Tottenham vs Aston Villa prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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Tottenham vs Aston Villa: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

Premier League
Tottenham

WLLDD

Sat, 19 Sep 202612:30UK20°C · Cloudy
Aston Villa

WLLDL

Model’s top convictions

74%

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Tottenham or draw

63%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
TottenhamWin probability
37.8%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals74.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.35
Tottenham or draw64.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.54
Over 8.5 corners63.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.58

Model read

▾

Little between these two in the data. Tottenham at 38% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 19 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • For shots markets, Omar Marmoush is the obvious watch at 1.5 on target per 90 in recent data. • Recent form reads W1 D2 L3 for Tottenham against W2 D1 L3 for Aston Villa. Squad notes: Tottenham have Tonali a doubt, Vicario ruled out, Pedro Porro a doubt, Romero ruled out. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Tottenham, 0 draws and 2 for Aston Villa at 3.4 goals per match. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners43.5%@ 2.30
Aston Villa win35.1%@ 2.85
Over 11.5 corners34.6%@ 2.89
Medium risk

Both teams to score53.6%@ 1.87
Over 9.5 corners53.2%@ 1.88
Under 2.5 goals51.7%@ 1.93
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.1%@ 7.61
1-0 correct score9.1%@ 10.94
0-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.33

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Tottenham

37.8%

Draw

27.1%

Aston Villa

35.1%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.574.0%

Strong chance

Over 2.548.3%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes53.6%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.563.1%

Strong chance

Over 9.553.2%

Good chance

Over 10.543.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.534.6%

Toss-up

Most cornersTottenham52.8%Aston Villa37.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.563.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.552.0%

Good chance

Over 26.540.6%

Toss-up

Over 28.530.2%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Tottenham13.5 taken13.0 faced
Aston Villa9.8 taken15.5 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Tottenham (4 games)

5.5 / 7.5

Aston Villa (4 games)

4.8 / 3.8

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.574.0%2.548.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.574.0%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

TottenhamWLLDD
Aston VillaWLLDL

Last 5 meetings: Tottenham 3 · 0 draws · Aston Villa 2 · 3.4 goals/game.

2026-05-03Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham
2025-10-19Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa
2025-05-16Aston Villa 2-0 Tottenham
2024-11-03Tottenham 4-1 Aston Villa
2024-03-10Aston Villa 0-4 Tottenham

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

TottenhamAston Villa
League position#17 of 20#19 of 20
Record W-D-L0-2-20-1-3
Current streakD2L1
Record, home vs away0-1-10-1-1
Red cards this season01

League averages this season: 2.85 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Omar MarmoushTottenham · key player
To score33.6%

@ 2.98

1+ on target64.7%

@ 1.55

2+ shots76.5%

@ 1.31

Shots/90 4SoT/90 1.5Goals/90 0.59
Nicolas JacksonAston Villa · key player
To score26.3%

@ 3.80

1+ on target60.2%

@ 1.66

2+ shots60.8%

@ 1.64

Shots/90 3.03SoT/90 1.36Goals/90 0.45
SávioTottenham · in form
To score3.7%

@ 27.03

1+ on target39.5%

@ 2.53

2+ shots40.2%

@ 2.49

Shots/90 2.56SoT/90 0.93Goals/90 0.07
Ibrahim MbayeAston Villa · in form
To score12.3%

@ 8.13

1+ on target40.2%

@ 2.49

2+ shots31.1%

@ 3.22

Shots/90 2.5SoT/90 1.14Goals/90 0.29
Dominic SolankeTottenham · in form
To score23.1%

@ 4.33

1+ on target51.9%

@ 1.93

2+ shots53.0%

@ 1.89

Shots/90 2.23SoT/90 0.92Goals/90 0.33
Alejandro GarnachoAston Villa · in form
To score9.6%

@ 10.42

1+ on target44.7%

@ 2.24

2+ shots56.6%

@ 1.77

Shots/90 3.01SoT/90 0.94Goals/90 0.16

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Tottenham win2.69
Draw3.63
Aston Villa win2.84
Both teams to score1.86

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.35
Over 2.5 goals2.07
Over 3.5 goals3.76
Tottenham most2.69
Aston Villa most2.84

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.29
Over 8.5 corners1.50
Over 9.5 corners1.80
Over 10.5 corners2.27
Tottenham most1.89
Aston Villa most2.68

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.29
Over 3.5 cards1.70
Over 4.5 cards2.55
Over 5.5 cards4.30
Tottenham most2.43
Aston Villa most2.60

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.42
Over 7.5 SoT1.70
Over 8.5 SoT2.14
Over 9.5 SoT2.82
Tottenham most1.91
Aston Villa most2.82

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.58
Over 24.5 shots1.92
Over 26.5 shots2.46
Over 28.5 shots3.32
Tottenham most1.66
Aston Villa most2.93

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.42
Over 22.5 fouls1.80
Over 24.5 fouls2.51

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • TonaliTottenhamDoubtful75% to play
  • VicarioTottenhamOut0% to play
  • Pedro PorroTottenhamDoubtful75% to play
  • RomeroTottenhamOut0% to play
  • SpenceTottenhamOut0% to play
  • PhillipsTottenhamOut0% to play
  • SouzaTottenhamOut0% to play
  • XaviTottenhamOut0% to play
  • OdobertTottenhamOut0% to play
  • P.M.SarrTottenhamOut0% to play
  • KulusevskiTottenhamOut0% to play
  • MooreTottenhamOut0% to play
  • RicharlisonTottenhamOut0% to play
  • ScarlettTottenhamOut0% to play

What the absences carry

  • RicharlisonTottenham8.4%18.1 xG+xA in 2,444 min
  • Mikey MooreTottenham1.3%2.7 xG+xA in 561 min
  • Mykhailo MudrykTottenhamnot enough minutes to weigh0.8 xG+xA in 80 min

Share of the squad’s total expected goal involvement (xG + xA) this season. It is a measure of what the team is missing, not a prediction of the result: we do not publish a re-run win probability, because estimating who replaces him is a model change that has to be validated first.

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 63.5% Over 24.5 52.0% Over 26.5 40.6% Over 28.5 30.2%
Most: Tottenham 60.4% Most: Aston Villa 34.1%
Tottenham Over 13.2 49.2% Aston Villa Over 13.2 30.5%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 70.6% Over 7.5 58.7% Over 8.5 46.6% Over 9.5 35.4%
Most: Tottenham 52.4% Most: Aston Villa 35.4%
Tottenham Over 4.2 47.2% Aston Villa Over 4.2 35.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 77.8% Over 3.5 58.8% Over 4.5 39.3%
Most: Tottenham 41.1% Most: Aston Villa 38.5%
Tottenham Over 1.8 61.8% Aston Villa Over 1.8 60.0%

Tottenham: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Omar Marmoush 4 1.5 0.59 64.7% 76.5% 33.6%
Sávio 2.56 0.93 0.07 39.5% 40.2% 3.7%
Dominic Solanke 2.23 0.92 0.33 51.9% 53.0% 23.1%
James Maddison 1.9 0.76 0.49 34.6% 28.7% 23.9%
Mathys Tel 2.46 0.71 0.2 32.3% 39.2% 10.4%

Aston Villa: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Nicolas Jackson 3.03 1.36 0.45 60.2% 60.8% 26.3%
Ibrahim Mbaye 2.5 1.14 0.29 40.2% 31.1% 12.3%
Alejandro Garnacho 3.01 0.94 0.16 44.7% 56.6% 9.6%
Tammy Abraham 2.19 0.84 0.26 27.2% 20.1% 9.4%
Ross Barkley 2.24 0.8 0.34 28.3% 23.8% 13.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Tottenham clean sheet 27.7%
Aston Villa clean sheet 26.6%
Tottenham win to nil 19.7%
Aston Villa win to nil 18.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 37.2% draw 27.6% away 35.3%
double_chance
1X 64.7% 12 72.4% X2 62.8%
dnb
home 51.3% away 48.7%
btts
yes 53.6% no 46.4%
clean_sheet
home 27.7% away 26.6%
win_to_nil
home 19.7% away 18.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.1% home_by_2 11.0% home_by_3plus 6.1%
away_by_1 19.5% away_by_2 10.3% away_by_3plus 5.4%
correct_score
0-0 8.0% 0-1 8.8% 0-2 6.1%
0-3 2.6% 0-4 0.8% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 9.1% 1-1 13.1% 1-2 8.0%
1-3 3.4% 1-4 1.1% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.5% 2-1 8.3% 2-2 5.3%
2-3 2.3% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 2.9% 3-1 3.7% 3-2 2.4%
3-3 1.0% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.0% 4-1 1.2% 4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.0% under_0.5 8.0% over_1.5 74.0%
under_1.5 26.0% over_2.5 48.4% under_2.5 51.7%
over_3.5 26.6% under_3.5 73.4% over_4.5 12.4%
under_4.5 87.6% over_5.5 5.0% under_5.5 95.0%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 73.4% under_0.5 26.6% over_1.5 38.2%
under_1.5 61.8% over_2.5 14.9% under_2.5 85.1%
team_away
over_0.5 72.3% under_0.5 27.7% over_1.5 36.7%
under_1.5 63.3% over_2.5 13.9% under_2.5 86.1%
most
home 37.2% draw 27.6% away 35.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.1% away_+2.5 94.0% home_-1.5 17.1%
away_+1.5 82.9% home_-0.5 37.2% away_+0.5 62.8%
home_+0.5 64.8% away_-0.5 35.3% home_+1.5 84.2%
away_-1.5 15.8% home_+2.5 94.6% away_-2.5 5.4%
total_exact
exact_0 8.0% exact_1 18.0% exact_2 25.7%
exact_3 21.8% exact_4 14.2% exact_5 7.4%
exact_6 3.2% exact_7plus 1.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.3% draw 43.3% away 25.4%
total
over_0.5 67.8% under_0.5 32.2% over_1.5 31.3%
under_1.5 68.7% over_2.5 10.6% under_2.5 89.4%
btts
yes 18.6% no 81.4%
total_exact
exact_0 32.2% exact_1 36.5% exact_2 20.7%
exact_3 7.8% exact_4plus 2.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.7% draw 37.2% away 36.1%
total
over_0.5 76.7% under_0.5 23.3% over_1.5 42.7%
under_1.5 57.3% over_2.5 18.0% under_2.5 82.0%
btts
yes 26.4% no 73.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.2% H/D 6.2% H/A 2.9%
D/H 11.6% D/D 16.1% D/A 15.6%
A/H 1.5% A/D 4.1% A/A 19.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 77.3% under_7.5 22.8% over_8.5 66.9%
under_8.5 33.1% over_9.5 55.5% under_9.5 44.5%
over_10.5 44.1% under_10.5 55.9% over_11.5 33.6%
under_11.5 66.4% over_12.5 24.5% under_12.5 75.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.6% under_3.5 25.4% over_4.5 60.4%
under_4.5 39.6% over_5.5 46.0% under_5.5 54.0%
team_away
over_3.5 64.5% under_3.5 35.5% over_4.5 48.5%
under_4.5 51.5% over_5.5 34.0% under_5.5 66.0%
most
home 52.9% draw 9.8% away 37.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.0% away_+3.5 75.0% home_-1.5 43.0%
away_+1.5 57.0% home_-0.5 52.9% away_+0.5 47.1%
home_+0.5 62.7% away_-0.5 37.3% home_+1.5 71.8%
away_-1.5 28.2% home_+3.5 85.9% away_-3.5 14.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 63.5% under_22.5 36.5% over_24.5 52.0%
under_24.5 48.0% over_26.5 40.6% under_26.5 59.4%
over_28.5 30.2% under_28.5 69.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.0% under_10.5 28.0% over_12.5 56.9%
under_12.5 43.1% over_14.5 41.8% under_14.5 58.2%
team_away
over_10.5 54.6% under_10.5 45.4% over_12.5 37.9%
under_12.5 62.1% over_14.5 24.1% under_14.5 75.9%
most
home 60.4% draw 5.6% away 34.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.2% away_+4.5 62.8% home_-2.5 48.7%
away_+2.5 51.3% home_-0.5 60.4% away_+0.5 39.7%
home_+0.5 65.9% away_-0.5 34.1% home_+2.5 76.0%
away_-2.5 24.0% home_+4.5 84.1% away_-4.5 15.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 70.6% under_6.5 29.4% over_7.5 58.7%
under_7.5 41.3% over_8.5 46.7% under_8.5 53.3%
over_9.5 35.4% under_9.5 64.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.8% under_3.5 36.2% over_4.5 47.2%
under_4.5 52.8% over_5.5 32.5% under_5.5 67.6%
team_away
over_3.5 52.1% under_3.5 47.9% over_4.5 35.0%
under_4.5 65.0% over_5.5 21.6% under_5.5 78.4%
most
home 52.4% draw 12.2% away 35.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 28.8% away_+2.5 71.2% home_-0.5 52.4%
away_+0.5 47.6% home_+0.5 64.6% away_-0.5 35.4%
home_+2.5 84.0% away_-2.5 16.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 77.8% under_2.5 22.2% over_3.5 58.8%
under_3.5 41.2% over_4.5 39.3% under_4.5 60.7%
over_5.5 23.2% under_5.5 76.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 61.8% under_1.5 38.2% over_2.5 34.8%
under_2.5 65.3%
team_away
over_1.5 60.0% under_1.5 40.0% over_2.5 32.9%
under_2.5 67.1%
most
home 41.1% draw 20.4% away 38.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 23.1% away_+1.5 76.9% home_-0.5 41.1%
away_+0.5 58.9% home_+0.5 61.5% away_-0.5 38.5%
home_+1.5 78.9% away_-1.5 21.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 70.6% under_20.5 29.4% over_22.5 55.4%
under_22.5 44.6% over_24.5 39.8% under_24.5 60.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 77.6% under_9.5 22.4% over_11.5 57.4%
under_11.5 42.6% over_13.5 36.3% under_13.5 63.7%
team_away
over_9.5 65.0% under_9.5 35.0% over_11.5 42.1%
under_11.5 57.9% over_13.5 22.7% under_13.5 77.3%
most
home 56.8% draw 7.7% away 35.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 33.5% away_+3.5 66.5% home_-0.5 56.8%
away_+0.5 43.2% home_+2.5 78.0% away_-2.5 22.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 8.4% no 91.6%
home
yes 2.7% no 97.3%
away
yes 5.9% no 94.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Tottenham predictions · Aston Villa predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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