Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Hoffenheim66.1%
Win probability · fair 1.51
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely85.5%Fair 1.17
Hoffenheim or drawVery likely83.1%Fair 1.20
Over 2.5 goalsLikely65.6%Fair 1.52
Model read
▾
On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Hoffenheim heavy favourites at 66% when Hoffenheim meet Hamburg in the Bundesliga on 9 October 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Everything in the shot data points to goals, 66% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 61%. 2) History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Hoffenheim, 0 draws and 2 for Hamburg at 3.2 goals per match. 3) Adam Hlozek drives the home shot volume, 1.2 on target per 90. The run in: Hoffenheim arrive W2 D1 L3, Hamburg W2 D1 L3. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners42.7%@ 2.34
Draw or Hamburg33.9%@ 2.95
Over 11.5 corners33.2%@ 3.01
Medium risk
Both teams to score61.1%@ 1.64
Over 9.5 corners53.1%@ 1.88
Random finds
2-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.28
1-1 correct score9.1%@ 10.94
2-0 correct score8.6%@ 11.68
Model vs market
Hoffenheim
66.1%
Draw
16.9%
Hamburg
16.9%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely85.5%Fair 1.17
Over 2.5Likely65.6%Fair 1.52
BTTS · YesLikely61.1%Fair 1.64
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.7%Fair 1.57
Over 9.5 cornersClose call53.1%Fair 1.88
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely42.7%Fair 2.34
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely33.2%Fair 3.01
Most cornersHoffenheim60.7%Hamburg29.2%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely74.3%Fair 1.35
Over 24.5 shotsLikely63.2%Fair 1.58
Over 26.5 shotsClose call51.3%Fair 1.95
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely39.4%Fair 2.54
Recent shot volume
Hoffenheim16.8 taken13.2 faced
Hamburg11.3 taken15.8 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Hoffenheim (3 games)
7.3 / 10.7
Hamburg (3 games)
2.0 / 7.0
Totals line guide
0.5·1.585.5%2.565.6%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.565.6%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
HoffenheimWLLLW
HamburgWDLLL
Last 5 meetings: Hoffenheim 3 · 0 draws · Hamburg 2 · 3.2 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Adam HlozekHoffenheim · key player
To score25.5%3.92
1+ on target54.9%1.82
2+ shots59.4%1.68
Shots/90 2.99SoT/90 1.19Goals/90 0.44
Terem Igobor MoffiHamburg · key player
To score14.5%6.90
1+ on target52.2%1.92
2+ shots37.9%2.64
Shots/90 3.19SoT/90 1.79Goals/90 0.38
Fisnik AsllaniHoffenheim · in form
To score24.9%4.02
1+ on target56.4%1.77
2+ shots64.6%1.55
Shots/90 2.84SoT/90 1.07Goals/90 0.37
Yussuf PoulsenHamburg · in form
To score10.3%9.71
1+ on target25.7%3.89
2+ shots14.7%6.80
Shots/90 3.23SoT/90 1.42Goals/90 0.52
Max MoerstedtHoffenheim · in form
To score5.7%17.54
1+ on target25.0%4.00
2+ shots11.3%8.85
Shots/90 2.05SoT/90 1.03Goals/90 0.21
Rayan PhilippeHamburg · in form
To score14.7%6.80
1+ on target43.1%2.32
2+ shots37.8%2.65
Shots/90 2.82SoT/90 1.21Goals/90 0.34
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Hoffenheim win1.62
Draw4.91
Hamburg win5.60
Both teams to score1.64
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.17
Over 2.5 goals1.53
Over 3.5 goals2.29
Over 4.5 goals3.97
Hoffenheim most1.62
Hamburg most5.60
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.29
Over 8.5 corners1.50
Over 9.5 corners1.83
Over 10.5 corners2.32
Hoffenheim most1.64
Hamburg most3.42
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.31
Over 3.5 cards1.76
Over 4.5 cards2.68
Over 5.5 cards4.62
Hoffenheim most2.19
Hamburg most2.95
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.18
Over 7.5 SoT1.31
Over 8.5 SoT1.52
Over 9.5 SoT1.82
Hoffenheim most1.61
Hamburg most3.66
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.35
Over 24.5 shots1.58
Over 26.5 shots1.95
Over 28.5 shots2.54
Hoffenheim most1.51
Hamburg most3.54
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.60
Over 22.5 fouls1.97
Over 24.5 fouls2.54
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
74.3%
Over 24.5
63.2%
Over 26.5
51.3%
Over 28.5
39.4%
Most: Hoffenheim
66.4%
Most: Hamburg
28.2%
Hoffenheim Over 13.2
61.0%
Hamburg Over 13.2
33.1%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
85.0%
Over 7.5
76.3%
Over 8.5
66.0%
Over 9.5
54.8%
Most: Hoffenheim
62.3%
Most: Hamburg
27.3%
Hoffenheim Over 4.2
66.9%
Hamburg Over 4.2
41.8%
Cards
Over 2.5
76.3%
Over 3.5
56.9%
Over 4.5
37.3%
Most: Hoffenheim
45.7%
Most: Hamburg
33.9%
Hoffenheim Over 1.8
63.5%
Hamburg Over 1.8
55.2%
Hoffenheim: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Adam Hlozek
2.99
1.19
0.44
54.9%
59.4%
25.5%
Fisnik Asllani
2.84
1.07
0.37
56.4%
64.6%
24.9%
Max Moerstedt
2.05
1.03
0.21
25.0%
11.3%
5.7%
Andrej Kramaric
2.34
1.01
0.39
55.4%
55.7%
26.8%
Tim Lemperle
2.48
0.94
0.37
51.4%
56.7%
24.7%
Hamburg: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Terem Igobor Moffi
3.19
1.79
0.38
52.2%
37.9%
14.5%
Yussuf Poulsen
3.23
1.42
0.52
25.7%
14.7%
10.3%
Rayan Philippe
2.82
1.21
0.34
43.1%
37.8%
14.7%
Fábio Vieira
2.41
0.87
0.26
51.4%
59.4%
19.4%
Albert Grønbæk
1.71
0.69
0.11
32.3%
25.2%
6.0%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Hoffenheim clean sheet
31.2%
Hamburg clean sheet
10.7%
Hoffenheim win to nil
27.3%
Hamburg win to nil
6.8%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
61.8%
draw
20.4%
away
17.9%
double_chance
1X
82.1%
12
79.6%
X2
38.3%
dnb
home
77.6%
away
22.4%
btts
yes
61.1%
no
38.9%
clean_sheet
home
32.0%
away
10.7%
win_to_nil
home
28.2%
away
6.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1
22.1%
home_by_2
18.6%
home_by_3plus
21.1%
away_by_1
11.0%
away_by_2
4.8%
away_by_3plus
2.0%
correct_score
0-0
3.9%
0-1
3.5%
0-2
2.2%
0-3
0.8%
0-4
0.2%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
7.2%
1-1
9.1%
1-2
5.0%
1-3
1.9%
1-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-0
8.6%
2-1
9.7%
2-2
5.5%
2-3
2.1%
2-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
7.3%
3-2
4.1%
3-3
1.6%
3-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
3.6%
4-1
4.1%
4-2
2.3%
4-3
0.9%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
1.6%
5-1
1.8%
5-2
1.0%
5-3
0.4%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
2.8%
likeliest_score
h
200.0%
a
100.0%
p
9.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
96.2%
under_0.5
3.9%
over_1.5
85.5%
under_1.5
14.5%
over_2.5
65.6%
under_2.5
34.4%
over_3.5
43.7%
under_3.5
56.3%
over_4.5
25.2%
under_4.5
74.8%
over_5.5
12.7%
under_5.5
87.3%
odd_even
odd
49.1%
even
50.9%
team_home
over_0.5
89.3%
under_0.5
10.7%
over_1.5
65.5%
under_1.5
34.6%
over_2.5
38.8%
under_2.5
61.3%
team_away
over_0.5
68.0%
under_0.5
32.0%
over_1.5
31.5%
under_1.5
68.5%
over_2.5
10.8%
under_2.5
89.2%
most
home
61.8%
draw
20.4%
away
17.9%
handicap
home_-2.5
21.1%
away_+2.5
78.9%
home_-1.5
39.7%
away_+1.5
60.3%
home_-0.5
61.8%
away_+0.5
38.3%
home_+0.5
82.1%
away_-0.5
17.9%
home_+1.5
93.2%
away_-1.5
6.9%
home_+2.5
98.0%
away_-2.5
2.0%
total_exact
exact_0
3.9%
exact_1
10.7%
exact_2
19.9%
exact_3
21.9%
exact_4
18.5%
exact_5
12.5%
exact_6
7.0%
exact_7plus
5.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
58.2%
draw
29.0%
away
12.8%
total
over_0.5
82.8%
under_0.5
17.2%
over_1.5
52.5%
under_1.5
47.5%
over_2.5
25.8%
under_2.5
74.2%
btts
yes
26.5%
no
73.5%
total_exact
exact_0
17.2%
exact_1
30.3%
exact_2
26.6%
exact_3
15.6%
exact_4plus
10.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
43.6%
draw
33.3%
away
23.1%
total
over_0.5
81.5%
under_0.5
18.5%
over_1.5
50.3%
under_1.5
49.7%
over_2.5
24.0%
under_2.5
76.0%
btts
yes
31.1%
no
68.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
50.1%
H/D
6.0%
H/A
2.1%
D/H
12.6%
D/D
9.7%
D/A
6.7%
A/H
1.9%
A/D
3.0%
A/A
7.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
77.3%
under_7.5
22.7%
over_8.5
66.6%
under_8.5
33.4%
over_9.5
54.8%
under_9.5
45.2%
over_10.5
43.0%
under_10.5
57.0%
over_11.5
32.2%
under_11.5
67.8%
over_12.5
23.0%
under_12.5
77.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
79.5%
under_3.5
20.5%
over_4.5
65.9%
under_4.5
34.1%
over_5.5
51.1%
under_5.5
48.9%
team_away
over_3.5
59.3%
under_3.5
40.7%
over_4.5
41.9%
under_4.5
58.1%
over_5.5
27.2%
under_5.5
72.8%
most
home
60.8%
draw
9.9%
away
29.3%
handicap
home_-3.5
29.8%
away_+3.5
70.2%
home_-1.5
50.2%
away_+1.5
49.8%
home_-0.5
60.8%
away_+0.5
39.2%
home_+0.5
70.7%
away_-0.5
29.3%
home_+1.5
79.3%
away_-1.5
20.7%
home_+3.5
91.2%
away_-3.5
8.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
74.3%
under_22.5
25.7%
over_24.5
63.2%
under_24.5
36.8%
over_26.5
51.3%
under_26.5
48.7%
over_28.5
39.4%
under_28.5
60.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
82.1%
under_10.5
17.9%
over_12.5
68.6%
under_12.5
31.4%
over_14.5
53.2%
under_14.5
46.8%
team_away
over_10.5
59.1%
under_10.5
40.9%
over_12.5
41.2%
under_12.5
58.8%
over_14.5
25.9%
under_14.5
74.1%
most
home
66.4%
draw
5.4%
away
28.2%
handicap
home_-4.5
42.6%
away_+4.5
57.4%
home_-2.5
54.8%
away_+2.5
45.2%
home_-0.5
66.4%
away_+0.5
33.6%
home_+0.5
71.8%
away_-0.5
28.2%
home_+2.5
81.1%
away_-2.5
18.9%
home_+4.5
88.2%
away_-4.5
11.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
85.0%
under_6.5
15.0%
over_7.5
76.3%
under_7.5
23.7%
over_8.5
66.0%
under_8.5
34.0%
over_9.5
54.8%
under_9.5
45.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
80.4%
under_3.5
19.6%
over_4.5
66.9%
under_4.5
33.1%
over_5.5
52.1%
under_5.5
47.9%
team_away
over_3.5
59.4%
under_3.5
40.6%
over_4.5
41.8%
under_4.5
58.2%
over_5.5
26.9%
under_5.5
73.1%
most
home
62.3%
draw
10.4%
away
27.3%
handicap
home_-2.5
39.7%
away_+2.5
60.3%
home_-0.5
62.3%
away_+0.5
37.7%
home_+0.5
72.7%
away_-0.5
27.3%
home_+2.5
88.2%
away_-2.5
11.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
76.3%
under_2.5
23.7%
over_3.5
56.9%
under_3.5
43.1%
over_4.5
37.3%
under_4.5
62.7%
over_5.5
21.7%
under_5.5
78.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
63.5%
under_1.5
36.5%
over_2.5
36.6%
under_2.5
63.4%
team_away
over_1.5
55.2%
under_1.5
44.8%
over_2.5
28.3%
under_2.5
71.7%
most
home
45.7%
draw
20.5%
away
33.9%
handicap
home_-1.5
26.6%
away_+1.5
73.4%
home_-0.5
45.7%
away_+0.5
54.3%
home_+0.5
66.1%
away_-0.5
33.9%
home_+1.5
82.5%
away_-1.5
17.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
62.6%
under_20.5
37.4%
over_22.5
50.8%
under_22.5
49.2%
over_24.5
39.3%
under_24.5
60.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
69.7%
under_9.5
30.3%
over_11.5
53.8%
under_11.5
46.2%
over_13.5
38.5%
under_13.5
61.6%
team_away
over_9.5
56.1%
under_9.5
43.9%
over_11.5
38.9%
under_11.5
61.1%
over_13.5
24.7%
under_13.5
75.3%
most
home
57.4%
draw
5.9%
away
36.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
39.5%
away_+3.5
60.5%
home_-0.5
57.4%
away_+0.5
42.6%
home_+2.5
74.0%
away_-2.5
26.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
25.7%
no
74.3%
home
yes
11.4%
no
88.6%
away
yes
16.2%
no
83.9%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Bundesliga
Hoffenheim
Hamburg