Derby vs Cardiff: model prediction
ChampionshipDerby or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Derby at 55.4%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 50.5% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 50.4% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Derby heavy favourites at 55% when Derby meet Cardiff in the Championship on 22 August 2026. Our number sits above the market's 50% for Derby. The gap itself is information. No strong lean on goals (50% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. The recent series reads 1 wins for Derby, 0 draws and 4 for Cardiff over 5 games, 2.0 goals on average. Schedule edge: Derby have had 3 more days of rest than Cardiff. Cardiff are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Form guide over the last six: Derby W2 D0 L4, Cardiff W0 D3 L3. The engine passes on this one (trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
55.4%+5.9%
24.9%-1.3%
19.7%-4.6%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Derby 1 · 0 draws · Cardiff 4 · 2.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 62.7% | Over 7.5 | 49.4% | Over 8.5 | 36.8% | Over 9.5 | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Derby | 53.4% | Most: Cardiff | 33.4% | ||||
| Derby Over 4.2 | 41.3% | Cardiff Over 4.2 | 27.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 71.0% | Over 3.5 | 50.0% | Over 4.5 | 30.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Derby | 38.1% | Most: Cardiff | 40.2% | ||
| Derby Over 1.8 | 54.0% | Cardiff Over 1.8 | 55.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Derby clean sheet | 39.0% |
|---|---|
| Cardiff clean sheet | 17.9% |
| Derby win to nil | 31.4% |
| Cardiff win to nil | 10.3% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 55.4% | draw | 24.9% | away | 19.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 80.3% | 12 | 75.1% | X2 | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 73.7% | away | 26.3% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 50.4% | no | 49.6% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 39.3% | away | 17.9% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 31.7% | away | 10.3% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.2% | home_by_2 | 17.2% | home_by_3plus | 13.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 12.9% | away_by_2 | 5.1% | away_by_3plus | 1.8% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.6% | 0-1 | 6.0% | 0-2 | 3.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.0% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | 1-1 | 11.9% | 1-2 | 5.3% |
| 1-3 | 1.6% | 1-4 | 0.4% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 10.4% | 2-1 | 9.7% | 2-2 | 4.5% |
| 2-3 | 1.4% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 6.0% | 3-1 | 5.6% | 3-2 | 2.6% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 2.6% | 4-1 | 2.4% | 4-2 | 1.1% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.9% | 5-1 | 0.8% | 5-2 | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.9% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 11.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.4% | under_0.5 | 7.6% | over_1.5 | 74.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 25.2% | over_2.5 | 49.5% | under_2.5 | 50.5% |
| over_3.5 | 27.6% | under_3.5 | 72.4% | over_4.5 | 13.0% |
| under_4.5 | 87.0% | over_5.5 | 5.3% | under_5.5 | 94.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 82.1% | under_0.5 | 17.9% | over_1.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 48.7% | over_2.5 | 24.8% | under_2.5 | 75.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 60.7% | under_0.5 | 39.3% | over_1.5 | 24.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 76.0% | over_2.5 | 6.8% | under_2.5 | 93.2% |
most
| home | 55.4% | draw | 24.9% | away | 19.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 13.9% | away_+2.5 | 86.1% | home_-1.5 | 31.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 68.9% | home_-0.5 | 55.4% | away_+0.5 | 44.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 80.3% | away_-0.5 | 19.7% | home_+1.5 | 93.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 6.8% | home_+2.5 | 98.2% | away_-2.5 | 1.8% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.6% | exact_1 | 17.5% | exact_2 | 25.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.9% | exact_4 | 14.5% | exact_5 | 7.7% |
| exact_6 | 3.4% | exact_7plus | 1.9% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 45.0% | draw | 40.1% | away | 14.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 69.6% | under_0.5 | 30.4% | over_1.5 | 33.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.6% | over_2.5 | 11.9% | under_2.5 | 88.1% |
btts
| yes | 17.0% | no | 83.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 30.4% | exact_1 | 36.2% | exact_2 | 21.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.6% | exact_4plus | 3.3% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 33.2% | draw | 37.1% | away | 29.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.1% | under_0.5 | 22.9% | over_1.5 | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.7% | over_2.5 | 18.5% | under_2.5 | 81.5% |
btts
| yes | 27.1% | no | 72.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 35.2% | H/D | 7.0% | H/A | 2.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.3% | D/D | 14.9% | D/A | 11.9% |
| A/H | 1.4% | A/D | 3.0% | A/A | 10.5% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.9% | under_7.5 | 22.1% | over_8.5 | 67.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 32.7% | over_9.5 | 55.6% | under_9.5 | 44.4% |
| over_10.5 | 43.9% | under_10.5 | 56.1% | over_11.5 | 33.1% |
| under_11.5 | 66.9% | over_12.5 | 23.8% | under_12.5 | 76.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 78.4% | under_3.5 | 21.6% | over_4.5 | 64.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 35.7% | over_5.5 | 49.3% | under_5.5 | 50.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 62.6% | under_3.5 | 37.4% | over_4.5 | 45.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.6% | over_5.5 | 30.2% | under_5.5 | 69.8% |
most
| home | 57.6% | draw | 10.3% | away | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.9% | away_+3.5 | 73.1% | home_-1.5 | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 53.2% | home_-0.5 | 57.6% | away_+0.5 | 42.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.8% | away_-0.5 | 32.2% | home_+1.5 | 76.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.1% | home_+3.5 | 89.9% | away_-3.5 | 10.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 59.6% | under_22.5 | 40.4% | over_24.5 | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 53.0% | over_26.5 | 35.0% | under_26.5 | 65.0% |
| over_28.5 | 24.5% | under_28.5 | 75.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 71.5% | under_10.5 | 28.5% | over_12.5 | 55.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 45.0% | over_14.5 | 38.6% | under_14.5 | 61.4% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 50.7% | under_10.5 | 49.3% | over_12.5 | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 67.2% | over_14.5 | 19.0% | under_14.5 | 81.0% |
most
| home | 62.4% | draw | 5.9% | away | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.1% | away_+4.5 | 62.9% | home_-2.5 | 49.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.3% | home_-0.5 | 62.4% | away_+0.5 | 37.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.3% | away_-0.5 | 31.7% | home_+2.5 | 78.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.2% | home_+4.5 | 86.9% | away_-4.5 | 13.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 62.7% | under_6.5 | 37.3% | over_7.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 50.6% | over_8.5 | 36.8% | under_8.5 | 63.2% |
| over_9.5 | 26.0% | under_9.5 | 74.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 58.9% | under_3.5 | 41.1% | over_4.5 | 41.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.7% | over_5.5 | 26.5% | under_5.5 | 73.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 44.5% | under_3.5 | 55.5% | over_4.5 | 27.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 72.6% | over_5.5 | 15.3% | under_5.5 | 84.8% |
most
| home | 53.4% | draw | 13.2% | away | 33.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 27.7% | away_+2.5 | 72.3% | home_-0.5 | 53.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 46.6% | home_+0.5 | 66.6% | away_-0.5 | 33.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.6% | away_-2.5 | 13.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 71.0% | under_2.5 | 29.0% | over_3.5 | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 50.0% | over_4.5 | 30.8% | under_4.5 | 69.3% |
| over_5.5 | 16.6% | under_5.5 | 83.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 54.0% | under_1.5 | 46.0% | over_2.5 | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 72.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 55.5% | under_1.5 | 44.5% | over_2.5 | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 71.4% |
most
| home | 38.1% | draw | 21.7% | away | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.0% | away_+1.5 | 80.0% | home_-0.5 | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.9% | home_+0.5 | 59.8% | away_-0.5 | 40.2% |
| home_+1.5 | 78.5% | away_-1.5 | 21.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 62.8% | under_20.5 | 37.2% | over_22.5 | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 52.8% | over_24.5 | 32.6% | under_24.5 | 67.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 66.9% | under_9.5 | 33.1% | over_11.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 55.0% | over_13.5 | 25.8% | under_13.5 | 74.2% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 65.3% | under_9.5 | 34.8% | over_11.5 | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 56.8% | over_13.5 | 24.2% | under_13.5 | 75.8% |
most
| home | 47.4% | draw | 7.9% | away | 44.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.6% | away_+3.5 | 74.4% | home_-0.5 | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.6% | home_+2.5 | 70.0% | away_-2.5 | 30.0% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 5.7% | no | 94.4% |
|---|
home
| yes | 2.9% | no | 97.1% |
|---|
away
| yes | 2.9% | no | 97.1% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Derby predictions · Cardiff predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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