Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Alanyaspor56.1%
Win probability · fair 1.78
Top signals
Alanyaspor or drawVery likely80.9%Fair 1.24
Over 1.5 goalsLikely74.3%Fair 1.35
Over 8.5 cornersClose call57.0%Fair 1.75
Model read
▾
Alanyaspor go into this Süper Lig meeting with Erzurumspor on 10 October 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 56%. No strong lean on goals (49% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Erzurumspor are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The run in: Alanyaspor arrive W2 D2 L2, Erzurumspor W1 D1 L3. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 9.5 corners46.2%@ 2.16
Draw or Erzurumspor43.8%@ 2.28
Over 10.5 corners36.2%@ 2.76
Medium risk
Under 2.5 goals51.2%@ 1.95
Not both teams to score50.5%@ 1.98
Over 2.5 goals48.8%@ 2.05
Random finds
1-0 correct score11.9%@ 8.41
1-1 correct score11.8%@ 8.45
2-0 correct score10.7%@ 9.33
Model vs market
Alanyaspor
56.1%
Draw
24.8%
Erzurumspor
19.0%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely74.3%Fair 1.35
Over 2.5Close call48.8%Fair 2.05
BTTS · YesClose call49.5%Fair 2.02
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call57.0%Fair 1.75
Over 9.5 cornersClose call46.2%Fair 2.16
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely36.2%Fair 2.76
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot27.4%Fair 3.65
Most cornersAlanyaspor57.0%Erzurumspor32.3%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely65.3%Fair 1.53
Over 24.5 shotsClose call53.3%Fair 1.88
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely41.3%Fair 2.42
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely30.3%Fair 3.31
Recent shot volume
Alanyaspor11.2 taken13.5 faced
Erzurumspor9.2 taken14.8 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.574.3%2.548.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.574.3%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Alanyaspor win1.78
Draw4.02
Erzurumspor win5.25
Both teams to score2.02
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.35
Over 2.5 goals2.05
Over 3.5 goals3.71
Alanyaspor most1.78
Erzurumspor most5.25
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.40
Over 8.5 corners1.68
Over 9.5 corners2.12
Over 10.5 corners2.81
Alanyaspor most1.75
Erzurumspor most3.09
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.26
Over 3.5 cards1.63
Over 4.5 cards2.39
Over 5.5 cards3.93
Alanyaspor most2.50
Erzurumspor most2.51
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.40
Over 7.5 SoT1.69
Over 8.5 SoT2.14
Over 9.5 SoT2.85
Alanyaspor most1.72
Erzurumspor most3.35
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.53
Over 24.5 shots1.88
Over 26.5 shots2.42
Over 28.5 shots3.31
Alanyaspor most1.55
Erzurumspor most3.36
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.19
Over 22.5 fouls1.37
Over 24.5 fouls1.69
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
65.3%
Over 24.5
53.3%
Over 26.5
41.3%
Over 28.5
30.3%
Most: Alanyaspor
64.7%
Most: Erzurumspor
29.7%
Alanyaspor Over 13.2
52.8%
Erzurumspor Over 13.2
27.8%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
71.4%
Over 7.5
59.2%
Over 8.5
46.7%
Over 9.5
35.0%
Most: Alanyaspor
58.1%
Most: Erzurumspor
29.8%
Alanyaspor Over 4.2
51.3%
Erzurumspor Over 4.2
30.7%
Cards
Over 2.5
79.6%
Over 3.5
61.3%
Over 4.5
41.9%
Most: Alanyaspor
40.1%
Most: Erzurumspor
39.9%
Alanyaspor Over 1.8
62.7%
Erzurumspor Over 1.8
62.6%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Alanyaspor clean sheet
40.1%
Erzurumspor clean sheet
17.9%
Alanyaspor win to nil
32.3%
Erzurumspor win to nil
10.1%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
56.1%
draw
24.9%
away
19.0%
double_chance
1X
81.0%
12
75.1%
X2
43.9%
dnb
home
74.7%
away
25.3%
btts
yes
49.5%
no
50.6%
clean_sheet
home
40.5%
away
17.9%
win_to_nil
home
32.7%
away
10.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1
24.5%
home_by_2
17.5%
home_by_3plus
14.2%
away_by_1
12.6%
away_by_2
4.8%
away_by_3plus
1.6%
correct_score
0-0
7.8%
0-1
6.0%
0-2
3.0%
0-3
0.9%
0-4
0.2%
0-5
0.0%
1-0
11.9%
1-1
11.8%
1-2
5.1%
1-3
1.5%
1-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-0
10.7%
2-1
9.7%
2-2
4.4%
2-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
6.2%
3-1
5.6%
3-2
2.5%
3-3
0.8%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.0%
4-0
2.7%
4-1
2.4%
4-2
1.1%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.9%
5-1
0.8%
5-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.9%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
0.0%
p
11.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
92.2%
under_0.5
7.8%
over_1.5
74.3%
under_1.5
25.7%
over_2.5
48.8%
under_2.5
51.2%
over_3.5
27.0%
under_3.5
73.0%
over_4.5
12.6%
under_4.5
87.4%
over_5.5
5.1%
under_5.5
94.9%
odd_even
odd
48.6%
even
51.4%
team_home
over_0.5
82.1%
under_0.5
17.9%
over_1.5
51.4%
under_1.5
48.6%
over_2.5
24.9%
under_2.5
75.1%
team_away
over_0.5
59.5%
under_0.5
40.5%
over_1.5
22.9%
under_1.5
77.1%
over_2.5
6.4%
under_2.5
93.6%
most
home
56.1%
draw
24.9%
away
19.0%
handicap
home_-2.5
14.2%
away_+2.5
85.8%
home_-1.5
31.7%
away_+1.5
68.3%
home_-0.5
56.1%
away_+0.5
43.9%
home_+0.5
81.0%
away_-0.5
19.0%
home_+1.5
93.5%
away_-1.5
6.5%
home_+2.5
98.4%
away_-2.5
1.6%
total_exact
exact_0
7.8%
exact_1
17.9%
exact_2
25.5%
exact_3
21.8%
exact_4
14.4%
exact_5
7.5%
exact_6
3.3%
exact_7plus
1.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
46.5%
draw
40.5%
away
13.0%
total
over_0.5
68.3%
under_0.5
31.7%
over_1.5
31.9%
under_1.5
68.1%
over_2.5
11.0%
under_2.5
89.0%
btts
yes
15.2%
no
84.9%
total_exact
exact_0
31.7%
exact_1
36.4%
exact_2
20.9%
exact_3
8.0%
exact_4plus
3.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
47.1%
draw
36.0%
away
16.9%
total
over_0.5
75.9%
under_0.5
24.2%
over_1.5
41.5%
under_1.5
58.5%
over_2.5
17.2%
under_2.5
82.9%
btts
yes
22.6%
no
77.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
41.0%
H/D
4.5%
H/A
1.1%
D/H
19.1%
D/D
14.6%
D/A
6.8%
A/H
2.1%
A/D
3.5%
A/A
7.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
71.2%
under_7.5
28.8%
over_8.5
59.4%
under_8.5
40.6%
over_9.5
47.1%
under_9.5
52.9%
over_10.5
35.6%
under_10.5
64.4%
over_11.5
25.6%
under_11.5
74.4%
over_12.5
17.5%
under_12.5
82.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
73.8%
under_3.5
26.2%
over_4.5
58.7%
under_4.5
41.3%
over_5.5
43.6%
under_5.5
56.4%
team_away
over_3.5
56.9%
under_3.5
43.1%
over_4.5
39.6%
under_4.5
60.4%
over_5.5
25.4%
under_5.5
74.6%
most
home
57.2%
draw
10.5%
away
32.3%
handicap
home_-3.5
26.1%
away_+3.5
73.9%
home_-1.5
46.2%
away_+1.5
53.8%
home_-0.5
57.2%
away_+0.5
42.8%
home_+0.5
67.7%
away_-0.5
32.3%
home_+1.5
76.9%
away_-1.5
23.1%
home_+3.5
90.1%
away_-3.5
10.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
65.3%
under_22.5
34.7%
over_24.5
53.3%
under_24.5
46.7%
over_26.5
41.3%
under_26.5
58.7%
over_28.5
30.3%
under_28.5
69.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
75.9%
under_10.5
24.1%
over_12.5
60.8%
under_12.5
39.2%
over_14.5
45.0%
under_14.5
55.0%
team_away
over_10.5
52.9%
under_10.5
47.1%
over_12.5
35.3%
under_12.5
64.7%
over_14.5
21.3%
under_14.5
78.7%
most
home
64.7%
draw
5.6%
away
29.7%
handicap
home_-4.5
40.5%
away_+4.5
59.5%
home_-2.5
52.7%
away_+2.5
47.3%
home_-0.5
64.7%
away_+0.5
35.3%
home_+0.5
70.3%
away_-0.5
29.7%
home_+2.5
80.0%
away_-2.5
20.0%
home_+4.5
87.5%
away_-4.5
12.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
71.4%
under_6.5
28.6%
over_7.5
59.2%
under_7.5
40.8%
over_8.5
46.7%
under_8.5
53.3%
over_9.5
35.0%
under_9.5
65.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
68.0%
under_3.5
32.0%
over_4.5
51.3%
under_4.5
48.7%
over_5.5
35.7%
under_5.5
64.3%
team_away
over_3.5
48.2%
under_3.5
51.8%
over_4.5
30.7%
under_4.5
69.3%
over_5.5
17.8%
under_5.5
82.2%
most
home
58.1%
draw
12.0%
away
29.8%
handicap
home_-2.5
33.2%
away_+2.5
66.8%
home_-0.5
58.1%
away_+0.5
41.9%
home_+0.5
70.2%
away_-0.5
29.8%
home_+2.5
88.0%
away_-2.5
12.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
79.6%
under_2.5
20.4%
over_3.5
61.3%
under_3.5
38.7%
over_4.5
41.9%
under_4.5
58.1%
over_5.5
25.4%
under_5.5
74.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
62.7%
under_1.5
37.3%
over_2.5
35.7%
under_2.5
64.3%
team_away
over_1.5
62.6%
under_1.5
37.4%
over_2.5
35.6%
under_2.5
64.4%
most
home
40.1%
draw
20.0%
away
39.9%
handicap
home_-1.5
22.6%
away_+1.5
77.4%
home_-0.5
40.1%
away_+0.5
59.9%
home_+0.5
60.1%
away_-0.5
39.9%
home_+1.5
77.6%
away_-1.5
22.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
84.3%
under_20.5
15.7%
over_22.5
73.1%
under_22.5
26.9%
over_24.5
59.2%
under_24.5
40.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
80.2%
under_9.5
19.8%
over_11.5
61.3%
under_11.5
38.7%
over_13.5
40.5%
under_13.5
59.5%
team_away
over_9.5
82.8%
under_9.5
17.2%
over_11.5
65.1%
under_11.5
34.8%
over_13.5
44.7%
under_13.5
55.4%
most
home
43.4%
draw
7.4%
away
49.3%
handicap
home_-3.5
23.5%
away_+3.5
76.5%
home_-0.5
43.4%
away_+0.5
56.6%
home_+2.5
65.2%
away_-2.5
34.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
8.3%
no
91.7%
home
yes
2.1%
no
98.0%
away
yes
6.3%
no
93.7%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Süper Lig
Alanyaspor
Erzurumspor