Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Fenerbahce60.4%
Win probability · fair 1.66
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely83.0%Fair 1.20
Draw or FenerbahceVery likely81.8%Fair 1.22
Over 2.5 goalsLikely61.4%Fair 1.63
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: Fenerbahce at 60% against Çaykur Rizespor, Süper Lig, 10 October 2026. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 61% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 58%. Çaykur Rizespor are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Çaykur Rizespor or draw39.6%@ 2.53
Over 10.5 corners39.0%@ 2.56
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners59.8%@ 1.67
Both teams to score58.2%@ 1.72
Over 9.5 corners49.1%@ 2.04
Random finds
1-1 correct score9.9%@ 10.08
1-2 correct score9.9%@ 10.10
0-2 correct score9.2%@ 10.85
Model vs market
Rizespor
18.2%
Draw
21.4%
Fenerbahce
60.4%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely83.0%Fair 1.20
Over 2.5Likely61.4%Fair 1.63
BTTS · YesClose call58.2%Fair 1.72
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call59.8%Fair 1.67
Over 9.5 cornersClose call49.1%Fair 2.04
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely39.0%Fair 2.56
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot29.9%Fair 3.34
Most cornersÇaykur Rizespor47.5%Fenerbahce41.5%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely67.8%Fair 1.47
Over 24.5 shotsClose call56.1%Fair 1.78
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely44.2%Fair 2.26
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely33.0%Fair 3.03
Recent shot volume
Fenerbahce17.5 taken10.7 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.583.0%2.561.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.561.4%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Çaykur Rizespor win5.50
Draw4.66
Fenerbahce win1.66
Both teams to score1.72
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.21
Over 2.5 goals1.63
Over 3.5 goals2.55
Over 4.5 goals4.66
Çaykur Rizespor most5.50
Fenerbahce most1.66
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.35
Over 8.5 corners1.60
Over 9.5 corners1.98
Over 10.5 corners2.58
Çaykur Rizespor most2.10
Fenerbahce most2.40
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.17
Over 3.5 cards1.42
Over 4.5 cards1.91
Over 5.5 cards2.87
Çaykur Rizespor most2.46
Fenerbahce most2.46
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.32
Over 7.5 SoT1.55
Over 8.5 SoT1.91
Over 9.5 SoT2.47
Çaykur Rizespor most2.40
Fenerbahce most2.18
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.47
Over 24.5 shots1.78
Over 26.5 shots2.26
Over 28.5 shots3.03
Çaykur Rizespor most1.79
Fenerbahce most2.62
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.18
Over 22.5 fouls1.35
Over 24.5 fouls1.65
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
67.8%
Over 24.5
56.1%
Over 26.5
44.2%
Over 28.5
33.0%
Most: Çaykur Rizespor
55.9%
Most: Fenerbahce
38.2%
Çaykur Rizespor Over 13.2
48.6%
Fenerbahce Over 13.2
36.1%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
75.9%
Over 7.5
64.5%
Over 8.5
52.4%
Over 9.5
40.5%
Most: Çaykur Rizespor
41.6%
Most: Fenerbahce
46.0%
Çaykur Rizespor Over 4.2
43.7%
Fenerbahce Over 4.2
46.8%
Cards
Over 2.5
85.7%
Over 3.5
70.6%
Over 4.5
52.3%
Most: Çaykur Rizespor
40.6%
Most: Fenerbahce
40.6%
Çaykur Rizespor Over 1.8
69.1%
Fenerbahce Over 1.8
69.1%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Çaykur Rizespor clean sheet
12.3%
Fenerbahce clean sheet
33.4%
Çaykur Rizespor win to nil
7.6%
Fenerbahce win to nil
28.8%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
18.2%
draw
21.4%
away
60.4%
double_chance
1X
39.6%
12
78.6%
X2
81.8%
dnb
home
23.1%
away
76.9%
btts
yes
58.2%
no
41.8%
clean_sheet
home
12.3%
away
34.2%
win_to_nil
home
7.6%
away
29.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1
11.4%
home_by_2
4.8%
home_by_3plus
1.9%
away_by_1
22.7%
away_by_2
18.4%
away_by_3plus
19.2%
correct_score
0-0
4.7%
0-1
8.3%
0-2
9.2%
0-3
6.5%
0-4
3.4%
0-5
1.4%
1-0
4.0%
1-1
9.9%
1-2
9.9%
1-3
6.9%
1-4
3.6%
1-5
1.5%
2-0
2.4%
2-1
5.1%
2-2
5.3%
2-3
3.7%
2-4
2.0%
2-5
0.8%
3-0
0.9%
3-1
1.8%
3-2
1.9%
3-3
1.3%
3-4
0.7%
3-5
0.3%
4-0
0.2%
4-1
0.5%
4-2
0.5%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
2.1%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
9.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
95.3%
under_0.5
4.7%
over_1.5
83.0%
under_1.5
17.0%
over_2.5
61.4%
under_2.5
38.6%
over_3.5
39.1%
under_3.5
60.9%
over_4.5
21.5%
under_4.5
78.5%
over_5.5
10.2%
under_5.5
89.8%
odd_even
odd
49.0%
even
51.0%
team_home
over_0.5
65.9%
under_0.5
34.2%
over_1.5
29.2%
under_1.5
70.8%
over_2.5
9.5%
under_2.5
90.6%
team_away
over_0.5
87.7%
under_0.5
12.3%
over_1.5
62.0%
under_1.5
38.0%
over_2.5
35.0%
under_2.5
65.0%
most
home
18.2%
draw
21.4%
away
60.4%
handicap
home_-2.5
1.9%
away_+2.5
98.1%
home_-1.5
6.8%
away_+1.5
93.2%
home_-0.5
18.2%
away_+0.5
81.8%
home_+0.5
39.6%
away_-0.5
60.4%
home_+1.5
62.3%
away_-1.5
37.7%
home_+2.5
80.8%
away_-2.5
19.2%
total_exact
exact_0
4.7%
exact_1
12.4%
exact_2
21.6%
exact_3
22.3%
exact_4
17.7%
exact_5
11.2%
exact_6
5.9%
exact_7plus
4.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
28.7%
draw
37.1%
away
34.2%
total
over_0.5
77.1%
under_0.5
22.9%
over_1.5
43.4%
under_1.5
56.6%
over_2.5
18.5%
under_2.5
81.5%
btts
yes
27.1%
no
72.9%
total_exact
exact_0
22.9%
exact_1
33.7%
exact_2
24.9%
exact_3
12.2%
exact_4plus
6.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
23.7%
draw
33.9%
away
42.4%
total
over_0.5
80.9%
under_0.5
19.1%
over_1.5
49.3%
under_1.5
50.7%
over_2.5
23.1%
under_2.5
76.9%
btts
yes
30.5%
no
69.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
18.9%
H/D
6.1%
H/A
3.7%
D/H
8.8%
D/D
12.6%
D/A
15.7%
A/H
1.6%
A/D
4.5%
A/A
28.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
73.8%
under_7.5
26.2%
over_8.5
62.4%
under_8.5
37.6%
over_9.5
50.4%
under_9.5
49.6%
over_10.5
38.7%
under_10.5
61.3%
over_11.5
28.4%
under_11.5
71.6%
over_12.5
19.8%
under_12.5
80.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
69.9%
under_3.5
30.2%
over_4.5
54.0%
under_4.5
46.0%
over_5.5
38.8%
under_5.5
61.3%
team_away
over_3.5
65.9%
under_3.5
34.1%
over_4.5
49.4%
under_4.5
50.6%
over_5.5
34.3%
under_5.5
65.7%
most
home
47.6%
draw
10.7%
away
41.6%
handicap
home_-3.5
19.4%
away_+3.5
80.6%
home_-1.5
37.1%
away_+1.5
62.9%
home_-0.5
47.6%
away_+0.5
52.4%
home_+0.5
58.4%
away_-0.5
41.6%
home_+1.5
68.5%
away_-1.5
31.5%
home_+3.5
84.5%
away_-3.5
15.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
67.8%
under_22.5
32.2%
over_24.5
56.1%
under_24.5
43.9%
over_26.5
44.2%
under_26.5
55.8%
over_28.5
33.0%
under_28.5
67.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
72.7%
under_10.5
27.3%
over_12.5
56.8%
under_12.5
43.2%
over_14.5
40.8%
under_14.5
59.2%
team_away
over_10.5
61.6%
under_10.5
38.4%
over_12.5
44.1%
under_12.5
55.9%
over_14.5
28.8%
under_14.5
71.2%
most
home
55.9%
draw
5.9%
away
38.2%
handicap
home_-4.5
32.2%
away_+4.5
67.8%
home_-2.5
43.8%
away_+2.5
56.3%
home_-0.5
55.9%
away_+0.5
44.2%
home_+0.5
61.8%
away_-0.5
38.2%
home_+2.5
72.7%
away_-2.5
27.3%
home_+4.5
81.8%
away_-4.5
18.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
75.9%
under_6.5
24.1%
over_7.5
64.5%
under_7.5
35.5%
over_8.5
52.4%
under_8.5
47.6%
over_9.5
40.5%
under_9.5
59.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
61.2%
under_3.5
38.8%
over_4.5
43.7%
under_4.5
56.3%
over_5.5
28.6%
under_5.5
71.4%
team_away
over_3.5
64.1%
under_3.5
35.9%
over_4.5
46.8%
under_4.5
53.2%
over_5.5
31.5%
under_5.5
68.5%
most
home
41.6%
draw
12.4%
away
46.0%
handicap
home_-2.5
20.3%
away_+2.5
79.7%
home_-0.5
41.6%
away_+0.5
58.4%
home_+0.5
54.0%
away_-0.5
46.0%
home_+2.5
76.4%
away_-2.5
23.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
85.7%
under_2.5
14.3%
over_3.5
70.6%
under_3.5
29.4%
over_4.5
52.3%
under_4.5
47.7%
over_5.5
34.9%
under_5.5
65.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
69.1%
under_1.5
30.9%
over_2.5
43.0%
under_2.5
57.0%
team_away
over_1.5
69.1%
under_1.5
30.9%
over_2.5
43.0%
under_2.5
57.0%
most
home
40.6%
draw
18.8%
away
40.6%
handicap
home_-1.5
24.0%
away_+1.5
76.1%
home_-0.5
40.6%
away_+0.5
59.4%
home_+0.5
59.4%
away_-0.5
40.6%
home_+1.5
76.1%
away_-1.5
24.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
85.1%
under_20.5
14.9%
over_22.5
74.1%
under_22.5
25.9%
over_24.5
60.5%
under_24.5
39.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
85.1%
under_9.5
14.9%
over_11.5
68.7%
under_11.5
31.4%
over_13.5
48.6%
under_13.5
51.4%
team_away
over_9.5
78.7%
under_9.5
21.3%
over_11.5
59.2%
under_11.5
40.8%
over_13.5
38.4%
under_13.5
61.6%
most
home
53.5%
draw
7.2%
away
39.2%
handicap
home_-3.5
32.1%
away_+3.5
67.9%
home_-0.5
53.5%
away_+0.5
46.5%
home_+2.5
74.0%
away_-2.5
26.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
17.2%
no
82.8%
home
yes
11.2%
no
88.8%
away
yes
6.8%
no
93.2%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Süper Lig
Fenerbahce