_by_3plus | 6.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 19.2% | away_by_2 | 10.8% | away_by_3plus | 6.3% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.3% | 0-1 | 7.5% | 0-2 | 5.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.7% | 0-4 | 1.0% | 0-5 | 0.3% |
| 1-0 | 7.7% | 1-1 | 12.3% | 1-2 | 8.3% |
| 1-3 | 3.9% | 1-4 | 1.4% | 1-5 | 0.4% |
| 2-0 | 6.0% | 2-1 | 8.5% | 2-2 | 6.0% |
| 2-3 | 2.8% | 2-4 | 1.0% | 2-5 | 0.3% |
| 3-0 | 2.9% | 3-1 | 4.1% | 3-2 | 2.9% |
| 3-3 | 1.4% | 3-4 | 0.5% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.0% | 4-1 | 1.5% | 4-2 | 1.1% |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.7% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.7% | under_0.5 | 6.3% | over_1.5 | 78.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 21.5% | over_2.5 | 54.5% | under_2.5 | 45.5% |
| over_3.5 | 32.2% | under_3.5 | 67.8% | over_4.5 | 16.2% |
| under_4.5 | 83.8% | over_5.5 | 7.1% | under_5.5 | 92.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 76.4% | under_0.5 | 23.6% | over_1.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.6% | over_2.5 | 17.8% | under_2.5 | 82.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 75.7% | under_0.5 | 24.3% | over_1.5 | 41.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.7% | over_2.5 | 17.0% | under_2.5 | 83.0% |
most
| home | 37.6% | draw | 26.1% | away | 36.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 6.8% | away_+2.5 | 93.2% | home_-1.5 | 18.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 81.9% | home_-0.5 | 37.6% | away_+0.5 | 62.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.8% | away_-0.5 | 36.2% | home_+1.5 | 82.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 17.1% | home_+2.5 | 93.7% | away_-2.5 | 6.3% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.3% | exact_1 | 15.2% | exact_2 | 24.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.3% | exact_4 | 16.0% | exact_5 | 9.2% |
| exact_6 | 4.4% | exact_7plus | 2.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 26.9% | draw | 40.5% | away | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 72.0% | under_0.5 | 28.0% | over_1.5 | 36.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.7% | over_2.5 | 13.6% | under_2.5 | 86.4% |
btts
| yes | 22.0% | no | 78.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 28.0% | exact_1 | 35.7% | exact_2 | 22.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 9.6% | exact_4plus | 4.0% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 37.5% | draw | 34.1% | away | 28.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 81.4% | under_0.5 | 18.6% | over_1.5 | 50.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 49.9% | over_2.5 | 23.8% | under_2.5 | 76.2% |
btts
| yes | 32.1% | no | 67.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 20.7% | H/D | 4.4% | H/A | 1.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.2% | D/D | 13.8% | D/A | 11.5% |
| A/H | 3.4% | A/D | 6.3% | A/A | 22.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 58.6% | under_7.5 | 41.4% | over_8.5 | 45.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 54.4% | over_9.5 | 33.5% | under_9.5 | 66.5% |
| over_10.5 | 23.3% | under_10.5 | 76.7% | over_11.5 | 15.3% |
| under_11.5 | 84.7% | over_12.5 | 9.6% | under_12.5 | 90.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 62.5% | under_3.5 | 37.5% | over_4.5 | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.1% | over_5.5 | 31.2% | under_5.5 | 68.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 51.6% | under_3.5 | 48.4% | over_4.5 | 34.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 65.4% | over_5.5 | 21.4% | under_5.5 | 78.6% |
most
| home | 51.7% | draw | 11.4% | away | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.6% | away_+3.5 | 79.4% | home_-1.5 | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 59.8% | home_-0.5 | 51.7% | away_+0.5 | 48.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.0% | away_-0.5 | 37.0% | home_+1.5 | 73.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.7% | home_+3.5 | 88.4% | away_-3.5 | 11.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 49.1% | under_22.5 | 50.9% | over_24.5 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 62.3% | over_26.5 | 27.6% | under_26.5 | 72.4% |
| over_28.5 | 19.2% | under_28.5 | 80.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 61.3% | under_10.5 | 38.7% | over_12.5 | 45.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 54.5% | over_14.5 | 31.3% | under_14.5 | 68.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 45.1% | under_10.5 | 54.9% | over_12.5 | 29.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 70.5% | over_14.5 | 17.8% | under_14.5 | 82.2% |
most
| home | 58.5% | draw | 5.8% | away | 35.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 34.7% | away_+4.5 | 65.3% | home_-2.5 | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 53.6% | home_-0.5 | 58.5% | away_+0.5 | 41.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.3% | away_-0.5 | 35.7% | home_+2.5 | 74.9% |
| away_-2.5 | 25.1% | home_+4.5 | 83.5% | away_-4.5 | 16.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 67.1% | under_6.5 | 32.9% | over_7.5 | 55.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 44.7% | over_8.5 | 43.8% | under_8.5 | 56.2% |
| over_9.5 | 33.2% | under_9.5 | 66.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 61.0% | under_3.5 | 39.0% | over_4.5 | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.9% | over_5.5 | 31.2% | under_5.5 | 68.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 49.2% | under_3.5 | 50.8% | over_4.5 | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 67.0% | over_5.5 | 20.6% | under_5.5 | 79.4% |
most
| home | 52.4% | draw | 11.9% | away | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 29.4% | away_+2.5 | 70.6% | home_-0.5 | 52.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.6% | home_+0.5 | 64.4% | away_-0.5 | 35.6% |
| home_+2.5 | 83.5% | away_-2.5 | 16.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 88.7% | under_2.5 | 11.3% | over_3.5 | 75.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 24.5% | over_4.5 | 58.5% | under_4.5 | 41.5% |
| over_5.5 | 41.0% | under_5.5 | 59.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 69.1% | under_1.5 | 30.9% | over_2.5 | 43.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 57.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 76.0% | under_1.5 | 24.0% | over_2.5 | 51.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 48.2% |
most
| home | 35.1% | draw | 17.9% | away | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.1% | away_+1.5 | 79.9% | home_-0.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 64.9% | home_+0.5 | 53.0% | away_-0.5 | 47.0% |
| home_+1.5 | 70.1% | away_-1.5 | 29.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 92.9% | under_20.5 | 7.1% | over_22.5 | 86.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 13.2% | over_24.5 | 78.3% | under_24.5 | 21.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 84.4% | under_9.5 | 15.6% | over_11.5 | 69.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 30.6% | over_13.5 | 51.6% | under_13.5 | 48.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 91.5% | under_9.5 | 8.5% | over_11.5 | 81.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 19.0% | over_13.5 | 66.3% | under_13.5 | 33.7% |
most
| home | 36.4% | draw | 6.1% | away | 57.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.5% | away_+3.5 | 79.5% | home_-0.5 | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.6% | home_+2.5 | 55.1% | away_-2.5 | 44.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 24.7% | no | 75.3% |
|---|
home
| yes | 10.9% | no | 89.1% |
|---|
away
| yes | 15.5% | no | 84.5% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Levadeiakos predictions · Panathinaikos predictions · Super League Greece
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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