Rio Ave vs Porto: model prediction
Primeira LigaDraw or Porto
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Porto at 60.0%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 53.5% and it landed (2 goals). We called No at 54.7% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Porto heavy favourites at 60% when Rio Ave meet Porto in the Primeira Liga on 15 August 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Porto higher (69%) than our model does. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 46% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 45%. 3) History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Rio Ave, 2 draws and 3 for Porto at 2.0 goals per match. Recent form reads W0 D3 L3 for Rio Ave against W5 D0 L1 for Porto. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.11).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
15.8%+4.5%
24.2%+4.3%
60.0%-8.8%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.11)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Rio Ave 0 · 2 draws · Porto 3 · 2.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Rio Ave
Porto0.0%0.0%
0.0%0.0%
0.0%100.0%
League averages this season: 2.56 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 44% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 69.9% | Over 7.5 | 57.2% | Over 8.5 | 44.4% | Over 9.5 | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Rio Ave | 35.9% | Most: Porto | 51.2% | ||||
| Rio Ave Over 4.2 | 34.2% | Porto Over 4.2 | 45.1% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 87.3% | Over 3.5 | 73.2% | Over 4.5 | 55.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Rio Ave | 47.5% | Most: Porto | 34.3% | ||
| Rio Ave Over 1.8 | 74.8% | Porto Over 1.8 | 66.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Rio Ave clean sheet | 17.3% |
|---|---|
| Porto clean sheet | 45.5% |
| Rio Ave win to nil | 8.9% |
| Porto win to nil | 37.0% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 15.8% | draw | 24.2% | away | 60.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 40.0% | 12 | 75.8% | X2 | 84.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 20.8% | away | 79.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 45.3% | no | 54.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 17.3% | away | 45.9% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 8.9% | away | 37.4% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 11.0% | home_by_2 | 3.7% | home_by_3plus | 1.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 25.3% | away_by_2 | 18.8% | away_by_3plus | 15.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.5% | 0-1 | 13.4% | 0-2 | 12.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 7.1% | 0-4 | 3.1% | 0-5 | 1.1% |
| 1-0 | 5.6% | 1-1 | 11.4% | 1-2 | 9.5% |
| 1-3 | 5.5% | 1-4 | 2.4% | 1-5 | 0.9% |
| 2-0 | 2.4% | 2-1 | 4.2% | 2-2 | 3.7% |
| 2-3 | 2.2% | 2-4 | 1.0% | 2-5 | 0.3% |
| 3-0 | 0.6% | 3-1 | 1.1% | 3-2 | 1.0% |
| 3-3 | 0.6% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.1% | 4-1 | 0.2% | 4-2 | 0.2% |
| 4-3 | 0.1% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.0% | 5-1 | 0.0% | 5-2 | 0.0% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.9% |
likeliest_score
| h | 0.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.5% | under_0.5 | 8.5% | over_1.5 | 72.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.5% | over_2.5 | 46.5% | under_2.5 | 53.5% |
| over_3.5 | 25.0% | under_3.5 | 75.1% | over_4.5 | 11.3% |
| under_4.5 | 88.7% | over_5.5 | 4.4% | under_5.5 | 95.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 54.1% | under_0.5 | 45.9% | over_1.5 | 18.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 81.6% | over_2.5 | 4.5% | under_2.5 | 95.5% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 82.7% | under_0.5 | 17.3% | over_1.5 | 52.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 47.7% | over_2.5 | 25.7% | under_2.5 | 74.3% |
most
| home | 15.8% | draw | 24.2% | away | 60.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 1.1% | away_+2.5 | 98.9% | home_-1.5 | 4.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 95.2% | home_-0.5 | 15.8% | away_+0.5 | 84.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 40.0% | away_-0.5 | 60.0% | home_+1.5 | 65.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 34.7% | home_+2.5 | 84.1% | away_-2.5 | 15.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.5% | exact_1 | 19.0% | exact_2 | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.5% | exact_4 | 13.6% | exact_5 | 6.9% |
| exact_6 | 2.9% | exact_7plus | 1.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 10.2% | draw | 42.1% | away | 47.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 64.9% | under_0.5 | 35.1% | over_1.5 | 28.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 71.8% | over_2.5 | 8.9% | under_2.5 | 91.1% |
btts
| yes | 11.6% | no | 88.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 35.1% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 19.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.7% | exact_4plus | 2.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 18.5% | draw | 35.8% | away | 45.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.7% | under_0.5 | 23.3% | over_1.5 | 42.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.3% | over_2.5 | 18.0% | under_2.5 | 82.0% |
btts
| yes | 24.1% | no | 75.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 5.8% | H/D | 2.7% | H/A | 1.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 7.8% | D/D | 15.1% | D/A | 19.2% |
| A/H | 1.3% | A/D | 5.0% | A/A | 41.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 71.8% | under_7.5 | 28.2% | over_8.5 | 60.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 39.4% | over_9.5 | 49.1% | under_9.5 | 50.9% |
| over_10.5 | 38.1% | under_10.5 | 61.9% | over_11.5 | 28.3% |
| under_11.5 | 71.7% | over_12.5 | 20.2% | under_12.5 | 79.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 64.3% | under_3.5 | 35.7% | over_4.5 | 48.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.4% | over_5.5 | 34.4% | under_5.5 | 65.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 67.4% | under_3.5 | 32.6% | over_4.5 | 52.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.9% | over_5.5 | 37.8% | under_5.5 | 62.2% |
most
| home | 42.6% | draw | 10.3% | away | 47.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 17.0% | away_+3.5 | 83.0% | home_-1.5 | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 67.2% | home_-0.5 | 42.6% | away_+0.5 | 57.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 52.8% | away_-0.5 | 47.2% | home_+1.5 | 62.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 37.1% | home_+3.5 | 79.9% | away_-3.5 | 20.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 58.5% | under_22.5 | 41.5% | over_24.5 | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 53.6% | over_26.5 | 35.0% | under_26.5 | 65.0% |
| over_28.5 | 25.1% | under_28.5 | 74.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 61.8% | under_10.5 | 38.2% | over_12.5 | 44.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 55.1% | over_14.5 | 29.9% | under_14.5 | 70.1% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 59.5% | under_10.5 | 40.5% | over_12.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 57.6% | over_14.5 | 27.7% | under_14.5 | 72.3% |
most
| home | 48.7% | draw | 6.1% | away | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 25.9% | away_+4.5 | 74.1% | home_-2.5 | 36.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 63.3% | home_-0.5 | 48.7% | away_+0.5 | 51.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 54.8% | away_-0.5 | 45.2% | home_+2.5 | 66.6% |
| away_-2.5 | 33.4% | home_+4.5 | 76.9% | away_-4.5 | 23.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 69.9% | under_6.5 | 30.1% | over_7.5 | 57.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 42.8% | over_8.5 | 44.4% | under_8.5 | 55.6% |
| over_9.5 | 32.7% | under_9.5 | 67.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 52.1% | under_3.5 | 47.9% | over_4.5 | 34.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 65.8% | over_5.5 | 20.3% | under_5.5 | 79.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 62.7% | under_3.5 | 37.3% | over_4.5 | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.9% | over_5.5 | 29.6% | under_5.5 | 70.4% |
most
| home | 35.9% | draw | 12.9% | away | 51.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 15.5% | away_+2.5 | 84.6% | home_-0.5 | 35.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 64.1% | home_+0.5 | 48.8% | away_-0.5 | 51.2% |
| home_+2.5 | 73.4% | away_-2.5 | 26.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 87.3% | under_2.5 | 12.7% | over_3.5 | 73.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 26.8% | over_4.5 | 55.6% | under_4.5 | 44.5% |
| over_5.5 | 38.0% | under_5.5 | 62.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 74.8% | under_1.5 | 25.2% | over_2.5 | 50.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 49.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 66.9% | under_1.5 | 33.1% | over_2.5 | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 59.7% |
most
| home | 47.5% | draw | 18.2% | away | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 30.0% | away_+1.5 | 70.0% | home_-0.5 | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.5% | home_+0.5 | 65.7% | away_-0.5 | 34.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 80.7% | away_-1.5 | 19.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 84.3% | under_20.5 | 15.7% | over_22.5 | 74.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 25.6% | over_24.5 | 62.4% | under_24.5 | 37.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 78.4% | under_9.5 | 21.7% | over_11.5 | 61.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 39.0% | over_13.5 | 42.6% | under_13.5 | 57.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 82.9% | under_9.5 | 17.2% | over_11.5 | 67.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 32.6% | over_13.5 | 49.5% | under_13.5 | 50.5% |
most
| home | 41.9% | draw | 6.5% | away | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.3% | away_+3.5 | 75.7% | home_-0.5 | 41.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 58.1% | home_+2.5 | 61.4% | away_-2.5 | 38.6% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 22.4% | no | 77.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 17.5% | no | 82.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.0% | no | 94.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Rio Ave predictions · Porto predictions · Primeira Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets