La Coruna vs Valencia prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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La Coruna vs Valencia: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

La Liga
La Coruna

DLLDD

Full time3-1Sun, 30 Aug 202618:30UK23°C · Cloudy
Valencia

DWWDL

Model’s top convictions

70%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

La Coruna or draw

64%

Draw or Valencia

Full time5 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

La Coruna 3-1 Valencia
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card
6 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was La Coruna at 35.7%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 56.4% and it missed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 70.2% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 77.4% and it missed (4 goals). We called No at 50.1% and it missed. We called Yes at 63.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 73.7% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 51.5% and it missed (10 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 62.6% and it missed (3 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 55.0% and it landed (23 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 58.6% and it landed (8 shots on target). We called No at 86.1% and it missed.

Match data La Coruna Valencia
Goals, 1st half 2 1
Goals, 2nd half 1 0
Shots 11 12
Shots, 1st half 7 4
Shots, 2nd half 4 10
Shots on target 4 4
Corners 5 5
Yellow cards 2 1
Red cards 1 0
Fouls 14 5
Expected goals (xG) 1.41 1.02

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
La CorunaWin probability
35.7%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals70.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.42
La Coruna or draw64.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.56
Draw or Valencia64.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.56

Model read

▾

Expect a tight one: the model splits La Coruna and Valencia almost evenly, La Coruna marginally on top at 36%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 38%. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 44% with both teams to score at 50%. 3) The recent series reads 0 wins for La Coruna, 2 draws and 3 for Valencia over 5 games, 2.6 goals on average. As a promoted side, La Coruna carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The run in: La Coruna arrive W0 D3 L3, Valencia W3 D2 L1. Discipline says sit it out: outside trust zone (model prob 0.36, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners47.5%@ 2.11
Over 2.5 goals43.6%@ 2.29
Over 10.5 corners37.3%@ 2.68
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners58.4%@ 1.71
Under 2.5 goals56.4%@ 1.77
Not both teams to score50.1%@ 2.00
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.7%@ 7.33
0-1 correct score10.2%@ 9.78
1-0 correct score10.0%@ 10.00

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

La Coruna

35.7%-1.9%

Draw

28.6%-3.1%

Valencia

35.7%+5.0%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.36, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.570.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.543.6%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes49.9%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.558.4%

Good chance

Over 9.547.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.537.3%

Toss-up

Over 11.528.2%

Low chance

Most cornersLa Coruna56.8%Valencia32.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.557.8%

Good chance

Over 24.545.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.533.1%

Toss-up

Over 28.522.9%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.570.2%2.543.6%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.570.2%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

La CorunaDLLDD
ValenciaDWWDL

Last 5 meetings: La Coruna 0 · 2 draws · Valencia 3 · 2.6 goals/game.

2018-05-20Valencia 2-1 La Coruna
2018-01-13La Coruna 1-2 Valencia
2017-04-02Valencia 3-0 La Coruna
2016-10-31La Coruna 1-1 Valencia
2016-01-24La Coruna 1-1 Valencia

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

La CorunaValencia
League position#11 of 20#15 of 20
Record W-D-L0-2-00-1-1
Current streakD2L1
Record, home vs away0-1-0·
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.50 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Largie RamazaniValencia · key player
To score19.9%

@ 5.03

1+ on target50.6%

@ 1.98

2+ shots56.2%

@ 1.78

Shots/90 3.82SoT/90 1.43Goals/90 0.45
Rafa MirValencia · in form
To score5.8%

@ 17.24

1+ on target33.7%

@ 2.97

2+ shots41.2%

@ 2.43

Shots/90 4.46SoT/90 1.3Goals/90 0.19
Dani GómezValencia · in form
To score16.7%

@ 5.99

1+ on target41.9%

@ 2.39

2+ shots33.1%

@ 3.02

Shots/90 2.46SoT/90 1.13Goals/90 0.38

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
La Coruna win2.552.80
Draw3.003.50
Valencia win3.102.80
Over 2.5 goals2.382.29
Under 2.5 goals1.571.77

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

La Coruna win2.86
Draw3.47
Valencia win2.76
Both teams to score2.00

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.11
Over 1.5 goals1.42
Over 2.5 goals2.30
Over 3.5 goals4.43
La Coruna most2.86
Valencia most2.76

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.38
Over 8.5 corners1.65
Over 9.5 corners2.06
Over 10.5 corners2.72
La Coruna most1.76
Valencia most3.08

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.25
Over 3.5 cards1.60
Over 4.5 cards2.29
Over 5.5 cards3.65
La Coruna most2.48
Valencia most2.49

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.40
Over 7.5 SoT1.71
Over 8.5 SoT2.19
Over 9.5 SoT2.96
La Coruna most1.71
Valencia most3.41

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.73
Over 24.5 shots2.22
Over 26.5 shots3.02
Over 28.5 shots4.37
La Coruna most1.55
Valencia most3.38

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.29
Over 22.5 fouls1.54
Over 24.5 fouls1.95
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 71.2% Over 7.5 58.6% Over 8.5 45.7% Over 9.5 33.8%
Most: La Coruna 58.4% Most: Valencia 29.3%
La Coruna Over 4.2 50.9% Valencia Over 4.2 29.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 80.2% Over 3.5 62.6% Over 4.5 43.7%
Most: La Coruna 40.4% Most: Valencia 40.2%
La Coruna Over 1.8 63.3% Valencia Over 1.8 63.1%

Valencia: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Largie Ramazani 3.82 1.43 0.45 50.6% 56.2% 19.9%
Rafa Mir 4.46 1.3 0.19 33.7% 41.2% 5.8%
Dani Gómez 2.46 1.13 0.38 41.9% 33.1% 16.7%
Umar Sadiq 2.43 0.9 0.48 37.7% 36.5% 22.3%
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld 2.01 0.78 0.17 37.2% 33.7% 9.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

La Coruna clean sheet 29.4%
Valencia clean sheet 30.2%
La Coruna win to nil 19.9%
Valencia win to nil 20.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 34.9% draw 28.8% away 36.2%
double_chance
1X 63.8% 12 71.2% X2 65.1%
dnb
home 49.1% away 50.9%
btts
yes 49.9% no 50.1%
clean_sheet
home 29.4% away 30.2%
win_to_nil
home 19.9% away 20.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.9% home_by_2 10.1% home_by_3plus 4.9%
away_by_1 20.4% away_by_2 10.6% away_by_3plus 5.3%
correct_score
0-0 9.6% 0-1 10.2% 0-2 6.7%
0-3 2.7% 0-4 0.8% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 10.0% 1-1 13.7% 1-2 8.0%
1-3 3.3% 1-4 1.0% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.4% 2-1 7.8% 2-2 4.8%
2-3 1.9% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 2.5% 3-1 3.1% 3-2 1.9%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.8% 4-1 0.9% 4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.5% under_0.5 9.6% over_1.5 70.2%
under_1.5 29.8% over_2.5 43.6% under_2.5 56.4%
over_3.5 22.6% under_3.5 77.4% over_4.5 9.9%
under_4.5 90.1% over_5.5 3.7% under_5.5 96.3%
odd_even
odd 48.3% even 51.7%
team_home
over_0.5 69.8% under_0.5 30.2% over_1.5 33.6%
under_1.5 66.4% over_2.5 12.0% under_2.5 88.0%
team_away
over_0.5 70.6% under_0.5 29.4% over_1.5 34.6%
under_1.5 65.4% over_2.5 12.6% under_2.5 87.4%
most
home 34.9% draw 28.8% away 36.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.9% away_+2.5 95.1% home_-1.5 15.0%
away_+1.5 85.0% home_-0.5 34.9% away_+0.5 65.1%
home_+0.5 63.8% away_-0.5 36.2% home_+1.5 84.1%
away_-1.5 15.9% home_+2.5 94.7% away_-2.5 5.3%
total_exact
exact_0 9.6% exact_1 20.2% exact_2 26.7%
exact_3 21.0% exact_4 12.7% exact_5 6.2%
exact_6 2.5% exact_7plus 1.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.8% draw 45.4% away 15.9%
total
over_0.5 63.2% under_0.5 36.8% over_1.5 26.4%
under_1.5 73.6% over_2.5 8.0% under_2.5 92.0%
btts
yes 13.7% no 86.3%
total_exact
exact_0 36.8% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 18.4%
exact_3 6.1% exact_4plus 1.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 33.3% draw 39.4% away 27.3%
total
over_0.5 73.7% under_0.5 26.3% over_1.5 38.5%
under_1.5 61.5% over_2.5 15.1% under_2.5 84.9%
btts
yes 23.6% no 76.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 30.6% H/D 6.1% H/A 2.1%
D/H 15.1% D/D 17.9% D/A 12.4%
A/H 1.4% A/D 3.3% A/A 11.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 72.5% under_7.5 27.6% over_8.5 60.7%
under_8.5 39.3% over_9.5 48.5% under_9.5 51.5%
over_10.5 36.8% under_10.5 63.2% over_11.5 26.6%
under_11.5 73.4% over_12.5 18.3% under_12.5 81.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.6% under_3.5 25.5% over_4.5 59.5%
under_4.5 40.5% over_5.5 44.2% under_5.5 55.8%
team_away
over_3.5 58.2% under_3.5 41.8% over_4.5 40.8%
under_4.5 59.2% over_5.5 26.3% under_5.5 73.7%
most
home 57.0% draw 10.5% away 32.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.8% away_+3.5 74.2% home_-1.5 45.9%
away_+1.5 54.1% home_-0.5 57.0% away_+0.5 43.1%
home_+0.5 67.5% away_-0.5 32.5% home_+1.5 76.8%
away_-1.5 23.2% home_+3.5 90.0% away_-3.5 10.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 57.8% under_22.5 42.2% over_24.5 45.0%
under_24.5 55.0% over_26.5 33.1% under_26.5 66.9%
over_28.5 22.9% under_28.5 77.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 71.7% under_10.5 28.3% over_12.5 55.1%
under_12.5 44.9% over_14.5 38.7% under_14.5 61.3%
team_away
over_10.5 47.6% under_10.5 52.4% over_12.5 29.9%
under_12.5 70.1% over_14.5 16.8% under_14.5 83.2%
most
home 64.6% draw 5.9% away 29.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 39.0% away_+4.5 61.0% home_-2.5 51.9%
away_+2.5 48.1% home_-0.5 64.6% away_+0.5 35.4%
home_+0.5 70.4% away_-0.5 29.6% home_+2.5 80.6%
away_-2.5 19.4% home_+4.5 88.3% away_-4.5 11.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 71.2% under_6.5 28.8% over_7.5 58.6%
under_7.5 41.4% over_8.5 45.7% under_8.5 54.3%
over_9.5 33.8% under_9.5 66.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.1% under_3.5 31.9% over_4.5 50.9%
under_4.5 49.1% over_5.5 34.9% under_5.5 65.1%
team_away
over_3.5 47.7% under_3.5 52.3% over_4.5 29.9%
under_4.5 70.1% over_5.5 16.8% under_5.5 83.2%
most
home 58.4% draw 12.3% away 29.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 32.8% away_+2.5 67.2% home_-0.5 58.4%
away_+0.5 41.6% home_+0.5 70.7% away_-0.5 29.3%
home_+2.5 88.6% away_-2.5 11.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 80.2% under_2.5 19.8% over_3.5 62.6%
under_3.5 37.4% over_4.5 43.7% under_4.5 56.3%
over_5.5 27.4% under_5.5 72.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 63.3% under_1.5 36.7% over_2.5 37.0%
under_2.5 63.0%
team_away
over_1.5 63.1% under_1.5 36.9% over_2.5 36.8%
under_2.5 63.2%
most
home 40.4% draw 19.5% away 40.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 23.3% away_+1.5 76.7% home_-0.5 40.4%
away_+0.5 59.6% home_+0.5 59.9% away_-0.5 40.2%
home_+1.5 76.9% away_-1.5 23.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 77.4% under_20.5 22.6% over_22.5 65.0%
under_22.5 35.0% over_24.5 51.2% under_24.5 48.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 75.9% under_9.5 24.1% over_11.5 57.1%
under_11.5 42.9% over_13.5 37.9% under_13.5 62.1%
team_away
over_9.5 75.6% under_9.5 24.4% over_11.5 56.8%
under_11.5 43.2% over_13.5 37.5% under_13.5 62.5%
most
home 46.7% draw 7.0% away 46.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.1% away_+3.5 72.9% home_-0.5 46.7%
away_+0.5 53.3% home_+2.5 67.2% away_-2.5 32.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.9% no 86.1%
home
yes 8.9% no 91.1%
away
yes 5.5% no 94.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: La Coruna predictions · Valencia predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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