Ajax vs Excelsior: model prediction
Eredivisie
AjaxDWLWW
ExcelsiorLWWDL
Over 1.5 goals
Ajax or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.08).
Win probability · fair 1.79
Top signals
Model read
"56% on Ajax is a measurement, not a promise." Ajax go into this Eredivisie meeting with Excelsior on 19 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 56%. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Ajax at 80%. Caution noted. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 62% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 61%. The recent series reads 1 wins for Ajax, 3 draws and 1 for Excelsior over 5 games, 4.0 goals on average. Form guide over the last six: Ajax W4 D1 L1, Excelsior W3 D1 L2. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.08).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
55.8%-23.8%
22.5%+9.7%
21.7%+14.0%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.08)
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.08).
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Ajax 1 · 3 draws · Excelsior 1 · 4.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
AjaxExcelsior83.3%100.0%
66.7%66.7%
33.3%33.3%
League averages this season: 3.92 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 80% · BTTS in 70%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 74.3% | Over 24.5 | 64.2% | Over 26.5 | 53.2% | Over 28.5 | 42.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Ajax | 61.0% | Most: Excelsior | 33.7% | ||||
| Ajax Over 13.2 | 58.6% | Excelsior Over 13.2 | 38.8% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 84.9% | Over 7.5 | 76.4% | Over 8.5 | 66.5% | Over 9.5 | 55.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Ajax | 53.8% | Most: Excelsior | 35.5% | ||||
| Ajax Over 4.2 | 61.8% | Excelsior Over 4.2 | 49.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 54.7% | Over 3.5 | 32.7% | Over 4.5 | 16.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Ajax | 30.9% | Most: Excelsior | 44.7% | ||
| Ajax Over 1.8 | 36.6% | Excelsior Over 1.8 | 47.2% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
| Ajax clean sheet | 30.0% |
|---|---|
| Excelsior clean sheet | 13.5% |
| Ajax win to nil | 25.4% |
| Excelsior win to nil | 8.9% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 55.8% | draw | 22.5% | away | 21.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 78.3% | 12 | 77.5% | X2 | 44.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 72.0% | away | 28.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 60.6% | no | 39.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 30.5% | away | 13.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 25.9% | away | 8.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.3% | home_by_2 | 17.1% | home_by_3plus | 16.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 13.0% | away_by_2 | 6.0% | away_by_3plus | 2.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.6% | 0-1 | 4.4% | 0-2 | 2.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.2% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 7.8% | 1-1 | 10.3% | 1-2 | 5.8% |
| 1-3 | 2.3% | 1-4 | 0.7% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.3% | 2-1 | 9.8% | 2-2 | 5.8% |
| 2-3 | 2.3% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 5.5% | 3-1 | 6.5% | 3-2 | 3.9% |
| 3-3 | 1.5% | 3-4 | 0.5% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 2.8% | 4-1 | 3.3% | 4-2 | 1.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.8% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 1.1% | 5-1 | 1.3% | 5-2 | 0.8% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.8% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 10.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.4% | under_0.5 | 4.6% | over_1.5 | 83.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 16.8% | over_2.5 | 61.8% | under_2.5 | 38.2% |
| over_3.5 | 39.5% | under_3.5 | 60.5% | over_4.5 | 21.8% |
| under_4.5 | 78.2% | over_5.5 | 10.4% | under_5.5 | 89.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.9% | even | 51.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 86.5% | under_0.5 | 13.5% | over_1.5 | 59.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 40.5% | over_2.5 | 32.4% | under_2.5 | 67.6% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 69.5% | under_0.5 | 30.5% | over_1.5 | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.7% | over_2.5 | 11.8% | under_2.5 | 88.2% |
most
| home | 55.8% | draw | 22.5% | away | 21.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 16.4% | away_+2.5 | 83.6% | home_-1.5 | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 66.5% | home_-0.5 | 55.8% | away_+0.5 | 44.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 78.3% | away_-0.5 | 21.7% | home_+1.5 | 91.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 8.7% | home_+2.5 | 97.3% | away_-2.5 | 2.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.6% | exact_1 | 12.2% | exact_2 | 21.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.3% | exact_4 | 17.8% | exact_5 | 11.3% |
| exact_6 | 6.0% | exact_7plus | 4.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 44.4% | draw | 36.8% | away | 18.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.4% | under_0.5 | 24.6% | over_1.5 | 40.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.1% | over_2.5 | 16.7% | under_2.5 | 83.3% |
btts
| yes | 23.1% | no | 76.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 24.6% | exact_1 | 34.5% | exact_2 | 24.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 11.3% | exact_4plus | 5.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 45.8% | draw | 32.1% | away | 22.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 82.9% | under_0.5 | 17.1% | over_1.5 | 52.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 47.3% | over_2.5 | 26.0% | under_2.5 | 74.0% |
btts
| yes | 32.4% | no | 67.6% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 37.4% | H/D | 5.1% | H/A | 1.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.9% | D/D | 11.8% | D/A | 8.1% |
| A/H | 3.1% | A/D | 4.4% | A/A | 11.3% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.6% | under_7.5 | 22.4% | over_8.5 | 67.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 32.9% | over_9.5 | 55.5% | under_9.5 | 44.5% |
| over_10.5 | 44.0% | under_10.5 | 56.0% | over_11.5 | 33.3% |
| under_11.5 | 66.7% | over_12.5 | 24.1% | under_12.5 | 75.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 77.7% | under_3.5 | 22.3% | over_4.5 | 64.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 35.9% | over_5.5 | 49.9% | under_5.5 | 50.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.7% | under_3.5 | 39.3% | over_4.5 | 44.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.9% | over_5.5 | 29.7% | under_5.5 | 70.3% |
most
| home | 58.3% | draw | 9.6% | away | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.3% | away_+3.5 | 70.7% | home_-1.5 | 48.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 51.7% | home_-0.5 | 58.3% | away_+0.5 | 41.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.8% | away_-0.5 | 32.2% | home_+1.5 | 76.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.7% | home_+3.5 | 88.9% | away_-3.5 | 11.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 74.3% | under_22.5 | 25.7% | over_24.5 | 64.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 35.8% | over_26.5 | 53.2% | under_26.5 | 46.8% |
| over_28.5 | 42.2% | under_28.5 | 57.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 79.0% | under_10.5 | 21.0% | over_12.5 | 65.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 34.2% | over_14.5 | 51.2% | under_14.5 | 48.8% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 62.7% | under_10.5 | 37.3% | over_12.5 | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 53.6% | over_14.5 | 31.7% | under_14.5 | 68.3% |
most
| home | 61.0% | draw | 5.3% | away | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 38.8% | away_+4.5 | 61.2% | home_-2.5 | 49.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.1% | home_-0.5 | 61.0% | away_+0.5 | 39.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.3% | away_-0.5 | 33.7% | home_+2.5 | 75.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 24.2% | home_+4.5 | 83.7% | away_-4.5 | 16.3% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 84.9% | under_6.5 | 15.2% | over_7.5 | 76.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 23.6% | over_8.5 | 66.5% | under_8.5 | 33.5% |
| over_9.5 | 55.8% | under_9.5 | 44.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 76.1% | under_3.5 | 23.9% | over_4.5 | 61.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 38.2% | over_5.5 | 47.2% | under_5.5 | 52.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 65.5% | under_3.5 | 34.5% | over_4.5 | 49.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.0% | over_5.5 | 34.1% | under_5.5 | 65.9% |
most
| home | 53.8% | draw | 10.8% | away | 35.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 32.5% | away_+2.5 | 67.5% | home_-0.5 | 53.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 46.2% | home_+0.5 | 64.5% | away_-0.5 | 35.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 82.2% | away_-2.5 | 17.8% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 54.7% | under_2.5 | 45.3% | over_3.5 | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 67.3% | over_4.5 | 16.8% | under_4.5 | 83.2% |
| over_5.5 | 7.6% | under_5.5 | 92.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.8% | even | 50.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 36.6% | under_1.5 | 63.4% | over_2.5 | 14.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 85.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 47.2% | under_1.5 | 52.8% | over_2.5 | 21.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 78.2% |
most
| home | 30.9% | draw | 24.4% | away | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 13.4% | away_+1.5 | 86.6% | home_-0.5 | 30.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 69.1% | home_+0.5 | 55.3% | away_-0.5 | 44.7% |
| home_+1.5 | 76.9% | away_-1.5 | 23.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 47.1% | under_20.5 | 52.9% | over_22.5 | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 67.8% | over_24.5 | 20.2% | under_24.5 | 79.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 37.4% | under_9.5 | 62.6% | over_11.5 | 18.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 81.4% | over_13.5 | 7.7% | under_13.5 | 92.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 69.9% | under_9.5 | 30.1% | over_11.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 50.6% | over_13.5 | 30.2% | under_13.5 | 69.8% |
most
| home | 24.2% | draw | 6.8% | away | 69.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 9.5% | away_+3.5 | 90.5% | home_-0.5 | 24.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 75.8% | home_+2.5 | 46.3% | away_-2.5 | 53.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 12.5% | no | 87.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.8% | no | 95.2% |
|---|
away
| yes | 8.1% | no | 91.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Ajax predictions · Excelsior predictions · Eredivisie
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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