Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis: model prediction
Super League GreecePanetolikos or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Panetolikos at 38.5%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 62.6% and it missed (4 goals). We called No at 55.3% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Little between these two in the data. Panetolikos at 38% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 23 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Our number sits above the market's 34% for Panetolikos. The gap itself is information. • This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 37% with both teams to score at 45%. • Form guide over the last six: Panetolikos W1 D3 L2, Asteras Tripolis W3 D2 L1. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Panetolikos, 1 draws and 3 for Asteras Tripolis, averaging 2.8 goals a game. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.014 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
38.5%+4.0%
30.5%-0.4%
31.0%-3.5%
conservative EV -0.014 <= 0
Goals markets
Strong chance
Toss-up
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Panetolikos 1 · 1 draws · Asteras Tripolis 3 · 2.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
Panetolikos
Asteras Tripolis44.4%47.2%
47.2%50.0%
19.4%25.0%
League averages this season: 2.57 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 49%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 66.4% | Over 7.5 | 54.5% | Over 8.5 | 42.9% | Over 9.5 | 32.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Panetolikos | 50.0% | Most: Asteras Tripolis | 37.9% | ||||
| Panetolikos Over 4.2 | 42.8% | Asteras Tripolis Over 4.2 | 34.1% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 87.0% | Over 3.5 | 72.7% | Over 4.5 | 54.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Panetolikos | 29.8% | Most: Asteras Tripolis | 52.4% | ||
| Panetolikos Over 1.8 | 63.1% | Asteras Tripolis Over 1.8 | 76.8% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Panetolikos clean sheet | 36.1% |
|---|---|
| Asteras Tripolis clean sheet | 31.1% |
| Panetolikos win to nil | 24.2% |
| Asteras Tripolis win to nil | 19.2% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 38.5% | draw | 30.5% | away | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 69.0% | 12 | 69.5% | X2 | 61.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 55.4% | away | 44.6% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 44.7% | no | 55.3% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 36.1% | away | 31.1% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 24.2% | away | 19.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.0% | home_by_2 | 11.2% | home_by_3plus | 5.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 19.1% | away_by_2 | 8.5% | away_by_3plus | 3.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 11.9% | 0-1 | 10.8% | 0-2 | 5.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.0% | 0-4 | 0.5% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | 1-1 | 14.0% | 1-2 | 6.8% |
| 1-3 | 2.3% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 7.6% | 2-1 | 7.8% | 2-2 | 4.0% |
| 2-3 | 1.4% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 3.0% | 3-1 | 3.0% | 3-2 | 1.6% |
| 3-3 | 0.5% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 0.9% | 4-1 | 0.9% | 4-2 | 0.4% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.0% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 14.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 88.1% | under_0.5 | 11.9% | over_1.5 | 64.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 35.2% | over_2.5 | 37.4% | under_2.5 | 62.6% |
| over_3.5 | 17.8% | under_3.5 | 82.2% | over_4.5 | 7.1% |
| under_4.5 | 92.9% | over_5.5 | 2.5% | under_5.5 | 97.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.0% | even | 52.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 68.9% | under_0.5 | 31.1% | over_1.5 | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.4% | over_2.5 | 11.4% | under_2.5 | 88.6% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 63.9% | under_0.5 | 36.1% | over_1.5 | 27.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.9% | over_2.5 | 8.4% | under_2.5 | 91.6% |
most
| home | 38.5% | draw | 30.5% | away | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 5.4% | away_+2.5 | 94.6% | home_-1.5 | 16.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 83.5% | home_-0.5 | 38.5% | away_+0.5 | 61.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.0% | away_-0.5 | 31.0% | home_+1.5 | 88.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 11.9% | home_+2.5 | 96.6% | away_-2.5 | 3.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 11.9% | exact_1 | 23.2% | exact_2 | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 19.5% | exact_4 | 10.7% | exact_5 | 4.7% |
| exact_6 | 1.7% | exact_7plus | 0.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 28.6% | draw | 44.6% | away | 26.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 66.0% | under_0.5 | 34.0% | over_1.5 | 29.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.6% | over_2.5 | 9.6% | under_2.5 | 90.4% |
btts
| yes | 17.4% | no | 82.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 34.0% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 19.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.1% | exact_4plus | 2.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 31.0% | draw | 45.6% | away | 23.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 64.4% | under_0.5 | 35.6% | over_1.5 | 27.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.4% | over_2.5 | 8.6% | under_2.5 | 91.4% |
btts
| yes | 16.1% | no | 83.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 23.3% | H/D | 4.3% | H/A | 1.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.8% | D/D | 20.3% | D/A | 10.4% |
| A/H | 1.7% | A/D | 5.1% | A/A | 20.0% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 65.5% | under_7.5 | 34.5% | over_8.5 | 52.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 47.1% | over_9.5 | 40.6% | under_9.5 | 59.4% |
| over_10.5 | 29.5% | under_10.5 | 70.5% | over_11.5 | 20.3% |
| under_11.5 | 79.7% | over_12.5 | 13.4% | under_12.5 | 86.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 67.4% | under_3.5 | 32.6% | over_4.5 | 51.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 48.6% | over_5.5 | 36.4% | under_5.5 | 63.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 55.6% | under_3.5 | 44.4% | over_4.5 | 38.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 61.4% | over_5.5 | 24.7% | under_5.5 | 75.3% |
most
| home | 52.8% | draw | 10.9% | away | 36.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.4% | away_+3.5 | 77.6% | home_-1.5 | 41.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 58.3% | home_-0.5 | 52.8% | away_+0.5 | 47.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.7% | away_-0.5 | 36.3% | home_+1.5 | 73.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.5% | home_+3.5 | 88.1% | away_-3.5 | 11.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 50.7% | under_22.5 | 49.3% | over_24.5 | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 60.8% | over_26.5 | 28.9% | under_26.5 | 71.1% |
| over_28.5 | 20.2% | under_28.5 | 79.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 64.0% | under_10.5 | 36.0% | over_12.5 | 48.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 51.7% | over_14.5 | 33.8% | under_14.5 | 66.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 44.5% | under_10.5 | 55.5% | over_12.5 | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 71.2% | over_14.5 | 17.2% | under_14.5 | 82.8% |
most
| home | 60.9% | draw | 5.7% | away | 33.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.0% | away_+4.5 | 63.0% | home_-2.5 | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 51.1% | home_-0.5 | 60.9% | away_+0.5 | 39.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.6% | away_-0.5 | 33.4% | home_+2.5 | 76.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 23.2% | home_+4.5 | 85.0% | away_-4.5 | 15.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 66.4% | under_6.5 | 33.6% | over_7.5 | 54.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 45.5% | over_8.5 | 42.9% | under_8.5 | 57.1% |
| over_9.5 | 32.3% | under_9.5 | 67.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 58.9% | under_3.5 | 41.1% | over_4.5 | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.2% | over_5.5 | 29.1% | under_5.5 | 70.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 50.4% | under_3.5 | 49.6% | over_4.5 | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 65.9% | over_5.5 | 21.5% | under_5.5 | 78.5% |
most
| home | 50.0% | draw | 12.2% | away | 37.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 27.2% | away_+2.5 | 72.9% | home_-0.5 | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.0% | home_+0.5 | 62.1% | away_-0.5 | 37.9% |
| home_+2.5 | 82.1% | away_-2.5 | 17.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 87.0% | under_2.5 | 13.0% | over_3.5 | 72.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 27.3% | over_4.5 | 54.9% | under_4.5 | 45.1% |
| over_5.5 | 37.4% | under_5.5 | 62.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 63.1% | under_1.5 | 36.9% | over_2.5 | 36.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 63.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 76.9% | under_1.5 | 23.2% | over_2.5 | 53.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 47.0% |
most
| home | 29.8% | draw | 17.8% | away | 52.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 16.0% | away_+1.5 | 84.0% | home_-0.5 | 29.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 70.2% | home_+0.5 | 47.6% | away_-0.5 | 52.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 65.7% | away_-1.5 | 34.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 86.4% | under_20.5 | 13.6% | over_22.5 | 77.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 22.8% | over_24.5 | 65.8% | under_24.5 | 34.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 79.8% | under_9.5 | 20.2% | over_11.5 | 63.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 37.0% | over_13.5 | 44.5% | under_13.5 | 55.5% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 84.8% | under_9.5 | 15.2% | over_11.5 | 70.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 29.8% | over_13.5 | 52.7% | under_13.5 | 47.3% |
most
| home | 41.1% | draw | 6.4% | away | 52.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.7% | away_+3.5 | 76.3% | home_-0.5 | 41.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 58.9% | home_+2.5 | 60.4% | away_-2.5 | 39.6% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 25.5% | no | 74.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 11.5% | no | 88.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 15.7% | no | 84.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Panetolikos predictions · Asteras Tripolis predictions · Super League Greece
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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