Famalicao vs Maritimo: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 16 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga

Famalicao

WDDWD

Full time1-2Sun, 16 Aug 202620:30UK

Maritimo

DLWLW

Model’s top convictions

84%

Famalicao or draw

72%

Over 1.5 goals

59%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time0 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Famalicao 1-2 Maritimo

✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✕ Both teams to score

0 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Famalicao at 59.1%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 54.7% and it missed (3 goals). We called No at 55.2% and it missed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

FamalicaoWin probability

59.1%

Top 3 convictions

Famalicao or draw83.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.19

Over 1.5 goals71.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.40

Over 8.5 corners58.5%Good chancePays @ 1.71

Model read

▾

"59% on Famalicao is a measurement, not a promise." Few Primeira Liga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Famalicao carry a 59% win probability against Maritimo on 16 August 2026. Our number sits above the market's 54% for Famalicao. The gap itself is information. Totals sit close to the fence: 45% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 45%. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Famalicao, 2 draws and 0 for Maritimo at 2.0 goals per match. Form guide over the last six: Famalicao W2 D4 L0, Maritimo W2 D1 L3. Maritimo are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.003 <= 0).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals45.3%@ 2.21

Draw or Maritimo40.9%@ 2.44

Over 10.5 corners38.9%@ 2.57

Medium risk

Not both teams to score55.2%@ 1.81

Under 2.5 goals54.7%@ 1.83

Over 9.5 corners48.4%@ 2.07

Random finds

1-0 correct score13.7%@ 7.30

2-0 correct score12.2%@ 8.22

1-1 correct score11.6%@ 8.63

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Famalicao

59.1%+4.9%

Draw

24.7%-0.9%

Maritimo

16.2%-4.0%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.003 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.571.5%

Strong chance

Over 2.545.3%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes44.8%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.558.5%

Good chance

Over 9.548.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.4%

Toss-up

Most cornersFamalicao50.2%Maritimo39.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.554.7%

Good chance

Over 24.542.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.531.4%

Toss-up

Over 28.521.9%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.5%2.545.3%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.571.5%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

FamalicaoWDDWD

MaritimoDLWLW

Last 5 meetings: Famalicao 3 · 2 draws · Maritimo 0 · 2.0 goals/game.

2023-04-22Famalicao 3-2 Maritimo

2022-11-06Maritimo 0-0 Famalicao

2022-02-20Maritimo 0-1 Famalicao

2021-09-18Famalicao 0-0 Maritimo

2021-03-21Maritimo 0-4 Famalicao

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Famalicao

Maritimo

League position#14 of 18#4 of 18

Record W-D-L0-1-01-0-0

Current streakD1W1

Points per game1.003.00

Goals scored per game1.001.00

Goals conceded per game1.000.00

1st half goals per game1.000.00

2nd half goals per game0.001.00

Corners won per game6.02.0

Cards per game2.02.0

Fouls per game13.017.0

Red cards this season00

Shots per game6.016.0

Shots on target per game3.04.0

Over 2.5 rate

0.0%0.0%

BTTS rate

100.0%0.0%

Clean sheets

0.0%100.0%

Rates this season:FamalicaoMaritimo

League averages this season: 2.56 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 44% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Famalicao win1.761.69

Draw3.604.05

Maritimo win4.506.17

Over 2.5 goals2.052.21

Under 2.5 goals1.751.83

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Famalicao win1.69

Draw4.04

Maritimo win6.18

Both teams to score2.23

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10

Over 1.5 goals1.40

Over 2.5 goals2.21

Over 3.5 goals4.17

Famalicao most1.69

Maritimo most6.18

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.38

Over 8.5 corners1.63

Over 9.5 corners2.01

Over 10.5 corners2.58

Famalicao most1.99

Maritimo most2.53

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.15

Over 3.5 cards1.38

Over 4.5 cards1.84

Over 5.5 cards2.71

Famalicao most2.61

Maritimo most2.31

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.46

Over 7.5 SoT1.80

Over 8.5 SoT2.34

Over 9.5 SoT3.22

Famalicao most1.84

Maritimo most3.04

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.83

Over 24.5 shots2.35

Over 26.5 shots3.19

Over 28.5 shots4.56

Famalicao most1.66

Maritimo most2.95

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.10

Over 22.5 fouls1.20

Over 24.5 fouls1.35

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	68.4%	Over 7.5	55.5%	Over 8.5	42.7%	Over 9.5	31.1%
Most: Famalicao	54.3%	Most: Maritimo	32.9%
Famalicao Over 4.2	46.0%	Maritimo Over 4.2	30.7%

Cards

Over 2.5	86.8%	Over 3.5	72.3%	Over 4.5	54.5%
Most: Famalicao	38.3%	Most: Maritimo	43.2%
Famalicao Over 1.8	68.9%	Maritimo Over 1.8	71.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Famalicao clean sheet	45.6%
Maritimo clean sheet	18.1%
Famalicao win to nil	36.8%
Maritimo win to nil	9.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	59.1%	draw	24.7%	away	16.2%

double_chance

1X	83.8%	12	75.3%	X2	40.9%

dnb

home	78.5%	away	21.5%

btts

yes	44.8%	no	55.2%

clean_sheet

home	46.0%	away	18.1%

win_to_nil

home	37.1%	away	9.2%

winning_margin

home_by_1	25.5%	home_by_2	18.5%	home_by_3plus	15.1%
away_by_1	11.3%	away_by_2	3.8%	away_by_3plus	1.1%

correct_score

0-0	8.9%	0-1	5.9%	0-2	2.5%
0-3	0.7%	0-4	0.1%	0-5	0.0%
1-0	13.7%	1-1	11.6%	1-2	4.3%
1-3	1.1%	1-4	0.2%	1-5	0.0%
2-0	12.2%	2-1	9.4%	2-2	3.7%
2-3	1.0%	2-4	0.2%	2-5	0.0%
3-0	6.9%	3-1	5.4%	3-2	2.1%
3-3	0.5%	3-4	0.1%	3-5	0.0%
4-0	3.0%	4-1	2.3%	4-2	0.9%
4-3	0.2%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	1.0%	5-1	0.8%	5-2	0.3%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.8%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	0.0%	p	13.7%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	91.1%	under_0.5	8.9%	over_1.5	71.5%
under_1.5	28.5%	over_2.5	45.3%	under_2.5	54.7%
over_3.5	24.0%	under_3.5	76.0%	over_4.5	10.7%
under_4.5	89.3%	over_5.5	4.1%	under_5.5	95.9%

odd_even

odd	48.6%	even	51.4%

team_home

over_0.5	81.9%	under_0.5	18.1%	over_1.5	51.0%
under_1.5	49.0%	over_2.5	24.5%	under_2.5	75.5%

team_away

over_0.5	54.0%	under_0.5	46.0%	over_1.5	18.3%
under_1.5	81.7%	over_2.5	4.4%	under_2.5	95.6%

most

home	59.1%	draw	24.7%	away	16.2%

handicap

home_-2.5	15.1%	away_+2.5	84.9%	home_-1.5	33.6%
away_+1.5	66.4%	home_-0.5	59.1%	away_+0.5	40.9%
home_+0.5	83.8%	away_-0.5	16.2%	home_+1.5	95.1%
away_-1.5	4.9%	home_+2.5	98.9%	away_-2.5	1.1%

total_exact

exact_0	8.9%	exact_1	19.6%	exact_2	26.3%
exact_3	21.3%	exact_4	13.3%	exact_5	6.6%
exact_6	2.7%	exact_7plus	1.4%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	28.8%	draw	51.5%	away	19.7%

total

over_0.5	56.0%	under_0.5	44.0%	over_1.5	19.9%
under_1.5	80.1%	over_2.5	5.1%	under_2.5	95.0%

btts

yes	11.1%	no	88.9%

total_exact

exact_0	44.0%	exact_1	36.1%	exact_2	14.8%
exact_3	4.1%	exact_4plus	1.0%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	37.4%	draw	39.6%	away	23.0%

total

over_0.5	72.7%	under_0.5	27.3%	over_1.5	37.3%
under_1.5	62.7%	over_2.5	14.3%	under_2.5	85.7%

btts

yes	22.1%	no	77.9%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	23.3%	H/D	4.3%	H/A	1.3%
D/H	19.3%	D/D	20.4%	D/A	11.9%
A/H	2.1%	A/D	4.5%	A/A	13.1%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	72.3%	under_7.5	27.7%	over_8.5	61.3%
under_8.5	38.7%	over_9.5	49.8%	under_9.5	50.2%
over_10.5	38.8%	under_10.5	61.2%	over_11.5	29.0%
under_11.5	71.0%	over_12.5	20.8%	under_12.5	79.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	69.8%	under_3.5	30.2%	over_4.5	54.9%
under_4.5	45.1%	over_5.5	40.6%	under_5.5	59.4%

team_away

over_3.5	62.5%	under_3.5	37.5%	over_4.5	46.6%
under_4.5	53.4%	over_5.5	32.4%	under_5.5	67.6%

most

home	50.4%	draw	10.1%	away	39.5%

handicap

home_-3.5	22.6%	away_+3.5	77.4%	home_-1.5	40.2%
away_+1.5	59.8%	home_-0.5	50.4%	away_+0.5	49.6%
home_+0.5	60.5%	away_-0.5	39.5%	home_+1.5	70.0%
away_-1.5	30.0%	home_+3.5	84.9%	away_-3.5	15.1%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	54.7%	under_22.5	45.3%	over_24.5	42.5%
under_24.5	57.5%	over_26.5	31.4%	under_26.5	68.6%
over_28.5	21.9%	under_28.5	78.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	66.6%	under_10.5	33.4%	over_12.5	50.2%
under_12.5	49.8%	over_14.5	34.8%	under_14.5	65.1%

team_away

over_10.5	48.3%	under_10.5	51.7%	over_12.5	31.5%
under_12.5	68.5%	over_14.5	18.6%	under_14.5	81.4%

most

home	60.2%	draw	5.9%	away	33.9%

handicap

home_-4.5	35.7%	away_+4.5	64.3%	home_-2.5	47.8%
away_+2.5	52.2%	home_-0.5	60.2%	away_+0.5	39.8%
home_+0.5	66.1%	away_-0.5	33.9%	home_+2.5	76.7%
away_-2.5	23.3%	home_+4.5	85.1%	away_-4.5	14.9%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	68.4%	under_6.5	31.6%	over_7.5	55.5%
under_7.5	44.5%	over_8.5	42.7%	under_8.5	57.3%
over_9.5	31.1%	under_9.5	68.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	63.5%	under_3.5	36.5%	over_4.5	46.0%
under_4.5	54.0%	over_5.5	30.5%	under_5.5	69.5%

team_away

over_3.5	48.5%	under_3.5	51.5%	over_4.5	30.7%
under_4.5	69.3%	over_5.5	17.6%	under_5.5	82.4%

most

home	54.3%	draw	12.8%	away	32.9%

handicap

home_-2.5	29.0%	away_+2.5	71.0%	home_-0.5	54.3%
away_+0.5	45.7%	home_+0.5	67.1%	away_-0.5	32.9%
home_+2.5	86.6%	away_-2.5	13.4%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	86.8%	under_2.5	13.2%	over_3.5	72.3%
under_3.5	27.7%	over_4.5	54.5%	under_4.5	45.5%
over_5.5	37.0%	under_5.5	63.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	68.9%	under_1.5	31.1%	over_2.5	42.7%
under_2.5	57.3%

team_away

over_1.5	71.8%	under_1.5	28.2%	over_2.5	46.3%
under_2.5	53.7%

most

home	38.3%	draw	18.5%	away	43.2%

handicap

home_-1.5	22.3%	away_+1.5	77.7%	home_-0.5	38.3%
away_+0.5	61.7%	home_+0.5	56.8%	away_-0.5	43.2%
home_+1.5	73.8%	away_-1.5	26.3%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	90.7%	under_20.5	9.3%	over_22.5	83.5%
under_22.5	16.5%	over_24.5	73.8%	under_24.5	26.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	85.5%	under_9.5	14.5%	over_11.5	71.4%
under_11.5	28.6%	over_13.5	54.1%	under_13.5	45.9%

team_away

over_9.5	86.8%	under_9.5	13.2%	over_11.5	73.3%
under_11.5	26.7%	over_13.5	56.5%	under_13.5	43.5%

most

home	45.1%	draw	6.3%	away	48.5%

handicap

home_-3.5	27.5%	away_+3.5	72.5%	home_-0.5	45.1%
away_+0.5	54.9%	home_+2.5	63.8%	away_-2.5	36.2%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	15.0%	no	85.0%

home

yes	6.3%	no	93.7%

away

yes	9.3%	no	90.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Famalicao predictions · Maritimo predictions · Primeira Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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