Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Academico Viseu41.2%
Win probability · fair 2.43
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsLikely73.6%Fair 1.36
Academico Viseu or drawLikely68.8%Fair 1.45
Draw or Estoril PraiaClose call58.8%Fair 1.70
Model read
▾
"41% on Academico Viseu is a measurement, not a promise." Expect a tight one: the model splits Academico Viseu and Estoril Praia almost evenly, Academico Viseu marginally on top at 41%. Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 53%. Academico Viseu are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 2.5 goals47.8%@ 2.09
Over 9.5 corners43.4%@ 2.30
Over 10.5 corners34.1%@ 2.93
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners53.5%@ 1.87
Both teams to score52.9%@ 1.89
Under 2.5 goals52.2%@ 1.92
Random finds
1-1 correct score13.1%@ 7.61
1-0 correct score9.9%@ 10.07
2-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.43
Model vs market
Academico
41.2%
Draw
27.6%
Estoril Praia
31.2%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely73.6%Fair 1.36
Over 2.5Close call47.8%Fair 2.09
BTTS · YesClose call52.9%Fair 1.89
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call53.5%Fair 1.87
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely43.4%Fair 2.30
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely34.1%Fair 2.93
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot26.1%Fair 3.83
Most cornersAcademico Viseu51.1%Estoril Praia38.2%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsClose call55.2%Fair 1.81
Over 24.5 shotsUnlikely43.0%Fair 2.33
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely31.8%Fair 3.14
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot22.3%Fair 4.49
Recent shot volume
Academico Viseu9.5 taken17.8 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.573.6%2.547.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.6%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Academico Viseu win2.43
Draw3.63
Estoril Praia win3.20
Both teams to score1.89
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.36
Over 2.5 goals2.09
Over 3.5 goals3.84
Academico Viseu most2.43
Estoril Praia most3.20
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.49
Over 8.5 corners1.80
Over 9.5 corners2.28
Over 10.5 corners3.00
Academico Viseu most1.95
Estoril Praia most2.61
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.18
Over 3.5 cards1.45
Over 4.5 cards1.99
Over 5.5 cards3.04
Academico Viseu most2.48
Estoril Praia most2.46
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.49
Over 7.5 SoT1.85
Over 8.5 SoT2.43
Over 9.5 SoT3.38
Academico Viseu most2.15
Estoril Praia most2.50
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.81
Over 24.5 shots2.33
Over 26.5 shots3.14
Over 28.5 shots4.49
Academico Viseu most1.74
Estoril Praia most2.74
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.19
Over 22.5 fouls1.34
Over 24.5 fouls1.59
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
55.2%
Over 24.5
43.0%
Over 26.5
31.8%
Over 28.5
22.3%
Most: Academico Viseu
57.5%
Most: Estoril Praia
36.5%
Academico Viseu Over 13.2
40.7%
Estoril Praia Over 13.2
26.5%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
67.2%
Over 7.5
54.0%
Over 8.5
41.1%
Over 9.5
29.6%
Most: Academico Viseu
46.6%
Most: Estoril Praia
40.0%
Academico Viseu Over 4.2
39.7%
Estoril Praia Over 4.2
35.0%
Cards
Over 2.5
84.6%
Over 3.5
68.7%
Over 4.5
50.2%
Most: Academico Viseu
40.3%
Most: Estoril Praia
40.7%
Academico Viseu Over 1.8
67.7%
Estoril Praia Over 1.8
68.0%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Academico Viseu clean sheet
30.5%
Estoril Praia clean sheet
24.7%
Academico Viseu win to nil
22.3%
Estoril Praia win to nil
16.5%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
41.2%
draw
27.6%
away
31.2%
double_chance
1X
68.8%
12
72.4%
X2
58.8%
dnb
home
56.9%
away
43.1%
btts
yes
52.9%
no
47.1%
clean_sheet
home
30.6%
away
24.7%
win_to_nil
home
22.4%
away
16.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1
21.5%
home_by_2
12.4%
home_by_3plus
7.4%
away_by_1
18.1%
away_by_2
8.9%
away_by_3plus
4.2%
correct_score
0-0
8.2%
0-1
8.3%
0-2
5.3%
0-3
2.1%
0-4
0.6%
0-5
0.2%
1-0
9.9%
1-1
13.1%
1-2
7.4%
1-3
2.9%
1-4
0.9%
1-5
0.2%
2-0
7.4%
2-1
8.8%
2-2
5.2%
2-3
2.1%
2-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
3.4%
3-1
4.1%
3-2
2.4%
3-3
1.0%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
1.2%
4-1
1.4%
4-2
0.9%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.3%
5-1
0.4%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.5%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
13.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
91.8%
under_0.5
8.2%
over_1.5
73.6%
under_1.5
26.4%
over_2.5
47.8%
under_2.5
52.2%
over_3.5
26.1%
under_3.5
73.9%
over_4.5
12.0%
under_4.5
88.0%
over_5.5
4.8%
under_5.5
95.2%
odd_even
odd
48.5%
even
51.5%
team_home
over_0.5
75.3%
under_0.5
24.7%
over_1.5
40.8%
under_1.5
59.2%
over_2.5
16.6%
under_2.5
83.4%
team_away
over_0.5
69.5%
under_0.5
30.6%
over_1.5
33.2%
under_1.5
66.8%
over_2.5
11.7%
under_2.5
88.3%
most
home
41.2%
draw
27.6%
away
31.2%
handicap
home_-2.5
7.4%
away_+2.5
92.7%
home_-1.5
19.8%
away_+1.5
80.2%
home_-0.5
41.2%
away_+0.5
58.8%
home_+0.5
68.8%
away_-0.5
31.2%
home_+1.5
86.9%
away_-1.5
13.1%
home_+2.5
95.8%
away_-2.5
4.2%
total_exact
exact_0
8.2%
exact_1
18.3%
exact_2
25.8%
exact_3
21.7%
exact_4
14.0%
exact_5
7.2%
exact_6
3.1%
exact_7plus
1.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
27.2%
draw
41.0%
away
31.8%
total
over_0.5
71.3%
under_0.5
28.7%
over_1.5
35.4%
under_1.5
64.6%
over_2.5
13.1%
under_2.5
86.9%
btts
yes
21.5%
no
78.5%
total_exact
exact_0
28.7%
exact_1
35.8%
exact_2
22.4%
exact_3
9.3%
exact_4plus
3.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
35.6%
draw
37.9%
away
26.5%
total
over_0.5
75.7%
under_0.5
24.3%
over_1.5
41.4%
under_1.5
58.6%
over_2.5
17.1%
under_2.5
83.0%
btts
yes
25.5%
no
74.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
21.4%
H/D
4.3%
H/A
1.5%
D/H
14.6%
D/D
15.5%
D/A
10.9%
A/H
2.8%
A/D
6.2%
A/A
22.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
67.0%
under_7.5
33.0%
over_8.5
55.4%
under_8.5
44.6%
over_9.5
43.9%
under_9.5
56.1%
over_10.5
33.4%
under_10.5
66.6%
over_11.5
24.3%
under_11.5
75.7%
over_12.5
17.1%
under_12.5
82.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
66.9%
under_3.5
33.1%
over_4.5
51.7%
under_4.5
48.3%
over_5.5
37.6%
under_5.5
62.4%
team_away
over_3.5
57.8%
under_3.5
42.2%
over_4.5
41.8%
under_4.5
58.2%
over_5.5
28.2%
under_5.5
71.8%
most
home
51.3%
draw
10.4%
away
38.3%
handicap
home_-3.5
22.6%
away_+3.5
77.4%
home_-1.5
40.8%
away_+1.5
59.2%
home_-0.5
51.3%
away_+0.5
48.7%
home_+0.5
61.7%
away_-0.5
38.3%
home_+1.5
71.3%
away_-1.5
28.7%
home_+3.5
86.1%
away_-3.5
13.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
55.2%
under_22.5
44.8%
over_24.5
43.0%
under_24.5
57.0%
over_26.5
31.8%
under_26.5
68.2%
over_28.5
22.3%
under_28.5
77.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
65.3%
under_10.5
34.7%
over_12.5
48.7%
under_12.5
51.3%
over_14.5
33.3%
under_14.5
66.7%
team_away
over_10.5
50.8%
under_10.5
49.2%
over_12.5
33.7%
under_12.5
66.3%
over_14.5
20.4%
under_14.5
79.6%
most
home
57.5%
draw
6.0%
away
36.5%
handicap
home_-4.5
33.1%
away_+4.5
66.9%
home_-2.5
45.0%
away_+2.5
55.0%
home_-0.5
57.5%
away_+0.5
42.5%
home_+0.5
63.5%
away_-0.5
36.5%
home_+2.5
74.5%
away_-2.5
25.5%
home_+4.5
83.4%
away_-4.5
16.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
67.2%
under_6.5
32.8%
over_7.5
54.1%
under_7.5
46.0%
over_8.5
41.1%
under_8.5
58.9%
over_9.5
29.5%
under_9.5
70.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
57.7%
under_3.5
42.3%
over_4.5
39.7%
under_4.5
60.3%
over_5.5
24.8%
under_5.5
75.2%
team_away
over_3.5
53.1%
under_3.5
46.9%
over_4.5
35.0%
under_4.5
65.0%
over_5.5
20.9%
under_5.5
79.1%
most
home
46.6%
draw
13.4%
away
40.0%
handicap
home_-2.5
22.5%
away_+2.5
77.6%
home_-0.5
46.6%
away_+0.5
53.4%
home_+0.5
60.0%
away_-0.5
40.0%
home_+2.5
82.3%
away_-2.5
17.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
84.6%
under_2.5
15.4%
over_3.5
68.8%
under_3.5
31.3%
over_4.5
50.2%
under_4.5
49.8%
over_5.5
32.9%
under_5.5
67.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
67.7%
under_1.5
32.3%
over_2.5
41.3%
under_2.5
58.7%
team_away
over_1.5
68.0%
under_1.5
32.0%
over_2.5
41.7%
under_2.5
58.4%
most
home
40.3%
draw
19.0%
away
40.7%
handicap
home_-1.5
23.5%
away_+1.5
76.5%
home_-0.5
40.3%
away_+0.5
59.7%
home_+0.5
59.3%
away_-0.5
40.7%
home_+1.5
76.1%
away_-1.5
23.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
84.2%
under_20.5
15.8%
over_22.5
74.4%
under_22.5
25.6%
over_24.5
62.7%
under_24.5
37.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
80.6%
under_9.5
19.4%
over_11.5
64.6%
under_11.5
35.4%
over_13.5
46.8%
under_13.5
53.2%
team_away
over_9.5
80.3%
under_9.5
19.7%
over_11.5
64.1%
under_11.5
35.9%
over_13.5
46.3%
under_13.5
53.8%
most
home
47.2%
draw
6.4%
away
46.4%
handicap
home_-3.5
29.0%
away_+3.5
71.0%
home_-0.5
47.2%
away_+0.5
52.8%
home_+2.5
66.0%
away_-2.5
34.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
17.5%
no
82.5%
home
yes
5.5%
no
94.5%
away
yes
12.7%
no
87.3%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Primeira Liga
Academico Viseu