Little between these two in the data. Alanyaspor at 40% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 19 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on Alanyaspor than the market (26%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • No strong lean on goals (46% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Form guide over the last six: Corum W2 D1 L2, Alanyaspor W2 D2 L2. • Corum are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.26)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 2.5 goals45.7%@ 2.19
Over 9.5 corners42.9%@ 2.33
Alanyaspor win40.4%@ 2.48
Medium risk
Under 2.5 goals54.3%@ 1.84
Over 8.5 corners53.8%@ 1.86
Both teams to score51.4%@ 1.95
Random finds
1-1 correct score13.4%@ 7.47
0-1 correct score10.4%@ 9.65
1-0 correct score8.8%@ 11.31
Model vs market
Corum
31.5%-14.2%
Draw
28.1%-0.4%
Alanyaspor
40.4%+14.5%
ModelMarket
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.26)
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely72.0%Fair 1.39
Over 2.5Close call45.7%Fair 2.19
BTTS · YesClose call51.4%Fair 1.95
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call53.8%Fair 1.86
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely42.9%Fair 2.33
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely33.0%Fair 3.03
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot24.5%Fair 4.08
Most cornersCorum53.4%Alanyaspor35.5%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely63.8%Fair 1.57
Over 24.5 shotsClose call51.7%Fair 1.93
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely39.7%Fair 2.52
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot28.9%Fair 3.46
Recent shot volume
Corum13.2 taken17.6 faced
Alanyaspor11.2 taken13.5 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.572.0%2.545.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.572.0%
Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.26).
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
BookmakerOur fair
Corum win2.053.17
Draw3.203.56
Alanyaspor win3.502.48
Over 2.5 goals2.002.19
Under 2.5 goals1.801.84
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Corum win3.17
Draw3.56
Alanyaspor win2.48
Both teams to score1.95
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.39
Over 2.5 goals2.19
Over 3.5 goals4.11
Corum most3.17
Alanyaspor most2.48
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.47
Over 8.5 corners1.80
Over 9.5 corners2.31
Over 10.5 corners3.13
Corum most1.87
Alanyaspor most2.81
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.26
Over 3.5 cards1.63
Over 4.5 cards2.38
Over 5.5 cards3.91
Corum most2.82
Alanyaspor most2.24
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.43
Over 7.5 SoT1.74
Over 8.5 SoT2.23
Over 9.5 SoT3.00
Corum most1.66
Alanyaspor most3.58
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.57
Over 24.5 shots1.93
Over 26.5 shots2.52
Over 28.5 shots3.46
Corum most1.55
Alanyaspor most3.33
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.19
Over 22.5 fouls1.37
Over 24.5 fouls1.70
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
63.8%
Over 24.5
51.7%
Over 26.5
39.7%
Over 28.5
28.9%
Most: Corum
64.3%
Most: Alanyaspor
30.0%
Corum Over 13.2
51.5%
Alanyaspor Over 13.2
27.1%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
69.9%
Over 7.5
57.5%
Over 8.5
44.9%
Over 9.5
33.4%
Most: Corum
60.1%
Most: Alanyaspor
27.9%
Corum Over 4.2
51.4%
Alanyaspor Over 4.2
28.1%
Cards
Over 2.5
79.7%
Over 3.5
61.4%
Over 4.5
42.0%
Most: Corum
35.4%
Most: Alanyaspor
44.7%
Corum Over 1.8
59.5%
Alanyaspor Over 1.8
65.7%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Corum clean sheet
26.0%
Alanyaspor clean sheet
31.3%
Corum win to nil
17.2%
Alanyaspor win to nil
22.5%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
31.5%
draw
28.1%
away
40.4%
double_chance
1X
59.6%
12
71.9%
X2
68.5%
dnb
home
43.9%
away
56.1%
btts
yes
51.4%
no
48.6%
clean_sheet
home
26.1%
away
31.4%
win_to_nil
home
17.3%
away
22.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1
18.4%
home_by_2
9.0%
home_by_3plus
4.2%
away_by_1
21.5%
away_by_2
12.1%
away_by_3plus
6.8%
correct_score
0-0
8.8%
0-1
10.4%
0-2
7.4%
0-3
3.3%
0-4
1.1%
0-5
0.3%
1-0
8.8%
1-1
13.4%
1-2
8.6%
1-3
3.8%
1-4
1.3%
1-5
0.4%
2-0
5.5%
2-1
7.4%
2-2
5.0%
2-3
2.2%
2-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-0
2.1%
3-1
2.9%
3-2
1.9%
3-3
0.9%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
0.6%
4-1
0.8%
4-2
0.6%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.2%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.4%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
13.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
91.2%
under_0.5
8.8%
over_1.5
72.0%
under_1.5
28.0%
over_2.5
45.7%
under_2.5
54.3%
over_3.5
24.3%
under_3.5
75.7%
over_4.5
10.9%
under_4.5
89.1%
over_5.5
4.2%
under_5.5
95.8%
odd_even
odd
48.4%
even
51.6%
team_home
over_0.5
68.6%
under_0.5
31.4%
over_1.5
32.3%
under_1.5
67.8%
over_2.5
11.2%
under_2.5
88.8%
team_away
over_0.5
73.9%
under_0.5
26.1%
over_1.5
38.9%
under_1.5
61.1%
over_2.5
15.3%
under_2.5
84.7%
most
home
31.5%
draw
28.1%
away
40.4%
handicap
home_-2.5
4.2%
away_+2.5
95.9%
home_-1.5
13.1%
away_+1.5
86.9%
home_-0.5
31.5%
away_+0.5
68.5%
home_+0.5
59.6%
away_-0.5
40.4%
home_+1.5
81.1%
away_-1.5
18.9%
home_+2.5
93.2%
away_-2.5
6.8%
total_exact
exact_0
8.8%
exact_1
19.2%
exact_2
26.3%
exact_3
21.4%
exact_4
13.4%
exact_5
6.7%
exact_6
2.8%
exact_7plus
1.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
34.7%
draw
39.6%
away
25.7%
total
over_0.5
73.2%
under_0.5
26.8%
over_1.5
37.9%
under_1.5
62.1%
over_2.5
14.7%
under_2.5
85.3%
btts
yes
23.0%
no
77.0%
total_exact
exact_0
26.8%
exact_1
35.3%
exact_2
23.2%
exact_3
10.2%
exact_4plus
4.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
45.3%
draw
30.7%
away
24.1%
total
over_0.5
85.4%
under_0.5
14.6%
over_1.5
57.4%
under_1.5
42.6%
over_2.5
30.4%
under_2.5
69.6%
btts
yes
36.7%
no
63.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
28.3%
H/D
4.5%
H/A
1.9%
D/H
17.9%
D/D
12.1%
D/A
9.5%
A/H
4.1%
A/D
5.7%
A/A
15.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
68.0%
under_7.5
32.0%
over_8.5
55.7%
under_8.5
44.3%
over_9.5
43.3%
under_9.5
56.7%
over_10.5
32.0%
under_10.5
68.0%
over_11.5
22.5%
under_11.5
77.5%
over_12.5
15.0%
under_12.5
85.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
69.7%
under_3.5
30.3%
over_4.5
53.8%
under_4.5
46.2%
over_5.5
38.5%
under_5.5
61.5%
team_away
over_3.5
57.2%
under_3.5
42.8%
over_4.5
40.0%
under_4.5
60.0%
over_5.5
25.7%
under_5.5
74.3%
most
home
53.5%
draw
11.0%
away
35.5%
handicap
home_-3.5
22.6%
away_+3.5
77.4%
home_-1.5
42.3%
away_+1.5
57.7%
home_-0.5
53.5%
away_+0.5
46.5%
home_+0.5
64.5%
away_-0.5
35.5%
home_+1.5
74.3%
away_-1.5
25.7%
home_+3.5
88.7%
away_-3.5
11.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
63.8%
under_22.5
36.2%
over_24.5
51.7%
under_24.5
48.3%
over_26.5
39.7%
under_26.5
60.3%
over_28.5
28.9%
under_28.5
71.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
74.9%
under_10.5
25.1%
over_12.5
59.5%
under_12.5
40.5%
over_14.5
43.6%
under_14.5
56.4%
team_away
over_10.5
52.1%
under_10.5
47.9%
over_12.5
34.6%
under_12.5
65.5%
over_14.5
20.7%
under_14.5
79.3%
most
home
64.4%
draw
5.6%
away
30.0%
handicap
home_-4.5
40.0%
away_+4.5
60.0%
home_-2.5
52.3%
away_+2.5
47.7%
home_-0.5
64.4%
away_+0.5
35.7%
home_+0.5
70.0%
away_-0.5
30.0%
home_+2.5
79.8%
away_-2.5
20.2%
home_+4.5
87.4%
away_-4.5
12.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
69.9%
under_6.5
30.1%
over_7.5
57.5%
under_7.5
42.5%
over_8.5
44.9%
under_8.5
55.1%
over_9.5
33.4%
under_9.5
66.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
68.1%
under_3.5
32.0%
over_4.5
51.4%
under_4.5
48.6%
over_5.5
35.8%
under_5.5
64.2%
team_away
over_3.5
45.3%
under_3.5
54.7%
over_4.5
28.1%
under_4.5
71.9%
over_5.5
15.8%
under_5.5
84.2%
most
home
60.1%
draw
12.0%
away
27.9%
handicap
home_-2.5
34.8%
away_+2.5
65.2%
home_-0.5
60.1%
away_+0.5
39.9%
home_+0.5
72.1%
away_-0.5
27.9%
home_+2.5
89.2%
away_-2.5
10.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
79.7%
under_2.5
20.3%
over_3.5
61.4%
under_3.5
38.6%
over_4.5
42.0%
under_4.5
58.0%
over_5.5
25.6%
under_5.5
74.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
59.5%
under_1.5
40.5%
over_2.5
32.4%
under_2.5
67.6%
team_away
over_1.5
65.7%
under_1.5
34.3%
over_2.5
39.0%
under_2.5
61.0%
most
home
35.4%
draw
19.9%
away
44.7%
handicap
home_-1.5
19.1%
away_+1.5
80.9%
home_-0.5
35.4%
away_+0.5
64.6%
home_+0.5
55.4%
away_-0.5
44.7%
home_+1.5
73.7%
away_-1.5
26.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
84.1%
under_20.5
15.9%
over_22.5
72.8%
under_22.5
27.2%
over_24.5
59.0%
under_24.5
41.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
83.7%
under_9.5
16.3%
over_11.5
66.5%
under_11.5
33.6%
over_13.5
46.1%
under_13.5
53.9%
team_away
over_9.5
78.9%
under_9.5
21.1%
over_11.5
59.5%
under_11.5
40.6%
over_13.5
38.6%
under_13.5
61.4%
most
home
51.6%
draw
7.3%
away
41.1%
handicap
home_-3.5
30.3%
away_+3.5
69.7%
home_-0.5
51.6%
away_+0.5
48.4%
home_+2.5
72.5%
away_-2.5
27.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
12.6%
no
87.4%
home
yes
9.9%
no
90.1%
away
yes
3.1%
no
96.9%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Süper Lig
Corum
Alanyaspor