Few Süper Lig fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Fenerbahce carry a 70% win probability against Eyupspor on 20 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Fenerbahce at 82%. Caution noted. • The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 61% with both teams to score at 52%. • Fatigue may matter, with Fenerbahce 3 days shorter on recovery than Eyupspor. • Head to head, the last 4 meetings gave 2 wins for Fenerbahce, 2 draws and 0 for Eyupspor, averaging 3.5 goals a game. The run in: Fenerbahce arrive W2 D2 L2, Eyupspor W1 D1 L4. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.05).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners39.1%@ 2.56
Over 11.5 corners30.0%@ 3.33
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners59.8%@ 1.67
Both teams to score51.6%@ 1.94
Over 9.5 corners49.1%@ 2.04
Random finds
2-0 correct score11.4%@ 8.74
2-1 correct score9.6%@ 10.46
1-0 correct score9.4%@ 10.66
Model vs market
Fenerbahce
70.5%-11.9%
Draw
18.2%+5.8%
Eyupspor
11.3%+6.1%
ModelMarket
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.05)
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely82.9%Fair 1.21
Over 2.5Likely61.4%Fair 1.63
BTTS · YesClose call51.6%Fair 1.94
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call59.8%Fair 1.67
Over 9.5 cornersClose call49.1%Fair 2.04
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely39.1%Fair 2.56
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely30.0%Fair 3.33
Most cornersFenerbahce64.2%Eyupspor26.0%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely67.6%Fair 1.48
Over 24.5 shotsClose call55.7%Fair 1.79
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely43.6%Fair 2.29
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely32.3%Fair 3.10
Recent shot volume
Fenerbahce17.5 taken10.7 faced
Eyupspor11.2 taken13.7 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.582.9%2.561.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.561.4%
Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.05).
Form & head-to-head
FenerbahceLWWLD
EyupsporLLWLL
Last 4 meetings: Fenerbahce 2 · 2 draws · Eyupspor 0 · 3.5 goals/game.
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
BookmakerOur fair
Fenerbahce win1.151.42
Draw6.505.49
Eyupspor win13.008.85
Over 2.5 goals1.441.63
Under 2.5 goals2.702.59
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Fenerbahce win1.42
Draw5.51
Eyupspor win8.85
Both teams to score1.94
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.21
Over 2.5 goals1.63
Over 3.5 goals2.56
Over 4.5 goals4.66
Fenerbahce most1.42
Eyupspor most8.85
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.35
Over 8.5 corners1.60
Over 9.5 corners1.98
Over 10.5 corners2.57
Fenerbahce most1.55
Eyupspor most3.85
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.18
Over 3.5 cards1.45
Over 4.5 cards1.98
Over 5.5 cards3.03
Fenerbahce most3.31
Eyupspor most1.94
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.29
Over 7.5 SoT1.50
Over 8.5 SoT1.82
Over 9.5 SoT2.31
Fenerbahce most1.46
Eyupspor most4.70
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.48
Over 24.5 shots1.79
Over 26.5 shots2.29
Over 28.5 shots3.10
Fenerbahce most1.39
Eyupspor most4.30
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.16
Over 22.5 fouls1.32
Over 24.5 fouls1.60
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
67.6%
Over 24.5
55.7%
Over 26.5
43.6%
Over 28.5
32.3%
Most: Fenerbahce
71.8%
Most: Eyupspor
23.3%
Fenerbahce Over 13.2
59.6%
Eyupspor Over 13.2
24.1%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
77.7%
Over 7.5
66.9%
Over 8.5
55.0%
Over 9.5
43.3%
Most: Fenerbahce
68.6%
Most: Eyupspor
21.3%
Fenerbahce Over 4.2
63.6%
Eyupspor Over 4.2
28.3%
Cards
Over 2.5
84.7%
Over 3.5
68.9%
Over 4.5
50.4%
Most: Fenerbahce
30.2%
Most: Eyupspor
51.4%
Fenerbahce Over 1.8
60.7%
Eyupspor Over 1.8
74.1%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Fenerbahce clean sheet
42.0%
Eyupspor clean sheet
9.7%
Fenerbahce win to nil
37.4%
Eyupspor win to nil
5.1%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
70.5%
draw
18.2%
away
11.3%
double_chance
1X
88.7%
12
81.8%
X2
29.5%
dnb
home
86.2%
away
13.8%
btts
yes
51.6%
no
48.4%
clean_sheet
home
43.4%
away
9.7%
win_to_nil
home
38.8%
away
5.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1
22.6%
home_by_2
21.0%
home_by_3plus
27.0%
away_by_1
7.8%
away_by_2
2.7%
away_by_3plus
0.8%
correct_score
0-0
4.6%
0-1
3.1%
0-2
1.5%
0-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
1-0
9.4%
1-1
8.6%
1-2
3.4%
1-3
1.0%
1-4
0.2%
1-5
0.0%
2-0
11.4%
2-1
9.6%
2-2
4.0%
2-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
2-5
0.0%
3-0
8.9%
3-1
7.4%
3-2
3.1%
3-3
0.9%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.0%
4-0
5.2%
4-1
4.4%
4-2
1.8%
4-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
2.4%
5-1
2.0%
5-2
0.9%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
3.2%
likeliest_score
h
200.0%
a
0.0%
p
11.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
95.4%
under_0.5
4.6%
over_1.5
82.9%
under_1.5
17.1%
over_2.5
61.4%
under_2.5
38.6%
over_3.5
39.1%
under_3.5
60.9%
over_4.5
21.5%
under_4.5
78.6%
over_5.5
10.2%
under_5.5
89.8%
odd_even
odd
49.1%
even
50.9%
team_home
over_0.5
90.3%
under_0.5
9.7%
over_1.5
67.8%
under_1.5
32.2%
over_2.5
41.4%
under_2.5
58.6%
team_away
over_0.5
56.6%
under_0.5
43.4%
over_1.5
20.4%
under_1.5
79.6%
over_2.5
5.3%
under_2.5
94.7%
most
home
70.5%
draw
18.2%
away
11.3%
handicap
home_-2.5
27.0%
away_+2.5
73.0%
home_-1.5
47.9%
away_+1.5
52.1%
home_-0.5
70.5%
away_+0.5
29.5%
home_+0.5
88.7%
away_-0.5
11.3%
home_+1.5
96.5%
away_-1.5
3.5%
home_+2.5
99.2%
away_-2.5
0.8%
total_exact
exact_0
4.6%
exact_1
12.5%
exact_2
21.5%
exact_3
22.3%
exact_4
17.7%
exact_5
11.2%
exact_6
5.9%
exact_7plus
4.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
46.7%
draw
36.9%
away
16.5%
total
over_0.5
74.5%
under_0.5
25.5%
over_1.5
39.7%
under_1.5
60.3%
over_2.5
15.9%
under_2.5
84.2%
btts
yes
21.3%
no
78.7%
total_exact
exact_0
25.5%
exact_1
34.8%
exact_2
23.8%
exact_3
10.9%
exact_4plus
5.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
62.7%
draw
26.9%
away
10.4%
total
over_0.5
83.7%
under_0.5
16.3%
over_1.5
54.2%
under_1.5
45.8%
over_2.5
27.4%
under_2.5
72.6%
btts
yes
25.1%
no
74.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
43.4%
H/D
2.7%
H/A
0.5%
D/H
23.1%
D/D
9.9%
D/A
3.8%
A/H
4.7%
A/D
4.6%
A/A
7.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
74.0%
under_7.5
26.1%
over_8.5
62.6%
under_8.5
37.4%
over_9.5
50.5%
under_9.5
49.5%
over_10.5
38.9%
under_10.5
61.1%
over_11.5
28.5%
under_11.5
71.5%
over_12.5
20.0%
under_12.5
80.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
79.1%
under_3.5
20.9%
over_4.5
65.6%
under_4.5
34.4%
over_5.5
51.0%
under_5.5
49.0%
team_away
over_3.5
53.0%
under_3.5
47.0%
over_4.5
35.8%
under_4.5
64.2%
over_5.5
22.1%
under_5.5
77.9%
most
home
64.4%
draw
9.6%
away
26.0%
handicap
home_-3.5
33.0%
away_+3.5
67.0%
home_-1.5
53.9%
away_+1.5
46.1%
home_-0.5
64.4%
away_+0.5
35.6%
home_+0.5
74.0%
away_-0.5
26.0%
home_+1.5
82.1%
away_-1.5
18.0%
home_+3.5
92.8%
away_-3.5
7.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
67.6%
under_22.5
32.4%
over_24.5
55.7%
under_24.5
44.3%
over_26.5
43.6%
under_26.5
56.4%
over_28.5
32.3%
under_28.5
67.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
80.8%
under_10.5
19.2%
over_12.5
67.2%
under_12.5
32.8%
over_14.5
51.9%
under_14.5
48.1%
team_away
over_10.5
48.7%
under_10.5
51.3%
over_12.5
31.3%
under_12.5
68.7%
over_14.5
18.2%
under_14.5
81.8%
most
home
71.8%
draw
5.0%
away
23.3%
handicap
home_-4.5
48.4%
away_+4.5
51.6%
home_-2.5
60.6%
away_+2.5
39.4%
home_-0.5
71.8%
away_+0.5
28.2%
home_+0.5
76.7%
away_-0.5
23.3%
home_+2.5
85.0%
away_-2.5
15.0%
home_+4.5
91.1%
away_-4.5
8.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
77.7%
under_6.5
22.3%
over_7.5
66.9%
under_7.5
33.1%
over_8.5
55.0%
under_8.5
45.0%
over_9.5
43.3%
under_9.5
56.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
77.9%
under_3.5
22.1%
over_4.5
63.6%
under_4.5
36.4%
over_5.5
48.5%
under_5.5
51.5%
team_away
over_3.5
45.5%
under_3.5
54.5%
over_4.5
28.3%
under_4.5
71.7%
over_5.5
15.9%
under_5.5
84.1%
most
home
68.6%
draw
10.1%
away
21.3%
handicap
home_-2.5
44.8%
away_+2.5
55.2%
home_-0.5
68.6%
away_+0.5
31.4%
home_+0.5
78.7%
away_-0.5
21.3%
home_+2.5
92.2%
away_-2.5
7.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
84.7%
under_2.5
15.3%
over_3.5
68.9%
under_3.5
31.1%
over_4.5
50.4%
under_4.5
49.6%
over_5.5
33.0%
under_5.5
67.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
60.7%
under_1.5
39.3%
over_2.5
33.6%
under_2.5
66.4%
team_away
over_1.5
74.1%
under_1.5
25.9%
over_2.5
49.3%
under_2.5
50.7%
most
home
30.2%
draw
18.4%
away
51.4%
handicap
home_-1.5
15.9%
away_+1.5
84.1%
home_-0.5
30.2%
away_+0.5
69.8%
home_+0.5
48.6%
away_-0.5
51.4%
home_+1.5
67.0%
away_-1.5
33.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
86.2%
under_20.5
13.8%
over_22.5
75.8%
under_22.5
24.2%
over_24.5
62.5%
under_24.5
37.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
83.3%
under_9.5
16.8%
over_11.5
65.8%
under_11.5
34.2%
over_13.5
45.3%
under_13.5
54.7%
team_away
over_9.5
82.9%
under_9.5
17.1%
over_11.5
65.2%
under_11.5
34.8%
over_13.5
44.7%
under_13.5
55.3%
most
home
46.8%
draw
7.3%
away
45.9%
handicap
home_-3.5
26.4%
away_+3.5
73.6%
home_-0.5
46.8%
away_+0.5
53.2%
home_+2.5
68.1%
away_-2.5
31.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
28.4%
no
71.6%
home
yes
5.1%
no
95.0%
away
yes
24.6%
no
75.4%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Süper Lig
Fenerbahce
Eyupspor