Porto vs Arouca: model prediction
Primeira LigaPorto or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Porto at 65.1%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 52.9% and it missed (2 goals). We called No at 52.2% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: Porto at 65% against Arouca, Primeira Liga, 23 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Porto higher (78%) than our model does. • Totals sit close to the fence: 53% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 48%. • The recent series reads 4 wins for Porto, 0 draws and 1 for Arouca over 5 games, 3.8 goals on average. • Recent form reads W5 D0 L1 for Porto against W4 D1 L1 for Arouca. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.06)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
65.1%-13.1%
21.4%+5.8%
13.5%+7.4%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.06)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Porto 4 · 0 draws · Arouca 1 · 3.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Porto
AroucaBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 66.0% | Over 7.5 | 52.9% | Over 8.5 | 40.1% | Over 9.5 | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Porto | 60.2% | Most: Arouca | 27.5% | ||||
| Porto Over 4.2 | 48.2% | Arouca Over 4.2 | 24.9% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 88.6% | Over 3.5 | 75.2% | Over 4.5 | 58.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Porto | 29.6% | Most: Arouca | 53.0% | ||
| Porto Over 1.8 | 65.0% | Arouca Over 1.8 | 78.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Porto clean sheet | 44.5% |
|---|---|
| Arouca clean sheet | 13.6% |
| Porto win to nil | 37.9% |
| Arouca win to nil | 7.0% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 65.1% | draw | 21.4% | away | 13.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 86.5% | 12 | 78.6% | X2 | 34.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 82.8% | away | 17.2% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 47.8% | no | 52.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 45.2% | away | 13.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 38.6% | away | 7.0% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.3% | home_by_2 | 20.1% | home_by_3plus | 20.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 9.4% | away_by_2 | 3.2% | away_by_3plus | 0.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.6% | 0-1 | 4.4% | 0-2 | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.5% | 0-4 | 0.1% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | 1-1 | 10.2% | 1-2 | 3.9% |
| 1-3 | 1.0% | 1-4 | 0.2% | 1-5 | 0.0% |
| 2-0 | 12.2% | 2-1 | 9.7% | 2-2 | 3.8% |
| 2-3 | 1.0% | 2-4 | 0.2% | 2-5 | 0.0% |
| 3-0 | 8.2% | 3-1 | 6.5% | 3-2 | 2.6% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 4.1% | 4-1 | 3.2% | 4-2 | 1.3% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.7% | 5-1 | 1.3% | 5-2 | 0.5% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.7% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 12.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.4% | under_0.5 | 6.6% | over_1.5 | 77.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 22.7% | over_2.5 | 52.9% | under_2.5 | 47.1% |
| over_3.5 | 30.7% | under_3.5 | 69.3% | over_4.5 | 15.2% |
| under_4.5 | 84.8% | over_5.5 | 6.5% | under_5.5 | 93.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.8% | even | 51.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 86.4% | under_0.5 | 13.6% | over_1.5 | 59.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 40.6% | over_2.5 | 32.4% | under_2.5 | 67.6% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 54.8% | under_0.5 | 45.2% | over_1.5 | 18.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 81.1% | over_2.5 | 4.7% | under_2.5 | 95.3% |
most
| home | 65.1% | draw | 21.4% | away | 13.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 20.6% | away_+2.5 | 79.4% | home_-1.5 | 40.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 59.3% | home_-0.5 | 65.1% | away_+0.5 | 34.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 86.5% | away_-0.5 | 13.5% | home_+1.5 | 95.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 4.1% | home_+2.5 | 99.1% | away_-2.5 | 0.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.6% | exact_1 | 16.1% | exact_2 | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.2% | exact_4 | 15.5% | exact_5 | 8.7% |
| exact_6 | 4.1% | exact_7plus | 2.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 56.7% | draw | 34.4% | away | 8.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.4% | under_0.5 | 26.6% | over_1.5 | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.8% | over_2.5 | 14.9% | under_2.5 | 85.2% |
btts
| yes | 14.9% | no | 85.1% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 26.6% | exact_1 | 35.2% | exact_2 | 23.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.3% | exact_4plus | 4.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 48.3% | draw | 33.8% | away | 17.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 79.1% | under_0.5 | 20.9% | over_1.5 | 46.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.7% | over_2.5 | 20.7% | under_2.5 | 79.3% |
btts
| yes | 26.1% | no | 73.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 50.2% | H/D | 5.1% | H/A | 1.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.6% | D/D | 11.7% | D/A | 6.1% |
| A/H | 1.6% | A/D | 2.4% | A/A | 4.9% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 68.1% | under_7.5 | 31.9% | over_8.5 | 56.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 43.4% | over_9.5 | 45.0% | under_9.5 | 55.0% |
| over_10.5 | 34.3% | under_10.5 | 65.7% | over_11.5 | 25.0% |
| under_11.5 | 75.0% | over_12.5 | 17.6% | under_12.5 | 82.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.4% | under_3.5 | 30.6% | over_4.5 | 54.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 45.5% | over_5.5 | 40.3% | under_5.5 | 59.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 56.4% | under_3.5 | 43.6% | over_4.5 | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.8% | over_5.5 | 26.7% | under_5.5 | 73.3% |
most
| home | 54.2% | draw | 10.2% | away | 35.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.0% | away_+3.5 | 75.0% | home_-1.5 | 43.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.3% | home_-0.5 | 54.2% | away_+0.5 | 45.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.5% | away_-0.5 | 35.5% | home_+1.5 | 73.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.3% | home_+3.5 | 87.6% | away_-3.5 | 12.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 54.4% | under_22.5 | 45.6% | over_24.5 | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 57.7% | over_26.5 | 31.1% | under_26.5 | 68.9% |
| over_28.5 | 21.7% | under_28.5 | 78.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 67.7% | under_10.5 | 32.3% | over_12.5 | 51.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 48.5% | over_14.5 | 36.1% | under_14.5 | 63.9% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 46.5% | under_10.5 | 53.5% | over_12.5 | 29.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 70.2% | over_14.5 | 17.3% | under_14.5 | 82.7% |
most
| home | 62.3% | draw | 5.8% | away | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.7% | away_+4.5 | 62.3% | home_-2.5 | 49.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.1% | home_-0.5 | 62.3% | away_+0.5 | 37.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.1% | away_-0.5 | 31.9% | home_+2.5 | 78.4% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.6% | home_+4.5 | 86.4% | away_-4.5 | 13.6% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 66.0% | under_6.5 | 34.0% | over_7.5 | 52.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 47.1% | over_8.5 | 40.1% | under_8.5 | 59.9% |
| over_9.5 | 28.8% | under_9.5 | 71.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.5% | under_3.5 | 34.5% | over_4.5 | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.8% | over_5.5 | 32.5% | under_5.5 | 67.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 41.9% | under_3.5 | 58.1% | over_4.5 | 24.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 75.1% | over_5.5 | 13.3% | under_5.5 | 86.7% |
most
| home | 60.2% | draw | 12.4% | away | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 33.9% | away_+2.5 | 66.1% | home_-0.5 | 60.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 39.8% | home_+0.5 | 72.5% | away_-0.5 | 27.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 89.9% | away_-2.5 | 10.1% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 88.6% | under_2.5 | 11.4% | over_3.5 | 75.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 24.8% | over_4.5 | 58.1% | under_4.5 | 41.9% |
| over_5.5 | 40.6% | under_5.5 | 59.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 65.0% | under_1.5 | 35.0% | over_2.5 | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 61.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 78.7% | under_1.5 | 21.3% | over_2.5 | 55.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 44.4% |
most
| home | 29.6% | draw | 17.4% | away | 53.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 16.0% | away_+1.5 | 84.0% | home_-0.5 | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 70.4% | home_+0.5 | 47.0% | away_-0.5 | 53.0% |
| home_+1.5 | 64.8% | away_-1.5 | 35.2% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 80.1% | under_20.5 | 20.0% | over_22.5 | 68.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 31.1% | over_24.5 | 56.1% | under_24.5 | 43.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 78.0% | under_9.5 | 22.0% | over_11.5 | 60.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 39.3% | over_13.5 | 42.4% | under_13.5 | 57.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 76.8% | under_9.5 | 23.3% | over_11.5 | 59.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 40.9% | over_13.5 | 40.7% | under_13.5 | 59.4% |
most
| home | 47.9% | draw | 6.6% | away | 45.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.0% | away_+3.5 | 71.0% | home_-0.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.1% | home_+2.5 | 67.2% | away_-2.5 | 32.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 30.1% | no | 69.9% |
|---|
home
| yes | 14.3% | no | 85.7% |
|---|
away
| yes | 18.5% | no | 81.5% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Porto predictions · Arouca predictions · Primeira Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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