Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Manchester United56.7%
Win probability · fair 1.76
Top signals
Manchester United or drawVery likely81.0%Fair 1.23
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely79.6%Fair 1.26
Over 8.5 cornersLikely61.3%Fair 1.63
Model read
▾
Few Premier League fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Manchester United carry a 57% win probability against Tottenham on 10 October 2026. Totals sit close to the fence: 56% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. The run in: Manchester United arrive W2 D2 L2, Tottenham W1 D2 L3. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Manchester United, 2 draws and 2 for Tottenham, averaging 2.8 goals a game. For shots markets, Benjamin Sesko is the obvious watch at 1.5 on target per 90 in recent data. Team news worth noting: Manchester United have Darlow a doubt, Bayindir ruled out, Heaton ruled out, De Ligt ruled out. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Draw or Tottenham43.3%@ 2.31
Over 10.5 corners41.5%@ 2.41
Over 11.5 corners32.7%@ 3.06
Medium risk
Over 2.5 goals56.2%@ 1.78
Both teams to score55.8%@ 1.79
Over 9.5 corners51.2%@ 1.95
Random finds
1-1 correct score11.1%@ 9.03
2-1 correct score9.9%@ 10.12
1-0 correct score9.5%@ 10.58
Model vs market
Man Utd
56.7%
Draw
24.3%
Tottenham
19.0%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely79.6%Fair 1.26
Over 2.5Close call56.2%Fair 1.78
BTTS · YesClose call55.8%Fair 1.79
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely61.3%Fair 1.63
Over 9.5 cornersClose call51.2%Fair 1.95
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely41.5%Fair 2.41
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely32.7%Fair 3.06
Most cornersManchester United50.5%Tottenham39.1%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely65.7%Fair 1.52
Over 24.5 shotsClose call54.2%Fair 1.84
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely42.7%Fair 2.34
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely32.0%Fair 3.13
Recent shot volume
Manchester United20.7 taken11.0 faced
Tottenham15.3 taken14.0 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Manchester United (5 games)
9.2 / 13.6
Tottenham (5 games)
6.2 / 8.2
Totals line guide
0.5·1.579.6%2.556.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.579.6%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
Manchester UnitedLWDLD
TottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 meetings: Manchester United 1 · 2 draws · Tottenham 2 · 2.8 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Benjamin SeskoManchester United · key player
To score32.2%3.11
1+ on target63.7%1.57
2+ shots60.2%1.66
Shots/90 2.98SoT/90 1.49Goals/90 0.57
Omar MarmoushTottenham · key player
To score32.2%3.11
1+ on target63.2%1.58
2+ shots74.9%1.34
Shots/90 3.87SoT/90 1.44Goals/90 0.56
Matheus CunhaManchester United · in form
To score30.6%3.27
1+ on target68.0%1.47
2+ shots80.3%1.25
Shots/90 3.47SoT/90 1.31Goals/90 0.42
SávioTottenham · in form
To score3.8%26.32
1+ on target42.2%2.37
2+ shots41.4%2.42
Shots/90 2.58SoT/90 1Goals/90 0.07
Marcus RashfordManchester United · in form
To score15.8%6.33
1+ on target43.3%2.31
2+ shots47.0%2.13
Shots/90 3.4SoT/90 1.22Goals/90 0.37
Dominic SolankeTottenham · in form
To score22.3%4.48
1+ on target50.4%1.98
2+ shots51.4%1.95
Shots/90 2.19SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.32
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Manchester United win1.79
Draw4.26
Tottenham win4.86
Both teams to score1.79
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.26
Over 2.5 goals1.78
Over 3.5 goals2.96
Manchester United most1.79
Tottenham most4.86
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.32
Over 8.5 corners1.54
Over 9.5 corners1.88
Over 10.5 corners2.39
Manchester United most1.97
Tottenham most2.55
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.32
Over 3.5 cards1.78
Over 4.5 cards2.73
Over 5.5 cards4.73
Manchester United most3.54
Tottenham most1.93
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.34
Over 7.5 SoT1.58
Over 8.5 SoT1.94
Over 9.5 SoT2.48
Manchester United most1.70
Tottenham most3.35
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.52
Over 24.5 shots1.84
Over 26.5 shots2.34
Over 28.5 shots3.13
Manchester United most1.52
Tottenham most3.43
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.59
Over 22.5 fouls2.14
Over 24.5 fouls3.16
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
DarlowManchester UnitedDoubtful75% to play
BayindirManchester UnitedOut0% to play
HeatonManchester UnitedOut0% to play
De LigtManchester UnitedOut0% to play
FredricsonManchester UnitedOut0% to play
RashfordManchester UnitedDoubtful75% to play
AmadManchester UnitedOut0% to play
MainooManchester UnitedDoubtful75% to play
UgarteManchester UnitedOut0% to play
CollyerManchester UnitedOut0% to play
ŠeškoManchester UnitedDoubtful75% to play
ObiManchester UnitedOut0% to play
VicarioTottenhamOut0% to play
Pedro PorroTottenhamDoubtful75% to play
What the absences carry
Share of the squad’s total expected goal involvement (xG + xA) this season. It is a measure of what the team is missing, not a prediction of the result: we do not publish a re-run win probability, because estimating who replaces him is a model change that has to be validated first.
RicharlisonTottenham8.6%18.1 xG+xA in 2,444 min
Mikey MooreTottenham1.5%3.1 xG+xA in 650 min
Mykhailo MudrykTottenhamnot enough minutes to weigh0.8 xG+xA in 80 min
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
65.7%
Over 24.5
54.2%
Over 26.5
42.7%
Over 28.5
32.0%
Most: Manchester United
65.6%
Most: Tottenham
29.2%
Manchester United Over 13.2
54.5%
Tottenham Over 13.2
28.2%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
74.6%
Over 7.5
63.4%
Over 8.5
51.6%
Over 9.5
40.3%
Most: Manchester United
58.9%
Most: Tottenham
29.8%
Manchester United Over 4.2
54.9%
Tottenham Over 4.2
33.7%
Cards
Over 2.5
75.9%
Over 3.5
56.2%
Over 4.5
36.7%
Most: Manchester United
28.2%
Most: Tottenham
51.9%
Manchester United Over 1.8
50.0%
Tottenham Over 1.8
66.9%
Manchester United: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Benjamin Sesko
2.98
1.49
0.57
63.7%
60.2%
32.2%
Matheus Cunha
3.47
1.31
0.42
68.0%
80.3%
30.6%
Marcus Rashford
3.4
1.22
0.37
43.3%
47.0%
15.8%
Bryan Mbeumo
2.48
1.03
0.43
62.6%
68.4%
33.6%
Bruno Fernandes
2.69
0.81
0.29
54.0%
72.9%
24.3%
Tottenham: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Omar Marmoush
3.87
1.44
0.56
63.2%
74.9%
32.2%
Sávio
2.58
1
0.07
42.2%
41.4%
3.8%
Dominic Solanke
2.19
0.89
0.32
50.4%
51.4%
22.3%
James Maddison
2.04
0.78
0.48
33.4%
28.8%
22.1%
Mathys Tel
2.46
0.71
0.2
32.3%
39.2%
10.4%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Manchester United clean sheet
34.3%
Tottenham clean sheet
15.3%
Manchester United win to nil
28.4%
Tottenham win to nil
9.5%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
56.0%
draw
23.5%
away
20.6%
double_chance
1X
79.4%
12
76.5%
X2
44.0%
dnb
home
73.1%
away
26.9%
btts
yes
55.8%
no
44.2%
clean_sheet
home
34.7%
away
15.4%
win_to_nil
home
28.9%
away
9.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1
23.2%
home_by_2
17.3%
home_by_3plus
15.5%
away_by_1
12.9%
away_by_2
5.5%
away_by_3plus
2.2%
correct_score
0-0
5.9%
0-1
5.1%
0-2
3.0%
0-3
1.1%
0-4
0.3%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
9.5%
1-1
11.1%
1-2
5.6%
1-3
2.0%
1-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-0
9.4%
2-1
9.9%
2-2
5.2%
2-3
1.8%
2-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
5.9%
3-1
6.2%
3-2
3.3%
3-3
1.2%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
2.8%
4-1
2.9%
4-2
1.5%
4-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
1.0%
5-1
1.1%
5-2
0.6%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
1.4%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
11.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
94.1%
under_0.5
5.9%
over_1.5
79.6%
under_1.5
20.4%
over_2.5
56.2%
under_2.5
43.8%
over_3.5
33.8%
under_3.5
66.2%
over_4.5
17.4%
under_4.5
82.6%
over_5.5
7.8%
under_5.5
92.2%
odd_even
odd
48.8%
even
51.2%
team_home
over_0.5
84.7%
under_0.5
15.4%
over_1.5
55.9%
under_1.5
44.1%
over_2.5
29.0%
under_2.5
71.0%
team_away
over_0.5
65.3%
under_0.5
34.7%
over_1.5
28.6%
under_1.5
71.4%
over_2.5
9.2%
under_2.5
90.9%
most
home
56.0%
draw
23.5%
away
20.6%
handicap
home_-2.5
15.5%
away_+2.5
84.5%
home_-1.5
32.8%
away_+1.5
67.2%
home_-0.5
56.0%
away_+0.5
44.0%
home_+0.5
79.4%
away_-0.5
20.6%
home_+1.5
92.3%
away_-1.5
7.7%
home_+2.5
97.8%
away_-2.5
2.2%
total_exact
exact_0
5.9%
exact_1
14.6%
exact_2
23.4%
exact_3
22.4%
exact_4
16.4%
exact_5
9.6%
exact_6
4.7%
exact_7plus
3.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
45.4%
draw
40.5%
away
14.1%
total
over_0.5
68.8%
under_0.5
31.2%
over_1.5
32.5%
under_1.5
67.5%
over_2.5
11.3%
under_2.5
88.7%
btts
yes
16.1%
no
84.0%
total_exact
exact_0
31.2%
exact_1
36.3%
exact_2
21.2%
exact_3
8.2%
exact_4plus
3.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
44.6%
draw
31.5%
away
23.9%
total
over_0.5
84.2%
under_0.5
15.8%
over_1.5
55.0%
under_1.5
45.0%
over_2.5
28.1%
under_2.5
71.9%
btts
yes
34.8%
no
65.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
37.5%
H/D
5.7%
H/A
2.3%
D/H
18.1%
D/D
12.8%
D/A
9.7%
A/H
2.4%
A/D
3.3%
A/A
8.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
75.6%
under_7.5
24.4%
over_8.5
64.8%
under_8.5
35.2%
over_9.5
53.2%
under_9.5
46.8%
over_10.5
41.8%
under_10.5
58.2%
over_11.5
31.4%
under_11.5
68.6%
over_12.5
22.6%
under_12.5
77.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
72.2%
under_3.5
27.8%
over_4.5
57.4%
under_4.5
42.6%
over_5.5
42.8%
under_5.5
57.2%
team_away
over_3.5
64.8%
under_3.5
35.2%
over_4.5
48.7%
under_4.5
51.3%
over_5.5
34.2%
under_5.5
65.8%
most
home
50.7%
draw
10.1%
away
39.3%
handicap
home_-3.5
22.9%
away_+3.5
77.1%
home_-1.5
40.6%
away_+1.5
59.4%
home_-0.5
50.7%
away_+0.5
49.3%
home_+0.5
60.7%
away_-0.5
39.3%
home_+1.5
70.1%
away_-1.5
29.9%
home_+3.5
84.9%
away_-3.5
15.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
65.7%
under_22.5
34.3%
over_24.5
54.2%
under_24.5
45.8%
over_26.5
42.7%
under_26.5
57.3%
over_28.5
32.0%
under_28.5
68.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
76.2%
under_10.5
23.8%
over_12.5
62.0%
under_12.5
38.0%
over_14.5
47.0%
under_14.5
53.0%
team_away
over_10.5
52.1%
under_10.5
47.9%
over_12.5
35.4%
under_12.5
64.6%
over_14.5
22.0%
under_14.5
78.0%
most
home
65.6%
draw
5.3%
away
29.2%
handicap
home_-4.5
42.5%
away_+4.5
57.5%
home_-2.5
54.2%
away_+2.5
45.8%
home_-0.5
65.6%
away_+0.5
34.4%
home_+0.5
70.8%
away_-0.5
29.2%
home_+2.5
80.0%
away_-2.5
20.0%
home_+4.5
87.2%
away_-4.5
12.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
74.6%
under_6.5
25.4%
over_7.5
63.4%
under_7.5
36.6%
over_8.5
51.6%
under_8.5
48.4%
over_9.5
40.3%
under_9.5
59.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
70.4%
under_3.5
29.6%
over_4.5
54.9%
under_4.5
45.1%
over_5.5
40.0%
under_5.5
60.0%
team_away
over_3.5
50.7%
under_3.5
49.3%
over_4.5
33.7%
under_4.5
66.3%
over_5.5
20.6%
under_5.5
79.4%
most
home
58.9%
draw
11.3%
away
29.8%
handicap
home_-2.5
35.3%
away_+2.5
64.7%
home_-0.5
58.9%
away_+0.5
41.1%
home_+0.5
70.2%
away_-0.5
29.8%
home_+2.5
87.2%
away_-2.5
12.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
75.9%
under_2.5
24.2%
over_3.5
56.2%
under_3.5
43.8%
over_4.5
36.7%
under_4.5
63.3%
over_5.5
21.1%
under_5.5
78.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
50.0%
under_1.5
50.0%
over_2.5
23.7%
under_2.5
76.3%
team_away
over_1.5
66.9%
under_1.5
33.1%
over_2.5
40.3%
under_2.5
59.7%
most
home
28.2%
draw
19.9%
away
51.9%
handicap
home_-1.5
13.6%
away_+1.5
86.4%
home_-0.5
28.2%
away_+0.5
71.8%
home_+0.5
48.1%
away_-0.5
51.9%
home_+1.5
68.2%
away_-1.5
31.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
62.8%
under_20.5
37.2%
over_22.5
46.7%
under_22.5
53.3%
over_24.5
31.6%
under_24.5
68.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
61.7%
under_9.5
38.3%
over_11.5
38.6%
under_11.5
61.4%
over_13.5
20.0%
under_13.5
80.0%
team_away
over_9.5
70.9%
under_9.5
29.1%
over_11.5
48.9%
under_11.5
51.1%
over_13.5
28.4%
under_13.5
71.6%
most
home
38.8%
draw
8.0%
away
53.2%
handicap
home_-3.5
18.5%
away_+3.5
81.6%
home_-0.5
38.8%
away_+0.5
61.2%
home_+2.5
62.8%
away_-2.5
37.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
15.2%
no
84.8%
home
yes
5.0%
no
95.0%
away
yes
10.7%
no
89.3%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Premier League
Manchester United
Tottenham