Tottenham vs Newcastle prediction & probabilities (2026-08-29)

By /

Tottenham vs Newcastle: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Premier League
Tottenham

WDLWL

Full time0-2Sat, 29 Aug 202617:30UK19°C · Rain
Newcastle

WDWLD

Model’s top convictions

80%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Over 8.5 corners

62%

Tottenham or draw

Full time0 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Tottenham 0-2 Newcastle
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✕ Both teams to score
0 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Tottenham at 38.0%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 56.4% and it missed (2 goals). We called Yes at 59.9% and it missed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
TottenhamWin probability
38.0%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals79.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.25
Over 8.5 corners64.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.56
Tottenham or draw62.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.61

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Tottenham and Newcastle on 29 August 2026: Tottenham nose ahead at 38%. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Tottenham higher (42%) than our model does. • Totals sit close to the fence: 56% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 60%. • The run in: Tottenham arrive W3 D1 L2, Newcastle W2 D2 L2. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Tottenham, 1 draws and 4 for Newcastle at 3.4 goals per match. Richarlison drives the home shot volume, 1.2 on target per 90. Squad notes: Tottenham have Kudus a doubt, Xavi ruled out, Maddison a doubt, Odobert ruled out. Discipline says sit it out: outside trust zone (model prob 0.38, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners44.3%@ 2.26
Newcastle win38.0%@ 2.64
Over 11.5 corners35.4%@ 2.82
Medium risk

Both teams to score59.9%@ 1.67
Over 2.5 goals56.4%@ 1.77
Over 9.5 corners54.0%@ 1.85
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.0%@ 8.35
1-2 correct score8.4%@ 11.93
2-1 correct score8.4%@ 11.93

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Tottenham

38.0%-4.5%

Draw

24.1%-0.8%

Newcastle

38.0%+5.4%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.38, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.579.8%

High probability

Over 2.556.4%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes59.9%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.564.0%

Strong chance

Over 9.554.0%

Good chance

Over 10.544.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.535.4%

Toss-up

Most cornersTottenham52.5%Newcastle37.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.562.2%

Strong chance

Over 24.550.6%

Good chance

Over 26.539.3%

Toss-up

Over 28.529.0%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.579.8%2.556.4%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.579.8%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

TottenhamWDLWL
NewcastleWDWLD

Last 5 meetings: Tottenham 0 · 1 draws · Newcastle 4 · 3.4 goals/game.

2026-02-10Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle
2025-12-02Newcastle 2-2 Tottenham
2025-01-04Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle
2024-09-01Newcastle 2-1 Tottenham
2024-04-13Newcastle 4-0 Tottenham

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

TottenhamNewcastle
League position#19 of 20#11 of 20
Record W-D-L0-0-10-1-0
Current streakL1D1
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

RicharlisonTottenham · key player
To score27.7%

@ 3.61

1+ on target51.3%

@ 1.95

2+ shots49.9%

@ 2.00

Shots/90 2.84SoT/90 1.22Goals/90 0.55
Alexander IsakNewcastle · key player
To score51.1%

@ 1.96

1+ on target74.7%

@ 1.34

2+ shots79.1%

@ 1.26

Shots/90 3.2SoT/90 1.5Goals/90 0.78
Son Heung-MinTottenham · in form
To score16.3%

@ 6.13

1+ on target56.1%

@ 1.78

2+ shots56.4%

@ 1.77

Shots/90 2.44SoT/90 1.06Goals/90 0.23
Harvey BarnesNewcastle · in form
To score20.9%

@ 4.78

1+ on target44.8%

@ 2.23

2+ shots52.4%

@ 1.91

Shots/90 2.92SoT/90 0.99Goals/90 0.39
Dominic SolankeTottenham · in form
To score24.6%

@ 4.07

1+ on target54.6%

@ 1.83

2+ shots55.5%

@ 1.80

Shots/90 2.24SoT/90 0.95Goals/90 0.34
Anthony GordonNewcastle · in form
To score17.6%

@ 5.68

1+ on target47.0%

@ 2.13

2+ shots54.0%

@ 1.85

Shots/90 2.25SoT/90 0.79Goals/90 0.24

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Tottenham win2.252.64
Draw3.754.15
Newcastle win2.902.64
Over 2.5 goals1.621.77
Under 2.5 goals2.302.29

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Tottenham win2.69
Draw3.89
Newcastle win2.69
Both teams to score1.67

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.25
Over 2.5 goals1.77
Over 3.5 goals2.94
Tottenham most2.69
Newcastle most2.69

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.28
Over 8.5 corners1.47
Over 9.5 corners1.77
Over 10.5 corners2.22
Tottenham most1.90
Newcastle most2.66

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.25
Over 3.5 cards1.61
Over 4.5 cards2.33
Over 5.5 cards3.80
Tottenham most2.39
Newcastle most2.61

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.39
Over 7.5 SoT1.66
Over 8.5 SoT2.07
Over 9.5 SoT2.71
Tottenham most2.04
Newcastle most2.59

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.61
Over 24.5 shots1.98
Over 26.5 shots2.55
Over 28.5 shots3.45
Tottenham most1.70
Newcastle most2.81

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.46
Over 22.5 fouls1.89
Over 24.5 fouls2.67

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • KudusTottenhamDoubtful75% to play
  • XaviTottenhamOut0% to play
  • MaddisonTottenhamDoubtful75% to play
  • OdobertTottenhamOut0% to play
  • KulusevskiTottenhamOut0% to play
  • BurnNewcastleOut0% to play
  • LivramentoNewcastleOut0% to play
  • JoelintonNewcastleOut0% to play
  • OsulaNewcastleOut0% to play
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 71.9% Over 7.5 60.2% Over 8.5 48.2% Over 9.5 36.9%
Most: Tottenham 49.1% Most: Newcastle 38.7%
Tottenham Over 4.2 46.0% Newcastle Over 4.2 38.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 80.3% Over 3.5 62.3% Over 4.5 42.9%
Most: Tottenham 41.8% Most: Newcastle 38.3%
Tottenham Over 1.8 64.5% Newcastle Over 1.8 62.1%

Tottenham: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Richarlison 2.84 1.22 0.55 51.3% 49.9% 27.7%
Son Heung-Min 2.44 1.06 0.23 56.1% 56.4% 16.3%
Dominic Solanke 2.24 0.95 0.34 54.6% 55.5% 24.6%
James Maddison 1.92 0.83 0.47 30.5% 20.6% 18.6%
Brennan Johnson 1.98 0.73 0.45 36.1% 34.3% 24.1%

Newcastle: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Alexander Isak 3.2 1.5 0.78 74.7% 79.1% 51.1%
Harvey Barnes 2.92 0.99 0.39 44.8% 52.4% 20.9%
Anthony Gordon 2.25 0.79 0.24 47.0% 54.0% 17.6%
Jacob Murphy 1.91 0.63 0.25 34.1% 36.1% 15.3%
Yoane Wissa 2.63 0.62 0.15 18.2% 20.9% 4.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Tottenham clean sheet 22.9%
Newcastle clean sheet 22.9%
Tottenham win to nil 17.0%
Newcastle win to nil 17.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 37.1% draw 25.7% away 37.2%
double_chance
1X 62.8% 12 74.3% X2 62.9%
dnb
home 50.0% away 50.0%
btts
yes 59.9% no 40.1%
clean_sheet
home 23.0% away 23.0%
win_to_nil
home 17.1% away 17.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.2% home_by_2 11.1% home_by_3plus 6.8%
away_by_1 19.2% away_by_2 11.1% away_by_3plus 6.8%
correct_score
0-0 5.9% 0-1 7.2% 0-2 5.7%
0-3 2.8% 0-4 1.0% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 7.2% 1-1 12.0% 1-2 8.4%
1-3 4.1% 1-4 1.5% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 5.7% 2-1 8.4% 2-2 6.2%
2-3 3.0% 2-4 1.1% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 2.8% 3-1 4.1% 3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.5% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 1.0% 4-1 1.5% 4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.8%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.1% under_0.5 5.9% over_1.5 79.8%
under_1.5 20.3% over_2.5 56.4% under_2.5 43.6%
over_3.5 34.0% under_3.5 66.0% over_4.5 17.6%
under_4.5 82.4% over_5.5 7.9% under_5.5 92.1%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 77.0% under_0.5 23.0% over_1.5 43.2%
under_1.5 56.8% over_2.5 18.4% under_2.5 81.6%
team_away
over_0.5 77.0% under_0.5 23.0% over_1.5 43.3%
under_1.5 56.7% over_2.5 18.5% under_2.5 81.6%
most
home 37.1% draw 25.7% away 37.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.8% away_+2.5 93.2% home_-1.5 17.9%
away_+1.5 82.1% home_-0.5 37.1% away_+0.5 62.9%
home_+0.5 62.8% away_-0.5 37.2% home_+1.5 82.1%
away_-1.5 18.0% home_+2.5 93.2% away_-2.5 6.8%
total_exact
exact_0 5.9% exact_1 14.4% exact_2 23.4%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.5% exact_5 9.7%
exact_6 4.8% exact_7plus 3.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 24.0% draw 37.0% away 39.0%
total
over_0.5 76.5% under_0.5 23.5% over_1.5 42.5%
under_1.5 57.5% over_2.5 17.8% under_2.5 82.2%
btts
yes 25.8% no 74.2%
total_exact
exact_0 23.5% exact_1 34.0% exact_2 24.7%
exact_3 11.9% exact_4plus 5.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.7% draw 35.7% away 27.6%
total
over_0.5 79.0% under_0.5 21.1% over_1.5 46.2%
under_1.5 53.8% over_2.5 20.6% under_2.5 79.4%
btts
yes 29.0% no 71.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 18.6% H/D 3.8% H/A 1.5%
D/H 13.6% D/D 13.2% D/A 10.2%
A/H 3.6% A/D 7.2% A/A 28.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 78.1% under_7.5 21.9% over_8.5 67.8%
under_8.5 32.2% over_9.5 56.5% under_9.5 43.5%
over_10.5 45.1% under_10.5 54.9% over_11.5 34.5%
under_11.5 65.5% over_12.5 25.3% under_12.5 74.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.0% under_3.5 25.0% over_4.5 60.8%
under_4.5 39.2% over_5.5 46.4% under_5.5 53.6%
team_away
over_3.5 65.4% under_3.5 34.6% over_4.5 49.4%
under_4.5 50.6% over_5.5 34.8% under_5.5 65.2%
most
home 52.7% draw 9.8% away 37.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.9% away_+3.5 75.1% home_-1.5 42.7%
away_+1.5 57.3% home_-0.5 52.7% away_+0.5 47.3%
home_+0.5 62.5% away_-0.5 37.5% home_+1.5 71.5%
away_-1.5 28.5% home_+3.5 85.7% away_-3.5 14.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 62.2% under_22.5 37.8% over_24.5 50.6%
under_24.5 49.4% over_26.5 39.3% under_26.5 60.7%
over_28.5 29.0% under_28.5 71.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 70.2% under_10.5 29.8% over_12.5 54.8%
under_12.5 45.2% over_14.5 39.7% under_14.5 60.3%
team_away
over_10.5 54.8% under_10.5 45.2% over_12.5 38.1%
under_12.5 61.9% over_14.5 24.4% under_14.5 75.6%
most
home 58.7% draw 5.7% away 35.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.6% away_+4.5 64.4% home_-2.5 47.0%
away_+2.5 53.0% home_-0.5 58.7% away_+0.5 41.3%
home_+0.5 64.4% away_-0.5 35.6% home_+2.5 74.7%
away_-2.5 25.3% home_+4.5 83.1% away_-4.5 16.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 71.9% under_6.5 28.1% over_7.5 60.3%
under_7.5 39.8% over_8.5 48.2% under_8.5 51.8%
over_9.5 36.9% under_9.5 63.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 62.7% under_3.5 37.3% over_4.5 46.0%
under_4.5 54.0% over_5.5 31.3% under_5.5 68.7%
team_away
over_3.5 55.6% under_3.5 44.4% over_4.5 38.5%
under_4.5 61.5% over_5.5 24.6% under_5.5 75.4%
most
home 49.1% draw 12.2% away 38.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.3% away_+2.5 73.7% home_-0.5 49.1%
away_+0.5 50.9% home_+0.5 61.3% away_-0.5 38.7%
home_+2.5 81.6% away_-2.5 18.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 80.3% under_2.5 19.7% over_3.5 62.3%
under_3.5 37.7% over_4.5 42.9% under_4.5 57.1%
over_5.5 26.3% under_5.5 73.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 64.5% under_1.5 35.6% over_2.5 37.6%
under_2.5 62.4%
team_away
over_1.5 62.1% under_1.5 37.9% over_2.5 35.1%
under_2.5 64.9%
most
home 41.8% draw 19.9% away 38.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 24.0% away_+1.5 76.0% home_-0.5 41.8%
away_+0.5 58.2% home_+0.5 61.7% away_-0.5 38.3%
home_+1.5 78.7% away_-1.5 21.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 68.5% under_20.5 31.5% over_22.5 52.9%
under_22.5 47.1% over_24.5 37.4% under_24.5 62.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 75.4% under_9.5 24.7% over_11.5 54.4%
under_11.5 45.6% over_13.5 33.4% under_13.5 66.6%
team_away
over_9.5 64.6% under_9.5 35.4% over_11.5 41.7%
under_11.5 58.3% over_13.5 22.4% under_13.5 77.6%
most
home 55.0% draw 7.8% away 37.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 31.7% away_+3.5 68.3% home_-0.5 55.0%
away_+0.5 45.0% home_+2.5 76.6% away_-2.5 23.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 9.1% no 90.9%
home
yes 4.7% no 95.3%
away
yes 4.6% no 95.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Tottenham predictions · Newcastle predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

Premier LeagueTottenhamNewcastleTrack record