Few Süper Lig fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Besiktas carry a 56% win probability against Amedspor on 20 September 2026. Our number sits above the market's 52% for Besiktas. The gap itself is information. Totals sit close to the fence: 55% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 54%. As a promoted side, Amedspor carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Form guide over the last six: Amedspor W3 D1 L1, Besiktas W4 D1 L1. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.027 <= 0).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 9.5 corners46.8%@ 2.14
Amedspor or draw43.5%@ 2.30
Over 10.5 corners36.7%@ 2.72
Medium risk
Over 2.5 goals54.8%@ 1.82
Both teams to score54.4%@ 1.84
Random finds
1-1 correct score11.2%@ 8.92
0-1 correct score10.0%@ 10.05
1-2 correct score9.9%@ 10.10
Model vs market
Amedspor
19.9%-2.9%
Draw
23.6%-1.3%
Besiktas
56.4%+4.1%
ModelMarket
conservative EV -0.027 <= 0
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely78.7%Fair 1.27
Over 2.5Close call54.8%Fair 1.82
BTTS · YesClose call54.4%Fair 1.84
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call57.5%Fair 1.74
Over 9.5 cornersClose call46.8%Fair 2.14
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely36.7%Fair 2.72
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot27.8%Fair 3.60
Most cornersAmedspor51.8%Besiktas37.2%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely67.6%Fair 1.48
Over 24.5 shotsClose call55.8%Fair 1.79
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely43.8%Fair 2.28
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely32.6%Fair 3.06
Recent shot volume
Amedspor15.6 taken9.0 faced
Besiktas18.2 taken10.5 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.578.7%2.554.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.578.7%
Discipline: Fairly priced. Conservative EV -0.027 <= 0.
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
BookmakerOur fair
Amedspor win3.905.03
Draw3.604.24
Besiktas win1.791.77
Over 2.5 goals1.671.82
Under 2.5 goals2.152.21
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Amedspor win5.02
Draw4.23
Besiktas win1.77
Both teams to score1.84
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.27
Over 2.5 goals1.83
Over 3.5 goals3.08
Amedspor most5.02
Besiktas most1.77
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.39
Over 8.5 corners1.67
Over 9.5 corners2.10
Over 10.5 corners2.77
Amedspor most1.93
Besiktas most2.68
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.20
Over 3.5 cards1.50
Over 4.5 cards2.10
Over 5.5 cards3.28
Amedspor most2.41
Besiktas most2.55
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.34
Over 7.5 SoT1.59
Over 8.5 SoT1.97
Over 9.5 SoT2.57
Amedspor most1.94
Besiktas most2.77
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.48
Over 24.5 shots1.79
Over 26.5 shots2.28
Over 28.5 shots3.06
Amedspor most1.62
Besiktas most3.07
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.19
Over 22.5 fouls1.38
Over 24.5 fouls1.72
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
67.6%
Over 24.5
55.8%
Over 26.5
43.8%
Over 28.5
32.6%
Most: Amedspor
61.8%
Most: Besiktas
32.6%
Amedspor Over 13.2
52.5%
Besiktas Over 13.2
31.6%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
74.6%
Over 7.5
63.0%
Over 8.5
50.7%
Over 9.5
38.9%
Most: Amedspor
51.6%
Most: Besiktas
36.1%
Amedspor Over 4.2
49.6%
Besiktas Over 4.2
38.4%
Cards
Over 2.5
83.1%
Over 3.5
66.5%
Over 4.5
47.6%
Most: Amedspor
41.5%
Most: Besiktas
39.2%
Amedspor Over 1.8
67.0%
Besiktas Over 1.8
65.5%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Amedspor clean sheet
15.6%
Besiktas clean sheet
35.7%
Amedspor win to nil
9.4%
Besiktas win to nil
29.5%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
19.9%
draw
23.6%
away
56.4%
double_chance
1X
43.6%
12
76.4%
X2
80.1%
dnb
home
26.1%
away
73.9%
btts
yes
54.4%
no
45.6%
clean_sheet
home
15.6%
away
36.1%
win_to_nil
home
9.5%
away
29.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1
12.7%
home_by_2
5.3%
home_by_3plus
2.0%
away_by_1
23.5%
away_by_2
17.5%
away_by_3plus
15.4%
correct_score
0-0
6.2%
0-1
10.0%
0-2
9.7%
0-3
6.0%
0-4
2.8%
0-5
1.0%
1-0
5.2%
1-1
11.2%
1-2
9.9%
1-3
6.1%
1-4
2.8%
1-5
1.1%
2-0
2.9%
2-1
5.4%
2-2
5.0%
2-3
3.1%
2-4
1.5%
2-5
0.5%
3-0
1.0%
3-1
1.8%
3-2
1.7%
3-3
1.1%
3-4
0.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-0
0.3%
4-1
0.5%
4-2
0.4%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
1.3%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
11.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
93.8%
under_0.5
6.2%
over_1.5
78.6%
under_1.5
21.3%
over_2.5
54.8%
under_2.5
45.2%
over_3.5
32.5%
under_3.5
67.6%
over_4.5
16.4%
under_4.5
83.6%
over_5.5
7.2%
under_5.5
92.8%
odd_even
odd
48.8%
even
51.2%
team_home
over_0.5
63.9%
under_0.5
36.1%
over_1.5
27.1%
under_1.5
72.9%
over_2.5
8.4%
under_2.5
91.6%
team_away
over_0.5
84.4%
under_0.5
15.6%
over_1.5
55.4%
under_1.5
44.7%
over_2.5
28.4%
under_2.5
71.6%
most
home
19.9%
draw
23.6%
away
56.4%
handicap
home_-2.5
2.0%
away_+2.5
98.0%
home_-1.5
7.3%
away_+1.5
92.7%
home_-0.5
19.9%
away_+0.5
80.1%
home_+0.5
43.6%
away_-0.5
56.4%
home_+1.5
67.1%
away_-1.5
32.9%
home_+2.5
84.6%
away_-2.5
15.4%
total_exact
exact_0
6.2%
exact_1
15.2%
exact_2
23.9%
exact_3
22.3%
exact_4
16.1%
exact_5
9.2%
exact_6
4.4%
exact_7plus
2.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
20.5%
draw
40.4%
away
39.1%
total
over_0.5
71.0%
under_0.5
29.0%
over_1.5
35.1%
under_1.5
64.9%
over_2.5
12.9%
under_2.5
87.1%
btts
yes
20.1%
no
79.9%
total_exact
exact_0
29.0%
exact_1
35.9%
exact_2
22.2%
exact_3
9.2%
exact_4plus
3.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
51.2%
draw
30.5%
away
18.3%
total
over_0.5
83.7%
under_0.5
16.3%
over_1.5
54.2%
under_1.5
45.8%
over_2.5
27.4%
under_2.5
72.6%
btts
yes
31.8%
no
68.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
17.3%
H/D
2.4%
H/A
0.8%
D/H
20.7%
D/D
12.3%
D/A
7.4%
A/H
7.0%
A/D
9.0%
A/A
23.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
71.7%
under_7.5
28.3%
over_8.5
59.9%
under_8.5
40.1%
over_9.5
47.7%
under_9.5
52.3%
over_10.5
36.1%
under_10.5
63.9%
over_11.5
26.1%
under_11.5
73.9%
over_12.5
17.9%
under_12.5
82.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
71.1%
under_3.5
29.0%
over_4.5
55.4%
under_4.5
44.6%
over_5.5
40.2%
under_5.5
59.9%
team_away
over_3.5
61.3%
under_3.5
38.7%
over_4.5
44.3%
under_4.5
55.7%
over_5.5
29.5%
under_5.5
70.5%
most
home
51.9%
draw
10.8%
away
37.3%
handicap
home_-3.5
22.1%
away_+3.5
77.9%
home_-1.5
41.0%
away_+1.5
59.0%
home_-0.5
51.9%
away_+0.5
48.1%
home_+0.5
62.7%
away_-0.5
37.3%
home_+1.5
72.5%
away_-1.5
27.5%
home_+3.5
87.3%
away_-3.5
12.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
67.6%
under_22.5
32.4%
over_24.5
55.8%
under_24.5
44.2%
over_26.5
43.8%
under_26.5
56.2%
over_28.5
32.6%
under_28.5
67.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
75.7%
under_10.5
24.3%
over_12.5
60.5%
under_12.5
39.5%
over_14.5
44.7%
under_14.5
55.3%
team_away
over_10.5
57.1%
under_10.5
42.9%
over_12.5
39.4%
under_12.5
60.6%
over_14.5
24.7%
under_14.5
75.3%
most
home
61.8%
draw
5.7%
away
32.6%
handicap
home_-4.5
37.7%
away_+4.5
62.3%
home_-2.5
49.7%
away_+2.5
50.3%
home_-0.5
61.8%
away_+0.5
38.2%
home_+0.5
67.4%
away_-0.5
32.6%
home_+2.5
77.6%
away_-2.5
22.4%
home_+4.5
85.6%
away_-4.5
14.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
74.6%
under_6.5
25.4%
over_7.5
63.0%
under_7.5
37.0%
over_8.5
50.7%
under_8.5
49.3%
over_9.5
38.9%
under_9.5
61.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
66.5%
under_3.5
33.5%
over_4.5
49.6%
under_4.5
50.4%
over_5.5
34.1%
under_5.5
65.9%
team_away
over_3.5
56.1%
under_3.5
43.9%
over_4.5
38.4%
under_4.5
61.6%
over_5.5
24.0%
under_5.5
76.0%
most
home
51.6%
draw
12.3%
away
36.1%
handicap
home_-2.5
28.0%
away_+2.5
72.0%
home_-0.5
51.6%
away_+0.5
48.4%
home_+0.5
63.9%
away_-0.5
36.1%
home_+2.5
83.7%
away_-2.5
16.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
83.1%
under_2.5
16.9%
over_3.5
66.5%
under_3.5
33.5%
over_4.5
47.6%
under_4.5
52.4%
over_5.5
30.5%
under_5.5
69.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
67.0%
under_1.5
33.0%
over_2.5
40.5%
under_2.5
59.5%
team_away
over_1.5
65.5%
under_1.5
34.5%
over_2.5
38.8%
under_2.5
61.2%
most
home
41.5%
draw
19.3%
away
39.2%
handicap
home_-1.5
24.2%
away_+1.5
75.8%
home_-0.5
41.5%
away_+0.5
58.5%
home_+0.5
60.8%
away_-0.5
39.2%
home_+1.5
77.6%
away_-1.5
22.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
83.7%
under_20.5
16.3%
over_22.5
72.2%
under_22.5
27.8%
over_24.5
58.3%
under_24.5
41.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
81.2%
under_9.5
18.8%
over_11.5
62.7%
under_11.5
37.3%
over_13.5
42.0%
under_13.5
58.0%
team_away
over_9.5
81.0%
under_9.5
19.1%
over_11.5
62.4%
under_11.5
37.6%
over_13.5
41.7%
under_13.5
58.3%
most
home
46.6%
draw
7.4%
away
46.0%
handicap
home_-3.5
26.0%
away_+3.5
74.0%
home_-0.5
46.6%
away_+0.5
53.4%
home_+2.5
68.2%
away_-2.5
31.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
10.9%
no
89.1%
home
yes
5.7%
no
94.3%
away
yes
5.5%
no
94.5%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Süper Lig
Amedspor
Besiktas