West Ham vs Charlton: model prediction
ChampionshipOver 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Draw or Charlton
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Charlton at 36.4%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 58.6% and it missed (3 goals). We called No at 51.9% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"36% on Charlton is a measurement, not a promise." West Ham versus Charlton in the Championship on 22 August 2026 is finely balanced. Charlton edge it at 36%, but the gap to the field is slim. Our number sits above the market's 10% for Charlton. The gap itself is information. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 41% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 48%. As a promoted side, West Ham carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Valentín Castellanos drives the home shot volume, 1.3 on target per 90. Recent form reads W0 D1 L0 for West Ham against W2 D1 L3 for Charlton. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
34.2%-37.3%
29.4%+11.0%
36.4%+26.3%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Toss-up
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
West HamCharltonPlayers to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 3.51
@ 1.45
@ 1.31
@ 5.10
@ 2.54
@ 3.01
@ 3.77
@ 1.68
@ 1.47
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 66.5% | Over 7.5 | 53.5% | Over 8.5 | 40.9% | Over 9.5 | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: West Ham | 57.9% | Most: Charlton | 29.6% | ||||
| West Ham Over 4.2 | 47.1% | Charlton Over 4.2 | 27.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 71.0% | Over 3.5 | 50.1% | Over 4.5 | 30.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: West Ham | 28.7% | Most: Charlton | 50.3% | ||
| West Ham Over 1.8 | 46.4% | Charlton Over 1.8 | 62.3% |
West Ham: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentín Castellanos | 3.15 | 1.32 | 0.38 | 68.8% | 76.6% | 28.5% |
| Callum Wilson | 2.78 | 1.17 | 0.51 | 39.3% | 33.2% | 19.6% |
| Jarrod Bowen | 2.36 | 0.91 | 0.31 | 59.4% | 67.8% | 26.5% |
| Niclas Füllkrug | 1.91 | 0.76 | 0.23 | 32.8% | 26.4% | 11.3% |
| Mohammed Kudus | 2.58 | 0.74 | 0.18 | 49.1% | 68.1% | 15.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| West Ham clean sheet | 30.3% |
|---|---|
| Charlton clean sheet | 31.8% |
| West Ham win to nil | 20.0% |
| Charlton win to nil | 21.4% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 34.2% | draw | 29.4% | away | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 63.6% | 12 | 70.6% | X2 | 65.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 48.4% | away | 51.6% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 48.1% | no | 51.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 30.4% | away | 31.8% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 20.1% | away | 21.5% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 19.9% | home_by_2 | 9.8% | home_by_3plus | 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.7% | away_by_2 | 10.6% | away_by_3plus | 5.1% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 10.3% | 0-1 | 10.9% | 0-2 | 6.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.7% | 0-4 | 0.8% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | 1-1 | 13.8% | 1-2 | 7.9% |
| 1-3 | 3.1% | 1-4 | 0.9% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 6.3% | 2-1 | 7.6% | 2-2 | 4.5% |
| 2-3 | 1.8% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 2.4% | 3-1 | 2.9% | 3-2 | 1.7% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.7% | 4-1 | 0.8% | 4-2 | 0.5% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 89.7% | under_0.5 | 10.3% | over_1.5 | 68.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 31.6% | over_2.5 | 41.4% | under_2.5 | 58.6% |
| over_3.5 | 20.8% | under_3.5 | 79.2% | over_4.5 | 8.8% |
| under_4.5 | 91.2% | over_5.5 | 3.2% | under_5.5 | 96.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.2% | even | 51.8% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 68.2% | under_0.5 | 31.8% | over_1.5 | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.2% | over_2.5 | 10.9% | under_2.5 | 89.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 69.6% | under_0.5 | 30.4% | over_1.5 | 33.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.6% | over_2.5 | 11.9% | under_2.5 | 88.1% |
most
| home | 34.2% | draw | 29.4% | away | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.5% | away_+2.5 | 95.5% | home_-1.5 | 14.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 85.7% | home_-0.5 | 34.2% | away_+0.5 | 65.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.6% | away_-0.5 | 36.4% | home_+1.5 | 84.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 15.7% | home_+2.5 | 94.9% | away_-2.5 | 5.1% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 10.3% | exact_1 | 21.3% | exact_2 | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.5% | exact_4 | 12.0% | exact_5 | 5.6% |
| exact_6 | 2.2% | exact_7plus | 1.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 43.8% | draw | 43.4% | away | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 64.7% | under_0.5 | 35.3% | over_1.5 | 27.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.1% | over_2.5 | 8.8% | under_2.5 | 91.2% |
btts
| yes | 13.1% | no | 86.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 35.3% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 19.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.6% | exact_4plus | 2.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.3% | draw | 35.6% | away | 34.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 79.4% | under_0.5 | 20.6% | over_1.5 | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.2% | over_2.5 | 21.1% | under_2.5 | 78.9% |
btts
| yes | 29.8% | no | 70.2% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 32.3% | H/D | 7.8% | H/A | 3.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.1% | D/D | 15.4% | D/A | 14.8% |
| A/H | 1.1% | A/D | 2.5% | A/A | 9.3% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 79.4% | under_7.5 | 20.6% | over_8.5 | 69.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 30.8% | over_9.5 | 57.8% | under_9.5 | 42.2% |
| over_10.5 | 46.2% | under_10.5 | 53.8% | over_11.5 | 35.2% |
| under_11.5 | 64.8% | over_12.5 | 25.6% | under_12.5 | 74.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 81.4% | under_3.5 | 18.7% | over_4.5 | 68.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 31.7% | over_5.5 | 53.9% | under_5.5 | 46.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.7% | under_3.5 | 39.4% | over_4.5 | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.7% | over_5.5 | 28.3% | under_5.5 | 71.7% |
most
| home | 61.9% | draw | 9.7% | away | 28.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 31.0% | away_+3.5 | 69.0% | home_-1.5 | 51.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 48.6% | home_-0.5 | 61.9% | away_+0.5 | 38.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.6% | away_-0.5 | 28.4% | home_+1.5 | 80.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 20.0% | home_+3.5 | 91.6% | away_-3.5 | 8.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 64.4% | under_22.5 | 35.6% | over_24.5 | 52.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 48.0% | over_26.5 | 39.7% | under_26.5 | 60.3% |
| over_28.5 | 28.6% | under_28.5 | 71.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 78.0% | under_10.5 | 22.0% | over_12.5 | 63.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 37.0% | over_14.5 | 46.9% | under_14.5 | 53.1% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 48.6% | under_10.5 | 51.4% | over_12.5 | 30.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 69.2% | over_14.5 | 17.6% | under_14.5 | 82.4% |
most
| home | 69.2% | draw | 5.4% | away | 25.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 44.7% | away_+4.5 | 55.3% | home_-2.5 | 57.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 42.7% | home_-0.5 | 69.2% | away_+0.5 | 30.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 74.6% | away_-0.5 | 25.4% | home_+2.5 | 83.6% |
| away_-2.5 | 16.4% | home_+4.5 | 90.3% | away_-4.5 | 9.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 66.5% | under_6.5 | 33.6% | over_7.5 | 53.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 46.5% | over_8.5 | 40.9% | under_8.5 | 59.1% |
| over_9.5 | 29.6% | under_9.5 | 70.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 64.3% | under_3.5 | 35.7% | over_4.5 | 47.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 52.9% | over_5.5 | 31.8% | under_5.5 | 68.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 44.1% | under_3.5 | 55.9% | over_4.5 | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 73.0% | over_5.5 | 15.0% | under_5.5 | 85.0% |
most
| home | 57.9% | draw | 12.5% | away | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 32.2% | away_+2.5 | 67.8% | home_-0.5 | 57.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 42.1% | home_+0.5 | 70.4% | away_-0.5 | 29.6% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.5% | away_-2.5 | 11.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 71.1% | under_2.5 | 29.0% | over_3.5 | 50.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 49.9% | over_4.5 | 30.8% | under_4.5 | 69.2% |
| over_5.5 | 16.7% | under_5.5 | 83.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 46.4% | under_1.5 | 53.6% | over_2.5 | 20.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 79.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 62.3% | under_1.5 | 37.7% | over_2.5 | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 64.7% |
most
| home | 28.7% | draw | 21.0% | away | 50.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 13.4% | away_+1.5 | 86.6% | home_-0.5 | 28.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 71.3% | home_+0.5 | 49.7% | away_-0.5 | 50.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 70.3% | away_-1.5 | 29.7% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 57.7% | under_20.5 | 42.3% | over_22.5 | 42.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 58.0% | over_24.5 | 27.9% | under_24.5 | 72.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 52.1% | under_9.5 | 47.9% | over_11.5 | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 70.0% | over_13.5 | 14.4% | under_13.5 | 85.6% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 71.8% | under_9.5 | 28.2% | over_11.5 | 50.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 49.3% | over_13.5 | 30.8% | under_13.5 | 69.2% |
most
| home | 31.7% | draw | 7.5% | away | 60.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 14.0% | away_+3.5 | 86.0% | home_-0.5 | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 68.3% | home_+2.5 | 55.0% | away_-2.5 | 45.0% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 8.5% | no | 91.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 6.7% | no | 93.3% |
|---|
away
| yes | 2.0% | no | 98.1% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: West Ham predictions · Charlton predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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