Osasuna vs Levante: model prediction
La Liga
Over 1.5 goals
Osasuna or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Osasuna at 51.7%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 51.8% and it missed (0 goals). We called Yes at 54.1% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Osasuna heavy favourites at 52% when Osasuna meet Levante in the La Liga on 24 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Bookmakers see it the same way, 52% on Osasuna, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. • No strong lean on goals (52% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Recent form reads W1 D0 L5 for Osasuna against W3 D0 L3 for Levante. • Schedule edge: Osasuna have had 84 more days of rest than Levante. Raul García drives the home shot volume, 1.9 on target per 90. The forecast adds a wrinkle: 31 degrees of heat. The recent series reads 3 wins for Osasuna, 1 draws and 1 for Levante over 5 games, 2.4 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
51.7%-0.9%
24.3%-1.7%
24.1%+2.7%
value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Osasuna 3 · 1 draws · Levante 1 · 2.4 goals/game.
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 6.58
@ 2.57
@ 3.95
@ 2.79
@ 1.62
@ 1.51
@ 2.49
@ 1.55
@ 1.33
@ 5.46
@ 1.99
@ 2.38
@ 6.17
@ 1.67
@ 1.45
@ 19.23
@ 2.66
@ 2.31
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 76.8% | Over 7.5 | 65.4% | Over 8.5 | 53.0% | Over 9.5 | 40.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Osasuna | 62.3% | Most: Levante | 26.3% | ||||
| Osasuna Over 4.2 | 58.4% | Levante Over 4.2 | 31.9% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 83.0% | Over 3.5 | 66.7% | Over 4.5 | 48.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Osasuna | 37.3% | Most: Levante | 43.8% | ||
| Osasuna Over 1.8 | 63.9% | Levante Over 1.8 | 68.1% |
Osasuna: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul García | 3.66 | 1.86 | 0.62 | 38.9% | 25.3% | 15.2% |
| Ante Budimir | 3.03 | 1.17 | 0.58 | 64.6% | 75.0% | 40.2% |
| Víctor Muñoz | 2.7 | 1.03 | 0.2 | 59.8% | 68.9% | 16.2% |
| Kike Barja | 1.62 | 0.68 | 0.27 | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% |
| Bryan Zaragoza | 1.93 | 0.58 | 0.05 | 37.0% | 45.4% | 3.9% |
Levante: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Espí | 3.86 | 1.63 | 0.75 | 61.8% | 66.4% | 35.8% |
| Etta Eyong | 2.77 | 1.35 | 0.39 | 50.3% | 42.0% | 18.3% |
| Roger Brugué | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.09 | 37.6% | 43.3% | 5.2% |
| Paco Cortés | 2.37 | 0.79 | 0 | 28.4% | 26.4% | 0.0% |
| Víctor García | 1.61 | 0.68 | 0.17 | 31.8% | 23.0% | 9.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Osasuna clean sheet | 33.8% |
|---|---|
| Levante clean sheet | 18.8% |
| Osasuna win to nil | 26.8% |
| Levante win to nil | 11.8% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 50.7% | draw | 25.4% | away | 23.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 76.1% | 12 | 74.6% | X2 | 49.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 68.0% | away | 32.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 54.1% | no | 45.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 34.1% | away | 18.8% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 27.1% | away | 11.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.1% | home_by_2 | 15.7% | home_by_3plus | 11.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 14.7% | away_by_2 | 6.5% | away_by_3plus | 2.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.0% | 0-1 | 6.3% | 0-2 | 3.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.3% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | 1-1 | 12.1% | 1-2 | 6.2% |
| 1-3 | 2.2% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.0% | 2-1 | 9.6% | 2-2 | 5.2% |
| 2-3 | 1.9% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 5.0% | 3-1 | 5.4% | 3-2 | 2.9% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 2.1% | 4-1 | 2.2% | 4-2 | 1.2% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.7% | 5-1 | 0.8% | 5-2 | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.8% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.0% | under_0.5 | 7.0% | over_1.5 | 76.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 23.4% | over_2.5 | 51.8% | under_2.5 | 48.2% |
| over_3.5 | 29.7% | under_3.5 | 70.3% | over_4.5 | 14.5% |
| under_4.5 | 85.5% | over_5.5 | 6.1% | under_5.5 | 93.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 81.2% | under_0.5 | 18.8% | over_1.5 | 49.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 50.2% | over_2.5 | 23.5% | under_2.5 | 76.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 65.9% | under_0.5 | 34.1% | over_1.5 | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.7% | over_2.5 | 9.5% | under_2.5 | 90.5% |
most
| home | 50.7% | draw | 25.4% | away | 23.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 11.9% | away_+2.5 | 88.1% | home_-1.5 | 27.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 72.4% | home_-0.5 | 50.7% | away_+0.5 | 49.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 76.1% | away_-0.5 | 23.9% | home_+1.5 | 90.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 9.2% | home_+2.5 | 97.3% | away_-2.5 | 2.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.0% | exact_1 | 16.4% | exact_2 | 24.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.2% | exact_4 | 15.2% | exact_5 | 8.4% |
| exact_6 | 3.8% | exact_7plus | 2.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 42.9% | draw | 41.2% | away | 15.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 68.6% | under_0.5 | 31.4% | over_1.5 | 32.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.7% | over_2.5 | 11.2% | under_2.5 | 88.8% |
btts
| yes | 16.8% | no | 83.2% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 31.4% | exact_1 | 36.4% | exact_2 | 21.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.2% | exact_4plus | 3.0% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 37.8% | draw | 35.4% | away | 26.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 79.3% | under_0.5 | 20.7% | over_1.5 | 46.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.3% | over_2.5 | 21.0% | under_2.5 | 79.0% |
btts
| yes | 29.3% | no | 70.7% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 34.4% | H/D | 6.2% | H/A | 2.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.6% | D/D | 14.6% | D/A | 11.0% |
| A/H | 1.8% | A/D | 3.5% | A/A | 10.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 70.9% | under_7.5 | 29.1% | over_8.5 | 59.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 41.0% | over_9.5 | 46.7% | under_9.5 | 53.3% |
| over_10.5 | 35.1% | under_10.5 | 64.9% | over_11.5 | 25.1% |
| under_11.5 | 74.9% | over_12.5 | 17.1% | under_12.5 | 82.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.1% | under_3.5 | 24.9% | over_4.5 | 60.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 39.8% | over_5.5 | 45.0% | under_5.5 | 55.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 54.8% | under_3.5 | 45.2% | over_4.5 | 37.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 62.6% | over_5.5 | 23.3% | under_5.5 | 76.7% |
most
| home | 59.6% | draw | 10.4% | away | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.8% | away_+3.5 | 72.2% | home_-1.5 | 48.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 51.5% | home_-0.5 | 59.6% | away_+0.5 | 40.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.0% | away_-0.5 | 30.0% | home_+1.5 | 79.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.0% | home_+3.5 | 91.4% | away_-3.5 | 8.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 61.6% | under_22.5 | 38.4% | over_24.5 | 49.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 51.0% | over_26.5 | 36.8% | under_26.5 | 63.2% |
| over_28.5 | 26.0% | under_28.5 | 74.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 76.6% | under_10.5 | 23.4% | over_12.5 | 61.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 38.8% | over_14.5 | 45.0% | under_14.5 | 55.0% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 46.4% | under_10.5 | 53.6% | over_12.5 | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 71.2% | over_14.5 | 16.0% | under_14.5 | 84.0% |
most
| home | 69.4% | draw | 5.4% | away | 25.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 44.6% | away_+4.5 | 55.4% | home_-2.5 | 57.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 42.7% | home_-0.5 | 69.4% | away_+0.5 | 30.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 74.8% | away_-0.5 | 25.2% | home_+2.5 | 83.9% |
| away_-2.5 | 16.1% | home_+4.5 | 90.5% | away_-4.5 | 9.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 76.8% | under_6.5 | 23.2% | over_7.5 | 65.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 34.6% | over_8.5 | 53.0% | under_8.5 | 47.0% |
| over_9.5 | 40.9% | under_9.5 | 59.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.2% | under_3.5 | 25.8% | over_4.5 | 58.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 41.6% | over_5.5 | 42.5% | under_5.5 | 57.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 49.9% | under_3.5 | 50.1% | over_4.5 | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 68.1% | over_5.5 | 18.4% | under_5.5 | 81.6% |
most
| home | 62.3% | draw | 11.4% | away | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 37.5% | away_+2.5 | 62.5% | home_-0.5 | 62.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 37.7% | home_+0.5 | 73.7% | away_-0.5 | 26.3% |
| home_+2.5 | 89.8% | away_-2.5 | 10.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 83.0% | under_2.5 | 17.0% | over_3.5 | 66.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 33.3% | over_4.5 | 48.3% | under_4.5 | 51.7% |
| over_5.5 | 31.5% | under_5.5 | 68.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 63.9% | under_1.5 | 36.1% | over_2.5 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 62.3% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 68.2% | under_1.5 | 31.9% | over_2.5 | 42.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 57.5% |
most
| home | 37.3% | draw | 18.8% | away | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 21.3% | away_+1.5 | 78.7% | home_-0.5 | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.7% | home_+0.5 | 56.2% | away_-0.5 | 43.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.5% | away_-1.5 | 26.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 78.2% | under_20.5 | 21.8% | over_22.5 | 66.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 34.0% | over_24.5 | 52.3% | under_24.5 | 47.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 80.5% | under_9.5 | 19.5% | over_11.5 | 63.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 36.7% | over_13.5 | 44.3% | under_13.5 | 55.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 71.5% | under_9.5 | 28.5% | over_11.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 48.4% | over_13.5 | 32.6% | under_13.5 | 67.4% |
most
| home | 55.0% | draw | 6.8% | away | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 34.4% | away_+3.5 | 65.6% | home_-0.5 | 55.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 45.0% | home_+2.5 | 74.3% | away_-2.5 | 25.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 27.6% | no | 72.4% |
|---|
home
| yes | 16.1% | no | 83.9% |
|---|
away
| yes | 13.7% | no | 86.4% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Osasuna predictions · Levante predictions · La Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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