Preston vs Wolves: model prediction
ChampionshipPreston or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Preston at 48.5%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 52.8% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 51.0% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
A measured edge to Preston: 48% is the model's line for this Championship meeting on 22 August 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Preston than the market (21%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 47% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 51%. 3) The recent series reads 1 wins for Preston, 2 draws and 2 for Wolves over 5 games, 2.2 goals on average. Form guide over the last six: Preston W2 D0 L4, Wolves W3 D2 L1. Wolves are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.21).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
48.5%+27.3%
26.8%+0.1%
24.7%-27.3%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.21)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Preston 1 · 2 draws · Wolves 2 · 2.2 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
WolvesPlayers to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 2.68
@ 1.35
@ 1.17
@ 11.49
@ 2.60
@ 2.46
@ 4.27
@ 1.99
@ 2.62
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 65.0% | Over 7.5 | 51.9% | Over 8.5 | 39.2% | Over 9.5 | 28.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Preston | 48.2% | Most: Wolves | 38.5% | ||||
| Preston Over 4.2 | 39.4% | Wolves Over 4.2 | 32.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 68.8% | Over 3.5 | 47.3% | Over 4.5 | 28.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Preston | 38.5% | Most: Wolves | 39.4% | ||
| Preston Over 1.8 | 52.6% | Wolves Over 1.8 | 53.3% |
Wolves: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Cunha | 3.79 | 1.5 | 0.52 | 74.0% | 85.3% | 37.3% |
| Tolu Arokodare | 3.05 | 1.06 | 0.2 | 38.4% | 40.6% | 8.7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen | 1.69 | 0.89 | 0.34 | 50.2% | 38.2% | 23.4% |
| Mateus Mané | 2.07 | 0.86 | 0.15 | 45.6% | 43.1% | 10.1% |
| Pablo Sarabia | 1.84 | 0.8 | 0.34 | 27.1% | 16.5% | 12.6% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Preston clean sheet | 35.7% |
|---|---|
| Wolves clean sheet | 21.5% |
| Preston win to nil | 27.3% |
| Wolves win to nil | 13.2% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 48.5% | draw | 26.8% | away | 24.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 75.3% | 12 | 73.2% | X2 | 51.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 66.3% | away | 33.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 51.0% | no | 49.0% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 35.8% | away | 21.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 27.5% | away | 13.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.4% | home_by_2 | 14.9% | home_by_3plus | 10.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 15.4% | away_by_2 | 6.7% | away_by_3plus | 2.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.3% | 0-1 | 7.3% | 0-2 | 4.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.4% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.2% | 1-1 | 12.8% | 1-2 | 6.2% |
| 1-3 | 2.1% | 1-4 | 0.5% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.1% | 2-1 | 9.3% | 2-2 | 4.8% |
| 2-3 | 1.6% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.7% | 3-1 | 4.8% | 3-2 | 2.5% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.8% | 4-1 | 1.8% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.5% | 5-1 | 0.6% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.6% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.7% | under_0.5 | 8.3% | over_1.5 | 73.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.9% | over_2.5 | 47.2% | under_2.5 | 52.8% |
| over_3.5 | 25.6% | under_3.5 | 74.4% | over_4.5 | 11.7% |
| under_4.5 | 88.3% | over_5.5 | 4.6% | under_5.5 | 95.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 78.5% | under_0.5 | 21.5% | over_1.5 | 45.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 54.6% | over_2.5 | 20.0% | under_2.5 | 80.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 64.2% | under_0.5 | 35.8% | over_1.5 | 27.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.6% | over_2.5 | 8.5% | under_2.5 | 91.5% |
most
| home | 48.5% | draw | 26.8% | away | 24.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 10.2% | away_+2.5 | 89.8% | home_-1.5 | 25.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 74.9% | home_-0.5 | 48.5% | away_+0.5 | 51.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 75.3% | away_-0.5 | 24.7% | home_+1.5 | 90.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 9.3% | home_+2.5 | 97.4% | away_-2.5 | 2.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.3% | exact_1 | 18.5% | exact_2 | 25.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.6% | exact_4 | 13.9% | exact_5 | 7.1% |
| exact_6 | 3.0% | exact_7plus | 1.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.8% | draw | 39.1% | away | 30.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.2% | under_0.5 | 25.8% | over_1.5 | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.8% | over_2.5 | 15.6% | under_2.5 | 84.5% |
btts
| yes | 24.2% | no | 75.8% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 25.8% | exact_1 | 35.0% | exact_2 | 23.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.7% | exact_4plus | 4.9% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.4% | draw | 38.0% | away | 31.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.8% | under_0.5 | 24.2% | over_1.5 | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.6% | over_2.5 | 17.1% | under_2.5 | 82.9% |
btts
| yes | 25.8% | no | 74.2% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 23.1% | H/D | 5.4% | H/A | 2.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 11.9% | D/D | 14.9% | D/A | 12.3% |
| A/H | 2.1% | A/D | 5.2% | A/A | 23.0% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 80.8% | under_7.5 | 19.2% | over_8.5 | 70.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 29.1% | over_9.5 | 59.8% | under_9.5 | 40.3% |
| over_10.5 | 48.2% | under_10.5 | 51.8% | over_11.5 | 37.1% |
| under_11.5 | 62.9% | over_12.5 | 27.4% | under_12.5 | 72.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 78.1% | under_3.5 | 21.9% | over_4.5 | 64.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 36.0% | over_5.5 | 49.0% | under_5.5 | 51.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 68.2% | under_3.5 | 31.8% | over_4.5 | 51.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 48.3% | over_5.5 | 36.3% | under_5.5 | 63.7% |
most
| home | 53.2% | draw | 10.3% | away | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.0% | away_+3.5 | 76.0% | home_-1.5 | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.3% | home_-0.5 | 53.2% | away_+0.5 | 46.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.5% | away_-0.5 | 36.5% | home_+1.5 | 72.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 27.1% | home_+3.5 | 87.2% | away_-3.5 | 12.8% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 62.0% | under_22.5 | 38.1% | over_24.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 50.6% | over_26.5 | 37.3% | under_26.5 | 62.7% |
| over_28.5 | 26.6% | under_28.5 | 73.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 70.2% | under_10.5 | 29.8% | over_12.5 | 53.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 46.6% | over_14.5 | 37.1% | under_14.5 | 62.9% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 56.0% | under_10.5 | 44.0% | over_12.5 | 37.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 62.1% | over_14.5 | 23.2% | under_14.5 | 76.8% |
most
| home | 57.7% | draw | 6.1% | away | 36.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 32.9% | away_+4.5 | 67.1% | home_-2.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 55.0% | home_-0.5 | 57.7% | away_+0.5 | 42.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.8% | away_-0.5 | 36.2% | home_+2.5 | 75.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 25.1% | home_+4.5 | 83.9% | away_-4.5 | 16.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 65.0% | under_6.5 | 35.0% | over_7.5 | 51.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 48.1% | over_8.5 | 39.2% | under_8.5 | 60.8% |
| over_9.5 | 28.1% | under_9.5 | 71.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 57.1% | under_3.5 | 42.9% | over_4.5 | 39.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.6% | over_5.5 | 24.9% | under_5.5 | 75.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 50.2% | under_3.5 | 49.8% | over_4.5 | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 67.4% | over_5.5 | 19.3% | under_5.5 | 80.8% |
most
| home | 48.2% | draw | 13.3% | away | 38.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 23.8% | away_+2.5 | 76.2% | home_-0.5 | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 51.8% | home_+0.5 | 61.5% | away_-0.5 | 38.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 83.2% | away_-2.5 | 16.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 68.8% | under_2.5 | 31.2% | over_3.5 | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 52.7% | over_4.5 | 28.3% | under_4.5 | 71.7% |
| over_5.5 | 14.9% | under_5.5 | 85.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 52.6% | under_1.5 | 47.4% | over_2.5 | 25.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 74.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 53.3% | under_1.5 | 46.7% | over_2.5 | 26.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 73.5% |
most
| home | 38.5% | draw | 22.1% | away | 39.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.9% | away_+1.5 | 80.1% | home_-0.5 | 38.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.5% | home_+0.5 | 60.6% | away_-0.5 | 39.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 79.4% | away_-1.5 | 20.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 55.4% | under_20.5 | 44.7% | over_22.5 | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 60.4% | over_24.5 | 25.8% | under_24.5 | 74.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 60.8% | under_9.5 | 39.2% | over_11.5 | 38.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 61.5% | over_13.5 | 20.5% | under_13.5 | 79.5% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 61.3% | under_9.5 | 38.7% | over_11.5 | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 61.1% | over_13.5 | 20.9% | under_13.5 | 79.1% |
most
| home | 45.6% | draw | 8.1% | away | 46.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.7% | away_+3.5 | 76.3% | home_-0.5 | 45.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 54.4% | home_+2.5 | 69.0% | away_-2.5 | 31.0% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 6.0% | no | 94.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.6% | no | 95.4% |
|---|
away
| yes | 1.4% | no | 98.6% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Preston predictions · Wolves predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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