Kortrijk vs Antwerp: model prediction
Pro LeagueOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Antwerp
Over 8.5 corners
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Antwerp at 40.7%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 54.2% and it missed (3 goals). We called Yes at 51.4% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Little between these two in the data. Antwerp at 41% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 15 August 2026. Our number sits above the market's 34% for Antwerp. The gap itself is information. Totals sit close to the fence: 46% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 51%. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Kortrijk, 0 draws and 5 for Antwerp, averaging 2.8 goals a game. Recent form reads W3 D1 L2 for Kortrijk against W2 D1 L3 for Antwerp. As a promoted side, Kortrijk carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Verdict: no bet. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.41, zone (0.45, 0.7)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
31.3%-5.4%
28.1%-0.7%
40.7%+6.2%
outside trust zone (model prob 0.41, zone (0.45, 0.7))
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Kortrijk 0 · 0 draws · Antwerp 5 · 2.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Kortrijk
Antwerp100.0%100.0%
0.0%100.0%
0.0%0.0%
League averages this season: 3.33 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 78% · BTTS in 78%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 76.2% | Over 7.5 | 65.0% | Over 8.5 | 53.1% | Over 9.5 | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Kortrijk | 54.2% | Most: Antwerp | 33.9% | ||||
| Kortrijk Over 4.2 | 52.9% | Antwerp Over 4.2 | 38.2% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 75.0% | Over 3.5 | 55.1% | Over 4.5 | 35.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Kortrijk | 31.7% | Most: Antwerp | 47.7% | ||
| Kortrijk Over 1.8 | 52.3% | Antwerp Over 1.8 | 63.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Kortrijk clean sheet | 25.8% |
|---|---|
| Antwerp clean sheet | 31.4% |
| Kortrijk win to nil | 17.0% |
| Antwerp win to nil | 22.6% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 31.3% | draw | 28.1% | away | 40.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 59.3% | 12 | 71.9% | X2 | 68.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 43.5% | away | 56.5% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 51.4% | no | 48.6% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 25.8% | away | 31.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 17.1% | away | 22.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 18.3% | home_by_2 | 8.9% | home_by_3plus | 4.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 21.6% | away_by_2 | 12.2% | away_by_3plus | 7.0% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.8% | 0-1 | 10.4% | 0-2 | 7.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.4% | 0-4 | 1.1% | 0-5 | 0.3% |
| 1-0 | 8.8% | 1-1 | 13.3% | 1-2 | 8.6% |
| 1-3 | 3.9% | 1-4 | 1.3% | 1-5 | 0.4% |
| 2-0 | 5.4% | 2-1 | 7.3% | 2-2 | 5.0% |
| 2-3 | 2.3% | 2-4 | 0.8% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.1% | 3-1 | 2.8% | 3-2 | 1.9% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.6% | 4-1 | 0.8% | 4-2 | 0.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.2% | under_0.5 | 8.8% | over_1.5 | 72.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.9% | over_2.5 | 45.9% | under_2.5 | 54.2% |
| over_3.5 | 24.5% | under_3.5 | 75.5% | over_4.5 | 11.0% |
| under_4.5 | 89.0% | over_5.5 | 4.3% | under_5.5 | 95.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 68.5% | under_0.5 | 31.5% | over_1.5 | 32.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.9% | over_2.5 | 11.1% | under_2.5 | 88.9% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 74.2% | under_0.5 | 25.8% | over_1.5 | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.8% | over_2.5 | 15.6% | under_2.5 | 84.4% |
most
| home | 31.3% | draw | 28.1% | away | 40.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.1% | away_+2.5 | 95.9% | home_-1.5 | 13.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 87.0% | home_-0.5 | 31.3% | away_+0.5 | 68.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 59.3% | away_-0.5 | 40.7% | home_+1.5 | 80.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 19.1% | home_+2.5 | 93.1% | away_-2.5 | 7.0% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.8% | exact_1 | 19.1% | exact_2 | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.4% | exact_4 | 13.4% | exact_5 | 6.8% |
| exact_6 | 2.8% | exact_7plus | 1.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 31.6% | draw | 42.6% | away | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 68.8% | under_0.5 | 31.2% | over_1.5 | 32.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.5% | over_2.5 | 11.3% | under_2.5 | 88.7% |
btts
| yes | 19.4% | no | 80.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 31.2% | exact_1 | 36.3% | exact_2 | 21.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.2% | exact_4plus | 3.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 24.2% | draw | 39.2% | away | 36.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.5% | under_0.5 | 26.6% | over_1.5 | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.8% | over_2.5 | 14.9% | under_2.5 | 85.1% |
btts
| yes | 23.0% | no | 77.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 22.4% | H/D | 6.4% | H/A | 2.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 10.3% | D/D | 16.7% | D/A | 15.6% |
| A/H | 1.2% | A/D | 3.9% | A/A | 20.7% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 76.9% | under_7.5 | 23.1% | over_8.5 | 66.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 34.0% | over_9.5 | 54.1% | under_9.5 | 45.9% |
| over_10.5 | 42.3% | under_10.5 | 57.7% | over_11.5 | 31.5% |
| under_11.5 | 68.5% | over_12.5 | 22.3% | under_12.5 | 77.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.9% | under_3.5 | 24.1% | over_4.5 | 61.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 38.9% | over_5.5 | 45.8% | under_5.5 | 54.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 64.0% | under_3.5 | 36.0% | over_4.5 | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.0% | over_5.5 | 31.7% | under_5.5 | 68.3% |
most
| home | 54.1% | draw | 10.5% | away | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.2% | away_+3.5 | 75.9% | home_-1.5 | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.6% | home_-0.5 | 54.1% | away_+0.5 | 45.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.6% | away_-0.5 | 35.4% | home_+1.5 | 74.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 25.9% | home_+3.5 | 88.2% | away_-3.5 | 11.8% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 68.6% | under_22.5 | 31.4% | over_24.5 | 57.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 42.9% | over_26.5 | 45.4% | under_26.5 | 54.7% |
| over_28.5 | 34.2% | under_28.5 | 65.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 77.1% | under_10.5 | 22.9% | over_12.5 | 62.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 37.4% | over_14.5 | 47.1% | under_14.5 | 52.9% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 56.4% | under_10.5 | 43.6% | over_12.5 | 39.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 60.9% | over_14.5 | 24.7% | under_14.5 | 75.4% |
most
| home | 63.5% | draw | 5.5% | away | 31.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 39.9% | away_+4.5 | 60.1% | home_-2.5 | 51.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 48.2% | home_-0.5 | 63.5% | away_+0.5 | 36.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.0% | away_-0.5 | 31.1% | home_+2.5 | 78.6% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.3% | home_+4.5 | 86.3% | away_-4.5 | 13.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 76.2% | under_6.5 | 23.8% | over_7.5 | 65.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 35.0% | over_8.5 | 53.1% | under_8.5 | 46.9% |
| over_9.5 | 41.4% | under_9.5 | 58.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.2% | under_3.5 | 30.8% | over_4.5 | 52.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.1% | over_5.5 | 37.5% | under_5.5 | 62.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 55.8% | under_3.5 | 44.3% | over_4.5 | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 61.8% | over_5.5 | 24.0% | under_5.5 | 76.0% |
most
| home | 54.2% | draw | 11.9% | away | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 30.7% | away_+2.5 | 69.3% | home_-0.5 | 54.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 45.8% | home_+0.5 | 66.1% | away_-0.5 | 33.9% |
| home_+2.5 | 84.8% | away_-2.5 | 15.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 75.0% | under_2.5 | 25.0% | over_3.5 | 55.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 44.9% | over_4.5 | 35.5% | under_4.5 | 64.5% |
| over_5.5 | 20.2% | under_5.5 | 79.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 52.3% | under_1.5 | 47.7% | over_2.5 | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 74.3% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 63.7% | under_1.5 | 36.3% | over_2.5 | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 63.2% |
most
| home | 31.7% | draw | 20.5% | away | 47.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 15.9% | away_+1.5 | 84.2% | home_-0.5 | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 68.3% | home_+0.5 | 52.3% | away_-0.5 | 47.7% |
| home_+1.5 | 71.9% | away_-1.5 | 28.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 63.9% | under_20.5 | 36.1% | over_22.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 50.5% | over_24.5 | 35.7% | under_24.5 | 64.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 59.1% | under_9.5 | 40.9% | over_11.5 | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 61.9% | over_13.5 | 21.3% | under_13.5 | 78.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 72.3% | under_9.5 | 27.7% | over_11.5 | 53.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 47.0% | over_13.5 | 34.2% | under_13.5 | 65.8% |
most
| home | 36.1% | draw | 7.1% | away | 56.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 18.3% | away_+3.5 | 81.7% | home_-0.5 | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.9% | home_+2.5 | 57.7% | away_-2.5 | 42.3% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 24.4% | no | 75.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 13.1% | no | 86.9% |
|---|
away
| yes | 13.0% | no | 87.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Kortrijk predictions · Antwerp predictions · Pro League
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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