Konyaspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir prediction & probabilities (2026-10-11)

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Konyaspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 22 Sep 2026

Süper Lig
Konyaspor

LLLWD

Sun, 11 Oct 202611/1011:30UK
Istanbul Basaksehir
Model’s top convictions

78%

Konyaspor or draw

74%

Over 1.5 goals

56%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Konyaspor52.7%

Win probability · fair 1.90

Top signals

Konyaspor or drawVery likely78.4%Fair 1.28
Over 1.5 goalsLikely74.1%Fair 1.35
Over 8.5 cornersClose call55.5%Fair 1.80

Model read

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Konyaspor at 53% against Istanbul Basaksehir, Süper Lig, 11 October 2026. The numbers that frame it: • No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Istanbul Basaksehir are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Draw or Istanbul Basaksehir47.3%@ 2.11
Over 9.5 corners44.7%@ 2.24
Over 10.5 corners34.7%@ 2.88
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals51.5%@ 1.94
Both teams to score50.7%@ 1.97
Over 2.5 goals48.5%@ 2.06
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.2%@ 8.17
1-0 correct score11.5%@ 8.73
2-0 correct score9.9%@ 10.08

Model vs market

Konyaspor

52.7%

Draw

25.7%

Basaksehir

21.6%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely74.1%Fair 1.35
Over 2.5Close call48.5%Fair 2.06
BTTS · YesClose call50.7%Fair 1.97

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call55.5%Fair 1.80
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely44.7%Fair 2.24
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely34.7%Fair 2.88
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot26.1%Fair 3.83
Most cornersKonyaspor51.8%Istanbul Basaksehir37.1%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely65.8%Fair 1.52
Over 24.5 shotsClose call53.8%Fair 1.86
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely41.9%Fair 2.39
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely30.8%Fair 3.24

Recent shot volume

Konyaspor11.7 taken14.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.574.1%2.548.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.574.1%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

KonyasporLLLWD

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

KonyasporIstanbul Basaksehir
League position#15 of 20#18 of 20
Record W-D-L1-1-41-0-1
Current streakD1W1
Points per game0.67·
Record, home vs away1-0-20-0-1
PPG, home vs away1.00·
Goals scored per game0.67·
Goals conceded per game1.33·
Scored, home vs away0.67·
Conceded, home vs away1.00·
1st half goals per game0.50·
2nd half goals per game0.17·
Corners won per game2.5·
Cards per game2.8·
Fouls per game13.5·
Red cards this season1·
Shots per game11.7·
Shots faced per game14.8·
Shots on target per game3.5·
Over 2.5 rate

33.3%·

BTTS rate

33.3%·

Clean sheets

33.3%·

Rates this season:KonyasporIstanbul Basaksehir

League averages this season: 3.02 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 44%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Konyaspor win1.90
Draw3.89
Istanbul Basaksehir win4.63
Both teams to score1.97

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.35
Over 2.5 goals2.06
Over 3.5 goals3.74
Konyaspor most1.90
Istanbul Basaksehir most4.63

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.44
Over 8.5 corners1.74
Over 9.5 corners2.21
Over 10.5 corners2.95
Konyaspor most1.93
Istanbul Basaksehir most2.69

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.18
Over 3.5 cards1.46
Over 4.5 cards2.00
Over 5.5 cards3.06
Konyaspor most2.45
Istanbul Basaksehir most2.49

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.40
Over 7.5 SoT1.69
Over 8.5 SoT2.14
Over 9.5 SoT2.86
Konyaspor most1.87
Istanbul Basaksehir most2.95

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.52
Over 24.5 shots1.86
Over 26.5 shots2.39
Over 28.5 shots3.24
Konyaspor most1.65
Istanbul Basaksehir most2.99

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.19
Over 22.5 fouls1.38
Over 24.5 fouls1.71
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 65.8% Over 24.5 53.8% Over 26.5 41.9% Over 28.5 30.8%
Most: Konyaspor 60.8% Most: Istanbul Basaksehir 33.4%
Konyaspor Over 13.2 50.4% Istanbul Basaksehir Over 13.2 31.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 71.5% Over 7.5 59.2% Over 8.5 46.6% Over 9.5 34.9%
Most: Konyaspor 53.6% Most: Istanbul Basaksehir 33.9%
Konyaspor Over 4.2 48.2% Istanbul Basaksehir Over 4.2 34.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 84.5% Over 3.5 68.6% Over 4.5 50.0%
Most: Konyaspor 40.9% Most: Istanbul Basaksehir 40.1%
Konyaspor Over 1.8 68.0% Istanbul Basaksehir Over 1.8 67.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Konyaspor clean sheet 37.7%
Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet 19.3%
Konyaspor win to nil 29.8%
Istanbul Basaksehir win to nil 11.4%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 52.7% draw 25.7% away 21.6%
double_chance
1X 78.4% 12 74.3% X2 47.3%
dnb
home 70.9% away 29.1%
btts
yes 50.7% no 49.3%
clean_sheet
home 38.0% away 19.3%
win_to_nil
home 30.1% away 11.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 24.0% home_by_2 16.4% home_by_3plus 12.4%
away_by_1 13.9% away_by_2 5.7% away_by_3plus 2.1%
correct_score
0-0 7.9% 0-1 6.5% 0-2 3.4%
0-3 1.1% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 11.5% 1-1 12.2% 1-2 5.7%
1-3 1.8% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.9% 2-1 9.6% 2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.5% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.4% 3-1 5.3% 3-2 2.6%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 2.2% 4-1 2.2% 4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.7% 5-1 0.7% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.1% under_0.5 7.9% over_1.5 74.1%
under_1.5 25.9% over_2.5 48.6% under_2.5 51.4%
over_3.5 26.8% under_3.5 73.3% over_4.5 12.5%
under_4.5 87.5% over_5.5 5.0% under_5.5 95.0%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 80.7% under_0.5 19.3% over_1.5 49.0%
under_1.5 51.0% over_2.5 22.9% under_2.5 77.1%
team_away
over_0.5 62.0% under_0.5 38.0% over_1.5 25.3%
under_1.5 74.7% over_2.5 7.5% under_2.5 92.5%
most
home 52.7% draw 25.7% away 21.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 12.4% away_+2.5 87.6% home_-1.5 28.7%
away_+1.5 71.3% home_-0.5 52.7% away_+0.5 47.3%
home_+0.5 78.4% away_-0.5 21.6% home_+1.5 92.3%
away_-1.5 7.7% home_+2.5 97.9% away_-2.5 2.1%
total_exact
exact_0 7.9% exact_1 18.0% exact_2 25.6%
exact_3 21.8% exact_4 14.3% exact_5 7.5%
exact_6 3.3% exact_7plus 1.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.4% draw 42.9% away 24.6%
total
over_0.5 68.3% under_0.5 31.7% over_1.5 31.8%
under_1.5 68.2% over_2.5 10.9% under_2.5 89.1%
btts
yes 18.9% no 81.1%
total_exact
exact_0 31.7% exact_1 36.4% exact_2 20.9%
exact_3 8.0% exact_4plus 2.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.7% draw 38.5% away 29.8%
total
over_0.5 75.1% under_0.5 24.9% over_1.5 40.4%
under_1.5 59.6% over_2.5 16.4% under_2.5 83.6%
btts
yes 25.1% no 75.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 24.8% H/D 5.5% H/A 2.1%
D/H 13.6% D/D 16.5% D/A 12.8%
A/H 1.9% A/D 4.6% A/A 18.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 69.7% under_7.5 30.3% over_8.5 57.6%
under_8.5 42.4% over_9.5 45.4% under_9.5 54.7%
over_10.5 33.9% under_10.5 66.1% over_11.5 24.2%
under_11.5 75.8% over_12.5 16.4% under_12.5 83.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.8% under_3.5 30.2% over_4.5 53.9%
under_4.5 46.1% over_5.5 38.7% under_5.5 61.3%
team_away
over_3.5 59.7% under_3.5 40.3% over_4.5 42.6%
under_4.5 57.4% over_5.5 28.0% under_5.5 72.0%
most
home 51.9% draw 10.9% away 37.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.8% away_+3.5 78.2% home_-1.5 40.9%
away_+1.5 59.1% home_-0.5 51.9% away_+0.5 48.1%
home_+0.5 62.8% away_-0.5 37.2% home_+1.5 72.7%
away_-1.5 27.3% home_+3.5 87.6% away_-3.5 12.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 65.8% under_22.5 34.2% over_24.5 53.8%
under_24.5 46.2% over_26.5 41.9% under_26.5 58.1%
over_28.5 30.8% under_28.5 69.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.1% under_10.5 25.9% over_12.5 58.5%
under_12.5 41.5% over_14.5 42.6% under_14.5 57.4%
team_away
over_10.5 56.4% under_10.5 43.6% over_12.5 38.8%
under_12.5 61.2% over_14.5 24.2% under_14.5 75.9%
most
home 60.8% draw 5.8% away 33.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.6% away_+4.5 63.4% home_-2.5 48.6%
away_+2.5 51.4% home_-0.5 60.8% away_+0.5 39.2%
home_+0.5 66.6% away_-0.5 33.4% home_+2.5 76.9%
away_-2.5 23.1% home_+4.5 85.1% away_-4.5 14.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 71.5% under_6.5 28.5% over_7.5 59.2%
under_7.5 40.8% over_8.5 46.6% under_8.5 53.4%
over_9.5 34.9% under_9.5 65.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 65.3% under_3.5 34.7% over_4.5 48.2%
under_4.5 51.8% over_5.5 32.7% under_5.5 67.3%
team_away
over_3.5 51.7% under_3.5 48.3% over_4.5 34.0%
under_4.5 66.0% over_5.5 20.3% under_5.5 79.7%
most
home 53.6% draw 12.5% away 33.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.1% away_+2.5 70.9% home_-0.5 53.6%
away_+0.5 46.4% home_+0.5 66.1% away_-0.5 33.9%
home_+2.5 85.5% away_-2.5 14.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 84.5% under_2.5 15.5% over_3.5 68.6%
under_3.5 31.4% over_4.5 50.0% under_4.5 50.0%
over_5.5 32.6% under_5.5 67.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 68.0% under_1.5 32.0% over_2.5 41.6%
under_2.5 58.4%
team_away
over_1.5 67.5% under_1.5 32.5% over_2.5 41.0%
under_2.5 59.0%
most
home 40.9% draw 19.0% away 40.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 24.0% away_+1.5 76.1% home_-0.5 40.9%
away_+0.5 59.1% home_+0.5 59.9% away_-0.5 40.1%
home_+1.5 76.7% away_-1.5 23.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 84.0% under_20.5 16.0% over_22.5 72.5%
under_22.5 27.5% over_24.5 58.6% under_24.5 41.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 83.0% under_9.5 17.0% over_11.5 65.4%
under_11.5 34.6% over_13.5 44.9% under_13.5 55.1%
team_away
over_9.5 79.4% under_9.5 20.6% over_11.5 60.1%
under_11.5 39.9% over_13.5 39.3% under_13.5 60.7%
most
home 50.3% draw 7.4% away 42.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.1% away_+3.5 70.9% home_-0.5 50.3%
away_+0.5 49.7% home_+2.5 71.4% away_-2.5 28.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 14.8% no 85.2%
home
yes 9.1% no 90.9%
away
yes 6.3% no 93.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (55560 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Konyaspor predictions · Istanbul Basaksehir predictions · Süper Lig

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Süper LigKonyasporIstanbul BasaksehirTrack record