Hertha vs Heidenheim prediction & probabilities (2026-08-15)

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Hertha vs Heidenheim: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Aug 2026

2. Bundesliga
Hertha

LLWLW

Full time4-1Sat, 15 Aug 202612:00UK
Heidenheim

DLWWW

Model’s top convictions

81%

Hertha or draw

79%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time2 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Hertha 4-1 Heidenheim
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Both teams to score
3 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Hertha at 58.3%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 55.6% and it landed (5 goals). We called Yes at 54.2% and it landed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
HerthaWin probability
58.3%
Top 3 convictions

Hertha or draw81.3%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Over 1.5 goals79.2%High probabilityPays @ 1.26
Over 8.5 corners64.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.56

Model read

▾

Few 2. Bundesliga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Hertha carry a 58% win probability against Heidenheim on 15 August 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Hertha than the market (43%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 56% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 54%. 3) As a promoted side, Heidenheim carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The run in: Hertha arrive W2 D1 L3, Heidenheim W4 D1 L1. The engine passes on this one (trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners43.1%@ 2.32
Draw or Heidenheim41.7%@ 2.40
Over 11.5 corners33.5%@ 2.99
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals55.6%@ 1.80
Both teams to score54.2%@ 1.85
Over 9.5 corners53.5%@ 1.87
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.9%@ 9.16
2-0 correct score10.0%@ 10.02
2-1 correct score9.9%@ 10.06

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Hertha

58.3%+15.1%

Draw

23.0%-3.6%

Heidenheim

18.7%-11.5%

ModelMarket

trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.579.2%

High probability

Over 2.555.6%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes54.2%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.564.2%

Strong chance

Over 9.553.5%

Good chance

Over 10.543.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.533.5%

Toss-up

Most cornersHertha50.5%Heidenheim38.7%

Shots markets

Over 22.573.0%

Strong chance

Over 24.561.2%

Strong chance

Over 26.548.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.536.4%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.579.2%2.555.6%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.579.2%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

HerthaLLWLW
HeidenheimDLWWW

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

HerthaHeidenheim
League position#6 of 18#4 of 18
Record W-D-L1-0-01-0-0
Current streakW1W1
Points per game3.003.00
Goals scored per game1.004.00
Goals conceded per game0.003.00
1st half goals per game1.003.00
2nd half goals per game0.001.00
Corners won per game2.04.0
Cards per game5.01.0
Fouls per game13.06.0
Red cards this season00
Shots per game11.020.0
Shots on target per game2.06.0
Over 2.5 rate

0.0%100.0%

BTTS rate

0.0%100.0%

Clean sheets

100.0%0.0%

Rates this season:HerthaHeidenheim

League averages this season: 3.44 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 67%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Hertha win2.201.72
Draw3.504.35
Heidenheim win3.105.35
Over 2.5 goals1.651.80
Under 2.5 goals2.202.25

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Hertha win1.72
Draw4.34
Heidenheim win5.34
Both teams to score1.84

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.26
Over 2.5 goals1.80
Over 3.5 goals3.01
Hertha most1.72
Heidenheim most5.34

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.29
Over 8.5 corners1.50
Over 9.5 corners1.82
Over 10.5 corners2.30
Hertha most1.98
Heidenheim most2.58

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.23
Over 3.5 cards1.56
Over 4.5 cards2.23
Over 5.5 cards3.58
Hertha most2.69
Heidenheim most2.31

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.31
Over 7.5 SoT1.54
Over 8.5 SoT1.91
Over 9.5 SoT2.49
Hertha most1.83
Heidenheim most3.01

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.37
Over 24.5 shots1.63
Over 26.5 shots2.06
Over 28.5 shots2.74
Hertha most1.72
Heidenheim most2.79

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.46
Over 22.5 fouls1.85
Over 24.5 fouls2.52
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 76.2% Over 7.5 64.7% Over 8.5 52.3% Over 9.5 40.2%
Most: Hertha 54.5% Most: Heidenheim 33.3%
Hertha Over 4.2 52.8% Heidenheim Over 4.2 37.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 81.4% Over 3.5 64.0% Over 4.5 44.8%
Most: Hertha 37.2% Most: Heidenheim 43.2%
Hertha Over 1.8 62.4% Heidenheim Over 1.8 66.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Hertha clean sheet 36.4%
Heidenheim clean sheet 14.8%
Hertha win to nil 30.5%
Heidenheim win to nil 8.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 58.3% draw 23.0% away 18.7%
double_chance
1X 81.3% 12 77.0% X2 41.7%
dnb
home 75.7% away 24.3%
btts
yes 54.2% no 45.8%
clean_sheet
home 37.0% away 14.8%
win_to_nil
home 31.0% away 8.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.6% home_by_2 18.0% home_by_3plus 16.7%
away_by_1 12.0% away_by_2 4.9% away_by_3plus 1.8%
correct_score
0-0 6.0% 0-1 4.9% 0-2 2.7%
0-3 0.9% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 9.9% 1-1 10.9% 1-2 5.2%
1-3 1.7% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 10.0% 2-1 9.9% 2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.6% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 6.4% 3-1 6.3% 3-2 3.2%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 3.0% 4-1 3.0% 4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 1.2% 5-1 1.2% 5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.0% under_0.5 6.0% over_1.5 79.2%
under_1.5 20.8% over_2.5 55.6% under_2.5 44.4%
over_3.5 33.2% under_3.5 66.8% over_4.5 16.9%
under_4.5 83.1% over_5.5 7.5% under_5.5 92.5%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 85.2% under_0.5 14.8% over_1.5 57.0%
under_1.5 43.0% over_2.5 29.9% under_2.5 70.1%
team_away
over_0.5 63.0% under_0.5 37.0% over_1.5 26.3%
under_1.5 73.8% over_2.5 7.9% under_2.5 92.1%
most
home 58.3% draw 23.0% away 18.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 16.7% away_+2.5 83.3% home_-1.5 34.7%
away_+1.5 65.3% home_-0.5 58.3% away_+0.5 41.7%
home_+0.5 81.3% away_-0.5 18.7% home_+1.5 93.3%
away_-1.5 6.7% home_+2.5 98.2% away_-2.5 1.8%
total_exact
exact_0 6.0% exact_1 14.8% exact_2 23.6%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.3% exact_5 9.5%
exact_6 4.6% exact_7plus 2.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 39.1% draw 34.1% away 26.8%
total
over_0.5 81.2% under_0.5 18.9% over_1.5 49.7%
under_1.5 50.3% over_2.5 23.5% under_2.5 76.6%
btts
yes 31.5% no 68.5%
total_exact
exact_0 18.9% exact_1 31.5% exact_2 26.2%
exact_3 14.6% exact_4plus 8.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.3% draw 34.9% away 29.8%
total
over_0.5 80.4% under_0.5 19.6% over_1.5 48.4%
under_1.5 51.6% over_2.5 22.4% under_2.5 77.6%
btts
yes 30.9% no 69.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 30.7% H/D 5.9% H/A 2.5%
D/H 12.0% D/D 11.9% D/A 10.2%
A/H 2.5% A/D 5.0% A/A 19.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 77.4% under_7.5 22.6% over_8.5 66.8%
under_8.5 33.3% over_9.5 55.1% under_9.5 44.9%
over_10.5 43.4% under_10.5 56.6% over_11.5 32.7%
under_11.5 67.3% over_12.5 23.5% under_12.5 76.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.4% under_3.5 25.7% over_4.5 59.2%
under_4.5 40.8% over_5.5 43.9% under_5.5 56.1%
team_away
over_3.5 67.1% under_3.5 32.9% over_4.5 50.5%
under_4.5 49.5% over_5.5 35.2% under_5.5 64.8%
most
home 50.6% draw 10.6% away 38.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.5% away_+3.5 78.5% home_-1.5 39.9%
away_+1.5 60.1% home_-0.5 50.6% away_+0.5 49.5%
home_+0.5 61.2% away_-0.5 38.8% home_+1.5 71.0%
away_-1.5 29.0% home_+3.5 86.2% away_-3.5 13.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.0% under_22.5 27.0% over_24.5 61.2%
under_24.5 38.8% over_26.5 48.6% under_26.5 51.4%
over_28.5 36.4% under_28.5 63.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 77.8% under_10.5 22.3% over_12.5 61.9%
under_12.5 38.1% over_14.5 44.9% under_14.5 55.1%
team_away
over_10.5 64.7% under_10.5 35.3% over_12.5 46.2%
under_12.5 53.8% over_14.5 29.5% under_14.5 70.5%
most
home 58.0% draw 6.1% away 35.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 33.1% away_+4.5 66.9% home_-2.5 45.3%
away_+2.5 54.7% home_-0.5 58.0% away_+0.5 42.0%
home_+0.5 64.1% away_-0.5 35.9% home_+2.5 75.2%
away_-2.5 24.8% home_+4.5 84.2% away_-4.5 15.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 76.2% under_6.5 23.8% over_7.5 64.7%
under_7.5 35.3% over_8.5 52.3% under_8.5 47.7%
over_9.5 40.2% under_9.5 59.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.6% under_3.5 30.4% over_4.5 52.8%
under_4.5 47.2% over_5.5 36.8% under_5.5 63.2%
team_away
over_3.5 55.4% under_3.5 44.6% over_4.5 37.3%
under_4.5 62.7% over_5.5 22.8% under_5.5 77.2%
most
home 54.5% draw 12.2% away 33.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 30.2% away_+2.5 69.8% home_-0.5 54.5%
away_+0.5 45.5% home_+0.5 66.8% away_-0.5 33.3%
home_+2.5 85.7% away_-2.5 14.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 81.4% under_2.5 18.6% over_3.5 64.0%
under_3.5 36.0% over_4.5 44.8% under_4.5 55.2%
over_5.5 28.0% under_5.5 72.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 62.4% under_1.5 37.6% over_2.5 35.5%
under_2.5 64.5%
team_away
over_1.5 66.5% under_1.5 33.5% over_2.5 39.9%
under_2.5 60.1%
most
home 37.2% draw 19.6% away 43.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.6% away_+1.5 79.4% home_-0.5 37.2%
away_+0.5 62.8% home_+0.5 56.8% away_-0.5 43.2%
home_+1.5 74.6% away_-1.5 25.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 68.3% under_20.5 31.7% over_22.5 54.0%
under_22.5 46.0% over_24.5 39.6% under_24.5 60.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 68.5% under_9.5 31.5% over_11.5 47.8%
under_11.5 52.2% over_13.5 28.9% under_13.5 71.1%
team_away
over_9.5 70.4% under_9.5 29.7% over_11.5 50.0%
under_11.5 50.0% over_13.5 30.9% under_13.5 69.1%
most
home 44.8% draw 7.4% away 47.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.6% away_+3.5 75.4% home_-0.5 44.8%
away_+0.5 55.2% home_+2.5 66.4% away_-2.5 33.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 14.3% no 85.7%
home
yes 10.8% no 89.2%
away
yes 4.0% no 96.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Hertha predictions · Heidenheim predictions · 2. Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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2. BundesligaHerthaHeidenheimTrack record