For Sittard vs Cambuur: model prediction
EredivisieOver 1.5 goals
For Sittard or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was For Sittard at 51.8%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 59.5% and it landed (4 goals). We called Yes at 60.1% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes For Sittard heavy favourites at 52% when For Sittard meet Cambuur in the Eredivisie on 15 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate For Sittard higher (57%) than our model does. • No strong lean on goals (60% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Recent form reads W1 D2 L3 for For Sittard against W1 D0 L5 for Cambuur. • Cambuur are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The recent series reads 2 wins for For Sittard, 0 draws and 2 for Cambuur over 4 games, 3.0 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.20)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
51.8%-5.1%
23.7%+0.2%
24.5%+4.9%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.20)
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Strong chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: For Sittard 2 · 0 draws · Cambuur 2 · 3.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
For Sittard
Cambuur100.0%100.0%
100.0%0.0%
0.0%0.0%
League averages this season: 2.78 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 44%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 81.5% | Over 7.5 | 72.1% | Over 8.5 | 61.5% | Over 9.5 | 50.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: For Sittard | 47.4% | Most: Cambuur | 41.4% | ||||
| For Sittard Over 4.2 | 54.0% | Cambuur Over 4.2 | 49.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 56.1% | Over 3.5 | 33.7% | Over 4.5 | 17.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: For Sittard | 34.9% | Most: Cambuur | 40.5% | ||
| For Sittard Over 1.8 | 40.9% | Cambuur Over 1.8 | 45.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| For Sittard clean sheet | 29.1% |
|---|---|
| Cambuur clean sheet | 15.5% |
| For Sittard win to nil | 24.0% |
| Cambuur win to nil | 10.4% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 51.8% | draw | 23.7% | away | 24.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 75.5% | 12 | 76.3% | X2 | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 67.9% | away | 32.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 60.1% | no | 39.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 29.5% | away | 15.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 24.3% | away | 10.5% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.2% | home_by_2 | 15.9% | home_by_3plus | 13.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 14.4% | away_by_2 | 6.9% | away_by_3plus | 3.2% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.1% | 0-1 | 5.1% | 0-2 | 3.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.4% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 8.0% | 1-1 | 10.9% | 1-2 | 6.4% |
| 1-3 | 2.6% | 1-4 | 0.8% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.9% | 2-1 | 9.7% | 2-2 | 5.9% |
| 2-3 | 2.4% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 4.9% | 3-1 | 6.0% | 3-2 | 3.7% |
| 3-3 | 1.5% | 3-4 | 0.5% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 2.3% | 4-1 | 2.8% | 4-2 | 1.7% |
| 4-3 | 0.7% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.9% | 5-1 | 1.0% | 5-2 | 0.6% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 10.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 94.9% | under_0.5 | 5.1% | over_1.5 | 81.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 18.2% | over_2.5 | 59.5% | under_2.5 | 40.5% |
| over_3.5 | 37.2% | under_3.5 | 62.8% | over_4.5 | 19.9% |
| under_4.5 | 80.1% | over_5.5 | 9.3% | under_5.5 | 90.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.9% | even | 51.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 84.5% | under_0.5 | 15.6% | over_1.5 | 55.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 44.5% | over_2.5 | 28.6% | under_2.5 | 71.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 70.6% | under_0.5 | 29.5% | over_1.5 | 34.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.5% | over_2.5 | 12.6% | under_2.5 | 87.5% |
most
| home | 51.8% | draw | 23.7% | away | 24.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 13.7% | away_+2.5 | 86.3% | home_-1.5 | 29.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 70.3% | home_-0.5 | 51.8% | away_+0.5 | 48.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 75.5% | away_-0.5 | 24.5% | home_+1.5 | 89.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 10.1% | home_+2.5 | 96.8% | away_-2.5 | 3.2% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.1% | exact_1 | 13.1% | exact_2 | 22.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 17.3% | exact_5 | 10.6% |
| exact_6 | 5.5% | exact_7plus | 3.8% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 51.1% | draw | 31.6% | away | 17.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 81.8% | under_0.5 | 18.2% | over_1.5 | 50.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 49.3% | over_2.5 | 24.3% | under_2.5 | 75.7% |
btts
| yes | 28.7% | no | 71.3% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 18.2% | exact_1 | 31.0% | exact_2 | 26.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 15.0% | exact_4plus | 9.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 33.9% | draw | 35.6% | away | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 79.3% | under_0.5 | 20.7% | over_1.5 | 46.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.3% | over_2.5 | 21.1% | under_2.5 | 78.9% |
btts
| yes | 29.7% | no | 70.3% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 40.8% | H/D | 7.2% | H/A | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 10.7% | D/D | 11.3% | D/A | 9.6% |
| A/H | 1.6% | A/D | 3.3% | A/A | 12.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 80.8% | under_7.5 | 19.2% | over_8.5 | 71.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 29.0% | over_9.5 | 60.0% | under_9.5 | 40.0% |
| over_10.5 | 48.5% | under_10.5 | 51.5% | over_11.5 | 37.6% |
| under_11.5 | 62.4% | over_12.5 | 27.9% | under_12.5 | 72.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.6% | under_3.5 | 24.4% | over_4.5 | 61.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 38.5% | over_5.5 | 47.1% | under_5.5 | 52.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 68.8% | under_3.5 | 31.2% | over_4.5 | 53.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.7% | over_5.5 | 38.6% | under_5.5 | 61.4% |
most
| home | 50.7% | draw | 9.7% | away | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.8% | away_+3.5 | 76.2% | home_-1.5 | 41.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 59.0% | home_-0.5 | 50.7% | away_+0.5 | 49.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 60.3% | away_-0.5 | 39.7% | home_+1.5 | 69.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 30.6% | home_+3.5 | 84.0% | away_-3.5 | 16.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 71.1% | under_22.5 | 28.9% | over_24.5 | 60.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 39.4% | over_26.5 | 49.6% | under_26.5 | 50.4% |
| over_28.5 | 38.8% | under_28.5 | 61.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 75.1% | under_10.5 | 24.9% | over_12.5 | 61.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 39.0% | over_14.5 | 46.4% | under_14.5 | 53.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 62.3% | under_10.5 | 37.7% | over_12.5 | 46.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 53.7% | over_14.5 | 31.8% | under_14.5 | 68.2% |
most
| home | 57.6% | draw | 5.4% | away | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 35.6% | away_+4.5 | 64.4% | home_-2.5 | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 53.5% | home_-0.5 | 57.6% | away_+0.5 | 42.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.0% | away_-0.5 | 37.0% | home_+2.5 | 73.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 27.0% | home_+4.5 | 81.4% | away_-4.5 | 18.6% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 81.5% | under_6.5 | 18.5% | over_7.5 | 72.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 27.9% | over_8.5 | 61.6% | under_8.5 | 38.5% |
| over_9.5 | 50.6% | under_9.5 | 49.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.6% | under_3.5 | 30.4% | over_4.5 | 54.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.0% | over_5.5 | 39.2% | under_5.5 | 60.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 65.9% | under_3.5 | 34.1% | over_4.5 | 49.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.2% | over_5.5 | 35.1% | under_5.5 | 65.0% |
most
| home | 47.4% | draw | 11.2% | away | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 26.6% | away_+2.5 | 73.4% | home_-0.5 | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.6% | home_+0.5 | 58.6% | away_-0.5 | 41.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 78.1% | away_-2.5 | 21.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 56.1% | under_2.5 | 43.9% | over_3.5 | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 66.3% | over_4.5 | 17.3% | under_4.5 | 82.7% |
| over_5.5 | 7.7% | under_5.5 | 92.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.9% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 40.9% | under_1.5 | 59.1% | over_2.5 | 16.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 83.3% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 45.1% | under_1.5 | 54.9% | over_2.5 | 19.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 80.2% |
most
| home | 34.9% | draw | 24.6% | away | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 16.0% | away_+1.5 | 84.0% | home_-0.5 | 34.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 65.1% | home_+0.5 | 59.5% | away_-0.5 | 40.5% |
| home_+1.5 | 80.1% | away_-1.5 | 19.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 58.1% | under_20.5 | 41.9% | over_22.5 | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 57.2% | over_24.5 | 29.0% | under_24.5 | 71.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 58.8% | under_9.5 | 41.2% | over_11.5 | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 63.0% | over_13.5 | 19.8% | under_13.5 | 80.2% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 66.2% | under_9.5 | 33.8% | over_11.5 | 44.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 55.1% | over_13.5 | 26.2% | under_13.5 | 73.9% |
most
| home | 40.6% | draw | 7.7% | away | 51.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.5% | away_+3.5 | 79.5% | home_-0.5 | 40.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 59.5% | home_+2.5 | 63.5% | away_-2.5 | 36.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 11.1% | no | 88.9% |
|---|
home
| yes | 6.5% | no | 93.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 4.9% | no | 95.1% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: For Sittard predictions · Cambuur predictions · Eredivisie
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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