Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Ajax71.1%
Win probability · fair 1.41
Top signals
Ajax or drawVery likely88.0%Fair 1.14
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely87.5%Fair 1.14
Over 2.5 goalsLikely69.1%Fair 1.45
Model read
▾
"71% on Ajax is a measurement, not a promise." Few Eredivisie fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Ajax carry a 71% win probability against Excelsior Rotterdam on 19 September 2026. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 69% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 58%. Excelsior Rotterdam are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners43.6%@ 2.29
Over 11.5 corners34.7%@ 2.88
Medium risk
Both teams to score58.4%@ 1.71
Over 9.5 corners53.3%@ 1.88
Random finds
2-0 correct score9.4%@ 10.67
2-1 correct score9.3%@ 10.78
3-0 correct score8.1%@ 12.42
Model vs market
Ajax
71.1%
Draw
16.9%
Excelsior
12.0%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely87.5%Fair 1.14
Over 2.5Likely69.1%Fair 1.45
BTTS · YesClose call58.4%Fair 1.71
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.3%Fair 1.58
Over 9.5 cornersClose call53.3%Fair 1.88
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely43.6%Fair 2.29
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely34.7%Fair 2.88
Most cornersAjax57.7%Excelsior Rotterdam32.5%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely74.9%Fair 1.34
Over 24.5 shotsLikely64.9%Fair 1.54
Over 26.5 shotsClose call53.9%Fair 1.85
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely42.9%Fair 2.33
Recent shot volume
Ajax23.3 taken10.5 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.587.5%2.569.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.569.1%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Ajax win1.41
Draw5.92
Excelsior Rotterdam win8.33
Both teams to score1.71
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.14
Over 2.5 goals1.45
Over 3.5 goals2.09
Over 4.5 goals3.48
Ajax most1.41
Excelsior Rotterdam most8.33
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.29
Over 8.5 corners1.48
Over 9.5 corners1.79
Over 10.5 corners2.26
Ajax most1.73
Excelsior Rotterdam most3.07
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.71
Over 3.5 cards2.73
Over 4.5 cards5.06
Over 5.5 cards10.70
Ajax most3.23
Excelsior Rotterdam most2.19
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.17
Over 7.5 SoT1.29
Over 8.5 SoT1.47
Over 9.5 SoT1.74
Ajax most1.82
Excelsior Rotterdam most2.91
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.34
Over 24.5 shots1.54
Over 26.5 shots1.85
Over 28.5 shots2.33
Ajax most1.62
Excelsior Rotterdam most3.02
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.98
Over 22.5 fouls2.82
Over 24.5 fouls4.40
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
74.9%
Over 24.5
64.9%
Over 26.5
53.9%
Over 28.5
42.9%
Most: Ajax
61.7%
Most: Excelsior Rotterdam
33.1%
Ajax Over 13.2
59.5%
Excelsior Rotterdam Over 13.2
38.8%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
85.8%
Over 7.5
77.7%
Over 8.5
68.0%
Over 9.5
57.5%
Most: Ajax
55.0%
Most: Excelsior Rotterdam
34.4%
Ajax Over 4.2
63.7%
Excelsior Rotterdam Over 4.2
49.3%
Cards
Over 2.5
58.6%
Over 3.5
36.6%
Over 4.5
19.8%
Most: Ajax
30.9%
Most: Excelsior Rotterdam
45.6%
Ajax Over 1.8
39.2%
Excelsior Rotterdam Over 1.8
50.3%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Ajax clean sheet
35.4%
Excelsior Rotterdam clean sheet
7.6%
Ajax win to nil
32.2%
Excelsior Rotterdam win to nil
4.4%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
71.1%
draw
16.9%
away
12.0%
double_chance
1X
88.0%
12
83.1%
X2
28.9%
dnb
home
85.6%
away
14.5%
btts
yes
58.4%
no
41.6%
clean_sheet
home
37.1%
away
7.6%
win_to_nil
home
34.0%
away
4.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1
21.1%
home_by_2
20.3%
home_by_3plus
29.7%
away_by_1
7.9%
away_by_2
3.0%
away_by_3plus
1.1%
correct_score
0-0
3.2%
0-1
2.4%
0-2
1.4%
0-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
1-0
6.9%
1-1
7.6%
1-2
3.6%
1-3
1.2%
1-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-0
9.4%
2-1
9.3%
2-2
4.6%
2-3
1.5%
2-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
8.1%
3-1
8.0%
3-2
4.0%
3-3
1.3%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
5.2%
4-1
5.1%
4-2
2.5%
4-3
0.8%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
2.7%
5-1
2.6%
5-2
1.3%
5-3
0.4%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
4.8%
likeliest_score
h
200.0%
a
0.0%
p
9.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
96.8%
under_0.5
3.2%
over_1.5
87.5%
under_1.5
12.5%
over_2.5
69.1%
under_2.5
30.9%
over_3.5
47.8%
under_3.5
52.2%
over_4.5
28.7%
under_4.5
71.3%
over_5.5
15.1%
under_5.5
84.9%
odd_even
odd
49.2%
even
50.8%
team_home
over_0.5
92.4%
under_0.5
7.6%
over_1.5
72.8%
under_1.5
27.2%
over_2.5
47.5%
under_2.5
52.5%
team_away
over_0.5
62.9%
under_0.5
37.1%
over_1.5
26.1%
under_1.5
73.9%
over_2.5
7.9%
under_2.5
92.1%
most
home
71.1%
draw
16.9%
away
12.0%
handicap
home_-2.5
29.7%
away_+2.5
70.4%
home_-1.5
50.0%
away_+1.5
50.0%
home_-0.5
71.1%
away_+0.5
28.9%
home_+0.5
88.0%
away_-0.5
12.0%
home_+1.5
95.9%
away_-1.5
4.1%
home_+2.5
98.9%
away_-2.5
1.1%
total_exact
exact_0
3.2%
exact_1
9.4%
exact_2
18.3%
exact_3
21.4%
exact_4
19.1%
exact_5
13.6%
exact_6
8.1%
exact_7plus
7.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
50.1%
draw
34.1%
away
15.9%
total
over_0.5
77.9%
under_0.5
22.1%
over_1.5
44.6%
under_1.5
55.4%
over_2.5
19.4%
under_2.5
80.6%
btts
yes
23.9%
no
76.1%
total_exact
exact_0
22.1%
exact_1
33.3%
exact_2
25.2%
exact_3
12.7%
exact_4plus
6.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
45.0%
draw
31.3%
away
23.7%
total
over_0.5
84.5%
under_0.5
15.5%
over_1.5
55.7%
under_1.5
44.3%
over_2.5
28.7%
under_2.5
71.3%
btts
yes
35.3%
no
64.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
42.0%
H/D
5.8%
H/A
2.3%
D/H
15.3%
D/D
10.6%
D/A
8.1%
A/H
2.6%
A/D
3.7%
A/A
9.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
77.8%
under_7.5
22.2%
over_8.5
67.4%
under_8.5
32.6%
over_9.5
55.9%
under_9.5
44.1%
over_10.5
44.3%
under_10.5
55.7%
over_11.5
33.6%
under_11.5
66.4%
over_12.5
24.3%
under_12.5
75.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
77.6%
under_3.5
22.4%
over_4.5
64.1%
under_4.5
35.9%
over_5.5
49.8%
under_5.5
50.2%
team_away
over_3.5
61.2%
under_3.5
38.8%
over_4.5
44.7%
under_4.5
55.3%
over_5.5
30.3%
under_5.5
69.7%
most
home
57.9%
draw
9.6%
away
32.6%
handicap
home_-3.5
29.0%
away_+3.5
71.0%
home_-1.5
47.8%
away_+1.5
52.2%
home_-0.5
57.9%
away_+0.5
42.1%
home_+0.5
67.4%
away_-0.5
32.6%
home_+1.5
76.0%
away_-1.5
24.0%
home_+3.5
88.6%
away_-3.5
11.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
74.9%
under_22.5
25.1%
over_24.5
64.9%
under_24.5
35.1%
over_26.5
53.9%
under_26.5
46.1%
over_28.5
42.9%
under_28.5
57.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
79.7%
under_10.5
20.3%
over_12.5
66.7%
under_12.5
33.3%
over_14.5
52.3%
under_14.5
47.8%
team_away
over_10.5
62.7%
under_10.5
37.3%
over_12.5
46.4%
under_12.5
53.6%
over_14.5
31.7%
under_14.5
68.3%
most
home
61.7%
draw
5.2%
away
33.1%
handicap
home_-4.5
39.5%
away_+4.5
60.5%
home_-2.5
50.6%
away_+2.5
49.4%
home_-0.5
61.7%
away_+0.5
38.3%
home_+0.5
66.9%
away_-0.5
33.1%
home_+2.5
76.3%
away_-2.5
23.7%
home_+4.5
84.1%
away_-4.5
15.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
85.8%
under_6.5
14.2%
over_7.5
77.7%
under_7.5
22.3%
over_8.5
68.0%
under_8.5
32.0%
over_9.5
57.5%
under_9.5
42.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
77.6%
under_3.5
22.5%
over_4.5
63.7%
under_4.5
36.3%
over_5.5
49.3%
under_5.5
50.7%
team_away
over_3.5
65.8%
under_3.5
34.2%
over_4.5
49.4%
under_4.5
50.6%
over_5.5
34.4%
under_5.5
65.6%
most
home
55.0%
draw
10.6%
away
34.4%
handicap
home_-2.5
33.8%
away_+2.5
66.2%
home_-0.5
55.0%
away_+0.5
45.0%
home_+0.5
65.6%
away_-0.5
34.4%
home_+2.5
82.9%
away_-2.5
17.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
58.6%
under_2.5
41.4%
over_3.5
36.6%
under_3.5
63.4%
over_4.5
19.8%
under_4.5
80.2%
over_5.5
9.4%
under_5.5
90.6%
odd_even
odd
49.9%
even
50.1%
team_home
over_1.5
39.2%
under_1.5
60.8%
over_2.5
15.9%
under_2.5
84.1%
team_away
over_1.5
50.3%
under_1.5
49.7%
over_2.5
24.5%
under_2.5
75.5%
most
home
31.0%
draw
23.5%
away
45.6%
handicap
home_-1.5
13.8%
away_+1.5
86.2%
home_-0.5
31.0%
away_+0.5
69.1%
home_+0.5
54.4%
away_-0.5
45.6%
home_+1.5
75.7%
away_-1.5
24.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
50.5%
under_20.5
49.5%
over_22.5
35.4%
under_22.5
64.6%
over_24.5
22.7%
under_24.5
77.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
49.5%
under_9.5
50.5%
over_11.5
28.4%
under_11.5
71.6%
over_13.5
13.7%
under_13.5
86.3%
team_away
over_9.5
64.6%
under_9.5
35.4%
over_11.5
43.2%
under_11.5
56.8%
over_13.5
24.9%
under_13.5
75.1%
most
home
35.4%
draw
7.6%
away
57.0%
handicap
home_-3.5
16.5%
away_+3.5
83.5%
home_-0.5
35.4%
away_+0.5
64.6%
home_+2.5
58.8%
away_-2.5
41.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
14.4%
no
85.6%
home
yes
4.6%
no
95.5%
away
yes
10.4%
no
89.6%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Eredivisie
Ajax