Arsenal vs Coventry: model prediction
Premier League
Arsenal or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Arsenal at 75.8%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 56.3% and it landed (3 goals). We called No at 56.5% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Arsenal heavy favourites at 76% when Arsenal meet Coventry in the Premier League on 21 August 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) No strong lean on goals (56% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 2) As a promoted side, Coventry carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. 3) Squad notes: Arsenal have J.Timber ruled out, Saliba ruled out, Bruno G. a doubt, Mikel Merino, Eberechi Eze, Martin Odegaard, Jurrien Timber ruled out. Gabriel Jesus drives the home shot volume, 1.7 on target per 90. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
75.8%
16.1%
8.1%
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Referee history
Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 5.46
@ 2.21
@ 2.68
@ 5.03
@ 1.79
@ 1.44
@ 7.41
@ 2.27
@ 2.54
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
- J.TimberArsenalOut0% to play
- SalibaArsenalOut0% to play
- Bruno G.ArsenalDoubtful75% to play
- Mikel Merino, Eberechi Eze, Martin Odegaard, Jurrien TimberArsenalOut
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 66.6% | Over 7.5 | 54.1% | Over 8.5 | 41.9% | Over 9.5 | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Arsenal | 62.2% | Most: Coventry | 26.2% | ||||
| Arsenal Over 4.2 | 50.6% | Coventry Over 4.2 | 24.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 69.4% | Over 3.5 | 48.1% | Over 4.5 | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Arsenal | 27.7% | Most: Coventry | 51.2% | ||
| Arsenal Over 1.8 | 44.1% | Coventry Over 1.8 | 61.6% |
Arsenal: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Jesus | 3.61 | 1.67 | 0.56 | 45.2% | 37.3% | 18.3% |
| Bukayo Saka | 3.05 | 1.03 | 0.28 | 55.8% | 69.5% | 19.9% |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 2.33 | 1 | 0.25 | 44.1% | 39.3% | 13.5% |
| Kai Havertz | 2.5 | 0.91 | 0.38 | 50.6% | 57.7% | 25.5% |
| Eberechi Eze | 2.79 | 0.88 | 0.34 | 43.0% | 53.2% | 19.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Arsenal clean sheet | 50.4% |
|---|---|
| Coventry clean sheet | 10.2% |
| Arsenal win to nil | 44.8% |
| Coventry win to nil | 4.5% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 73.9% | draw | 17.5% | away | 8.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 91.4% | 12 | 82.5% | X2 | 26.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 89.5% | away | 10.5% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 43.5% | no | 56.5% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 52.0% | away | 10.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 46.3% | away | 4.5% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.3% | home_by_2 | 22.1% | home_by_3plus | 28.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 6.4% | away_by_2 | 1.8% | away_by_3plus | 0.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.7% | 0-1 | 3.1% | 0-2 | 1.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.3% | 0-4 | 0.0% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | 1-1 | 8.3% | 1-2 | 2.6% |
| 1-3 | 0.6% | 1-4 | 0.1% | 1-5 | 0.0% |
| 2-0 | 13.8% | 2-1 | 9.0% | 2-2 | 3.0% |
| 2-3 | 0.7% | 2-4 | 0.1% | 2-5 | 0.0% |
| 3-0 | 10.5% | 3-1 | 6.9% | 3-2 | 2.3% |
| 3-3 | 0.5% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 6.0% | 4-1 | 3.9% | 4-2 | 1.3% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 2.8% | 5-1 | 1.8% | 5-2 | 0.6% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 2.9% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 13.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 94.3% | under_0.5 | 5.7% | over_1.5 | 79.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 20.5% | over_2.5 | 56.3% | under_2.5 | 43.7% |
| over_3.5 | 33.9% | under_3.5 | 66.1% | over_4.5 | 17.5% |
| under_4.5 | 82.5% | over_5.5 | 7.8% | under_5.5 | 92.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.1% | even | 50.9% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 89.8% | under_0.5 | 10.2% | over_1.5 | 66.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 33.5% | over_2.5 | 40.0% | under_2.5 | 60.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 48.0% | under_0.5 | 52.0% | over_1.5 | 14.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 86.0% | over_2.5 | 2.9% | under_2.5 | 97.1% |
most
| home | 73.9% | draw | 17.5% | away | 8.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 28.5% | away_+2.5 | 71.5% | home_-1.5 | 50.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 49.4% | home_-0.5 | 73.9% | away_+0.5 | 26.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 91.4% | away_-0.5 | 8.6% | home_+1.5 | 97.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 2.2% | home_+2.5 | 99.6% | away_-2.5 | 0.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.7% | exact_1 | 14.8% | exact_2 | 23.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 16.5% | exact_5 | 9.7% |
| exact_6 | 4.8% | exact_7plus | 3.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 50.7% | draw | 38.0% | away | 11.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 70.6% | under_0.5 | 29.4% | over_1.5 | 34.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.4% | over_2.5 | 12.6% | under_2.5 | 87.4% |
btts
| yes | 15.4% | no | 84.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 29.4% | exact_1 | 36.0% | exact_2 | 22.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 9.0% | exact_4plus | 3.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 47.8% | draw | 34.5% | away | 17.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.1% | under_0.5 | 21.9% | over_1.5 | 44.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.1% | over_2.5 | 19.6% | under_2.5 | 80.4% |
btts
| yes | 25.1% | no | 74.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 44.6% | H/D | 4.8% | H/A | 1.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 18.2% | D/D | 13.1% | D/A | 6.7% |
| A/H | 2.0% | A/D | 3.0% | A/A | 6.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.6% | under_7.5 | 25.4% | over_8.5 | 63.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 36.5% | over_9.5 | 51.7% | under_9.5 | 48.4% |
| over_10.5 | 40.1% | under_10.5 | 59.9% | over_11.5 | 29.8% |
| under_11.5 | 70.2% | over_12.5 | 21.1% | under_12.5 | 78.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 76.0% | under_3.5 | 24.0% | over_4.5 | 62.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 38.0% | over_5.5 | 47.4% | under_5.5 | 52.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 58.3% | under_3.5 | 41.7% | over_4.5 | 41.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.5% | over_5.5 | 27.4% | under_5.5 | 72.7% |
most
| home | 58.3% | draw | 9.9% | away | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.5% | away_+3.5 | 71.5% | home_-1.5 | 48.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 52.0% | home_-0.5 | 58.3% | away_+0.5 | 41.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.2% | away_-0.5 | 31.8% | home_+1.5 | 76.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.1% | home_+3.5 | 89.5% | away_-3.5 | 10.5% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 59.8% | under_22.5 | 40.3% | over_24.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 52.1% | over_26.5 | 36.6% | under_26.5 | 63.4% |
| over_28.5 | 26.4% | under_28.5 | 73.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 73.7% | under_10.5 | 26.3% | over_12.5 | 58.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.1% | over_14.5 | 43.8% | under_14.5 | 56.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 46.1% | under_10.5 | 53.9% | over_12.5 | 29.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 70.3% | over_14.5 | 17.5% | under_14.5 | 82.5% |
most
| home | 67.4% | draw | 5.3% | away | 27.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 43.9% | away_+4.5 | 56.1% | home_-2.5 | 55.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 44.1% | home_-0.5 | 67.4% | away_+0.5 | 32.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 72.6% | away_-0.5 | 27.4% | home_+2.5 | 81.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 18.3% | home_+4.5 | 88.6% | away_-4.5 | 11.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 66.6% | under_6.5 | 33.4% | over_7.5 | 54.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 45.9% | over_8.5 | 41.9% | under_8.5 | 58.1% |
| over_9.5 | 31.0% | under_9.5 | 69.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 66.8% | under_3.5 | 33.2% | over_4.5 | 50.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 49.4% | over_5.5 | 35.6% | under_5.5 | 64.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 40.8% | under_3.5 | 59.2% | over_4.5 | 24.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 75.4% | over_5.5 | 13.6% | under_5.5 | 86.4% |
most
| home | 62.2% | draw | 11.6% | away | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 37.1% | away_+2.5 | 62.9% | home_-0.5 | 62.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 37.8% | home_+0.5 | 73.8% | away_-0.5 | 26.2% |
| home_+2.5 | 90.1% | away_-2.5 | 9.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 69.4% | under_2.5 | 30.6% | over_3.5 | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 51.9% | over_4.5 | 29.0% | under_4.5 | 71.0% |
| over_5.5 | 15.3% | under_5.5 | 84.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 44.1% | under_1.5 | 55.9% | over_2.5 | 19.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 81.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 61.6% | under_1.5 | 38.4% | over_2.5 | 34.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.4% |
most
| home | 27.7% | draw | 21.1% | away | 51.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 12.6% | away_+1.5 | 87.4% | home_-0.5 | 27.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 72.3% | home_+0.5 | 48.8% | away_-0.5 | 51.2% |
| home_+1.5 | 69.8% | away_-1.5 | 30.2% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 56.9% | under_20.5 | 43.1% | over_22.5 | 40.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 59.4% | over_24.5 | 26.2% | under_24.5 | 73.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 58.0% | under_9.5 | 42.1% | over_11.5 | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 65.2% | over_13.5 | 17.3% | under_13.5 | 82.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 66.7% | under_9.5 | 33.3% | over_11.5 | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 56.0% | over_13.5 | 24.3% | under_13.5 | 75.7% |
most
| home | 39.4% | draw | 8.2% | away | 52.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 18.6% | away_+3.5 | 81.4% | home_-0.5 | 39.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.7% | home_+2.5 | 63.8% | away_-2.5 | 36.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 8.4% | no | 91.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 3.0% | no | 97.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 5.5% | no | 94.5% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Arsenal predictions · Coventry predictions · Premier League
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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