M’gladbach vs Mainz prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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M'gladbach vs Mainz: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 14 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
M'gladbach

WLWLL

Sat, 19 Sep 202614:30UK
Mainz

WLWDW

Model’s top convictions

81%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Draw or Mainz

61%

Both teams to score

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
MainzWin probability
42.3%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals80.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.24
Draw or Mainz66.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.50
Both teams to score61.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.63

Model read

▾

"42% on Mainz is a measurement, not a promise." Little between these two in the data. Mainz at 42% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 19 September 2026. No strong lean on goals (58% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. For shots markets, Tim Kleindienst is the obvious watch at 1.1 on target per 90 in recent data. Recent form reads W2 D1 L3 for M'gladbach against W3 D1 L2 for Mainz. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for M'gladbach, 3 draws and 1 for Mainz, averaging 2.2 goals a game. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners47.9%@ 2.09
Mainz win42.3%@ 2.36
Over 10.5 corners37.6%@ 2.66
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners58.7%@ 1.70
Over 2.5 goals58.2%@ 1.72
M'gladbach or draw57.7%@ 1.73
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.6%@ 8.62
1-2 correct score8.7%@ 11.44
2-1 correct score7.9%@ 12.61

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

M'gladbach

33.1%

Draw

24.5%

Mainz

42.3%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.580.9%

High probability

Over 2.558.2%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes61.2%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.558.7%

Good chance

Over 9.547.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.537.6%

Toss-up

Over 11.528.6%

Low chance

Most cornersM'gladbach56.7%Mainz32.6%

Shots markets

Over 22.571.2%

Strong chance

Over 24.559.8%

Good chance

Over 26.547.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.536.2%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

M'gladbach14.5 taken13.8 faced
Mainz17.5 taken11.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

M'gladbach (2 games)

8.5 / 11.5

Mainz (2 games)

10.0 / 9.5

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.580.9%2.558.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.580.9%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

M'gladbachWLWLL
MainzWLWDW

Last 5 meetings: M'gladbach 1 · 3 draws · Mainz 1 · 2.2 goals/game.

2026-04-19M'gladbach 1-1 Mainz
2025-12-05Mainz 0-1 M'gladbach
2025-03-07M'gladbach 1-3 Mainz
2024-10-25Mainz 1-1 M'gladbach
2024-03-02Mainz 1-1 M'gladbach

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

M'gladbachMainz
League position#17 of 18#5 of 18
Record W-D-L0-0-21-1-0
Current streakL2W1
Record, home vs away0-0-11-0-0
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Tim KleindienstM'gladbach · key player
To score33.1%

@ 3.02

1+ on target64.2%

@ 1.56

2+ shots63.1%

@ 1.58

Shots/90 2.4SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.45
Sheraldo BeckerMainz · key player
To score12.9%

@ 7.75

1+ on target48.2%

@ 2.07

2+ shots38.0%

@ 2.63

Shots/90 2.57SoT/90 1.28Goals/90 0.27
Shuto MachinoM'gladbach · in form
To score19.1%

@ 5.24

1+ on target39.3%

@ 2.54

2+ shots30.6%

@ 3.27

Shots/90 2.21SoT/90 0.99Goals/90 0.42
Phillip TietzMainz · in form
To score22.3%

@ 4.48

1+ on target52.8%

@ 1.89

2+ shots53.6%

@ 1.87

Shots/90 2.85SoT/90 1.19Goals/90 0.4
Hugo BolinM'gladbach · in form
To score16.9%

@ 5.92

1+ on target39.5%

@ 2.53

2+ shots46.3%

@ 2.16

Shots/90 2.96SoT/90 0.95Goals/90 0.35
Ransford KönigsdörfferMainz · in form
To score15.7%

@ 6.37

1+ on target48.6%

@ 2.06

2+ shots57.8%

@ 1.73

Shots/90 2.51SoT/90 0.86Goals/90 0.22

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

M'gladbach win2.93
Draw3.96
Mainz win2.46
Both teams to score1.63

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.24
Over 2.5 goals1.72
Over 3.5 goals2.78
M'gladbach most2.93
Mainz most2.46

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.37
Over 8.5 corners1.64
Over 9.5 corners2.04
Over 10.5 corners2.68
M'gladbach most1.76
Mainz most3.06

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.33
Over 3.5 cards1.81
Over 4.5 cards2.81
Over 5.5 cards4.92
M'gladbach most2.76
Mainz most2.33

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.21
Over 7.5 SoT1.36
Over 8.5 SoT1.60
Over 9.5 SoT1.96
M'gladbach most2.01
Mainz most2.59

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.40
Over 24.5 shots1.67
Over 26.5 shots2.10
Over 28.5 shots2.77
M'gladbach most1.68
Mainz most2.89

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.90
Over 22.5 fouls2.47
Over 24.5 fouls3.37
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 71.2% Over 24.5 59.8% Over 26.5 47.7% Over 28.5 36.1%
Most: M'gladbach 59.6% Most: Mainz 34.6%
M'gladbach Over 13.2 53.8% Mainz Over 13.2 35.8%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 82.9% Over 7.5 73.4% Over 8.5 62.5% Over 9.5 51.0%
Most: M'gladbach 49.8% Most: Mainz 38.6%
M'gladbach Over 4.2 56.6% Mainz Over 4.2 48.6%

Cards

Over 2.5 75.1% Over 3.5 55.2% Over 4.5 35.6%
Most: M'gladbach 36.2% Most: Mainz 43.0%
M'gladbach Over 1.8 55.9% Mainz Over 1.8 60.7%

M'gladbach: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Tim Kleindienst 2.4 1.15 0.45 64.2% 63.1% 33.1%
Shuto Machino 2.21 0.99 0.42 39.3% 30.6% 19.1%
Hugo Bolin 2.96 0.95 0.35 39.5% 46.3% 16.9%
Robin Hack 2.39 0.94 0.17 47.7% 49.1% 11.1%
Wael Mohya 1.82 0.78 0.26 28.3% 18.3% 10.5%

Mainz: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Sheraldo Becker 2.57 1.28 0.27 48.2% 38.0% 12.9%
Phillip Tietz 2.85 1.19 0.4 52.8% 53.6% 22.3%
Ransford Königsdörffer 2.51 0.86 0.22 48.6% 57.8% 15.7%
Nadiem Amiri 2.22 0.86 0.33 54.5% 60.3% 26.1%
Benedict Hollerbach 2.6 0.67 0.24 41.2% 61.1% 17.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

M'gladbach clean sheet 20.5%
Mainz clean sheet 23.6%
M'gladbach win to nil 15.0%
Mainz win to nil 18.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 34.2% draw 25.2% away 40.6%
double_chance
1X 59.4% 12 74.8% X2 65.8%
dnb
home 45.7% away 54.3%
btts
yes 61.2% no 38.8%
clean_sheet
home 20.5% away 23.7%
win_to_nil
home 15.1% away 18.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.1% home_by_2 10.1% home_by_3plus 6.0%
away_by_1 20.0% away_by_2 12.3% away_by_3plus 8.4%
correct_score
0-0 5.5% 0-1 7.1% 0-2 6.1%
0-3 3.2% 0-4 1.3% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 6.5% 1-1 11.6% 1-2 8.7%
1-3 4.6% 1-4 1.8% 1-5 0.6%
2-0 5.0% 2-1 7.9% 2-2 6.3%
2-3 3.4% 2-4 1.3% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 2.4% 3-1 3.8% 3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.6% 3-4 0.7% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.9% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.6% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.0%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.5% under_0.5 5.5% over_1.5 80.9%
under_1.5 19.1% over_2.5 58.2% under_2.5 41.8%
over_3.5 35.9% under_3.5 64.1% over_4.5 19.1%
under_4.5 80.9% over_5.5 8.8% under_5.5 91.2%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 76.3% under_0.5 23.7% over_1.5 42.2%
under_1.5 57.8% over_2.5 17.7% under_2.5 82.3%
team_away
over_0.5 79.5% under_0.5 20.5% over_1.5 47.1%
under_1.5 52.9% over_2.5 21.4% under_2.5 78.6%
most
home 34.2% draw 25.2% away 40.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.0% away_+2.5 94.0% home_-1.5 16.1%
away_+1.5 83.9% home_-0.5 34.2% away_+0.5 65.8%
home_+0.5 59.4% away_-0.5 40.6% home_+1.5 79.4%
away_-1.5 20.6% home_+2.5 91.6% away_-2.5 8.4%
total_exact
exact_0 5.5% exact_1 13.6% exact_2 22.7%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 16.9% exact_5 10.3%
exact_6 5.2% exact_7plus 3.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.9% draw 39.2% away 34.0%
total
over_0.5 73.9% under_0.5 26.1% over_1.5 38.8%
under_1.5 61.2% over_2.5 15.3% under_2.5 84.7%
btts
yes 23.8% no 76.3%
total_exact
exact_0 26.1% exact_1 35.1% exact_2 23.5%
exact_3 10.5% exact_4plus 4.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.5% draw 37.3% away 31.3%
total
over_0.5 76.9% under_0.5 23.1% over_1.5 43.1%
under_1.5 56.9% over_2.5 18.3% under_2.5 81.7%
btts
yes 27.0% no 73.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 20.1% H/D 4.8% H/A 2.0%
D/H 12.3% D/D 14.6% D/A 12.3%
A/H 2.4% A/D 5.8% A/A 25.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 72.8% under_7.5 27.2% over_8.5 61.1%
under_8.5 38.9% over_9.5 48.9% under_9.5 51.1%
over_10.5 37.3% under_10.5 62.7% over_11.5 27.0%
under_11.5 73.0% over_12.5 18.6% under_12.5 81.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.7% under_3.5 25.3% over_4.5 59.7%
under_4.5 40.4% over_5.5 44.4% under_5.5 55.6%
team_away
over_3.5 58.6% under_3.5 41.4% over_4.5 41.2%
under_4.5 58.8% over_5.5 26.6% under_5.5 73.4%
most
home 56.8% draw 10.5% away 32.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.7% away_+3.5 74.3% home_-1.5 45.8%
away_+1.5 54.2% home_-0.5 56.8% away_+0.5 43.2%
home_+0.5 67.3% away_-0.5 32.7% home_+1.5 76.6%
away_-1.5 23.4% home_+3.5 89.9% away_-3.5 10.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 71.2% under_22.5 28.8% over_24.5 59.8%
under_24.5 40.2% over_26.5 47.7% under_26.5 52.3%
over_28.5 36.2% under_28.5 63.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 77.0% under_10.5 23.1% over_12.5 61.9%
under_12.5 38.2% over_14.5 45.8% under_14.5 54.2%
team_away
over_10.5 61.7% under_10.5 38.3% over_12.5 44.0%
under_12.5 56.0% over_14.5 28.4% under_14.5 71.6%
most
home 59.6% draw 5.8% away 34.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.6% away_+4.5 64.4% home_-2.5 47.5%
away_+2.5 52.5% home_-0.5 59.6% away_+0.5 40.4%
home_+0.5 65.4% away_-0.5 34.6% home_+2.5 75.8%
away_-2.5 24.2% home_+4.5 84.3% away_-4.5 15.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 82.9% under_6.5 17.1% over_7.5 73.4%
under_7.5 26.6% over_8.5 62.5% under_8.5 37.5%
over_9.5 51.0% under_9.5 49.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.4% under_3.5 27.6% over_4.5 56.6%
under_4.5 43.4% over_5.5 41.0% under_5.5 59.0%
team_away
over_3.5 65.6% under_3.5 34.4% over_4.5 48.6%
under_4.5 51.4% over_5.5 33.1% under_5.5 66.9%
most
home 49.8% draw 11.6% away 38.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.8% away_+2.5 72.2% home_-0.5 49.8%
away_+0.5 50.2% home_+0.5 61.4% away_-0.5 38.6%
home_+2.5 80.9% away_-2.5 19.1%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 75.1% under_2.5 24.9% over_3.5 55.2%
under_3.5 44.8% over_4.5 35.6% under_4.5 64.4%
over_5.5 20.3% under_5.5 79.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 55.9% under_1.5 44.1% over_2.5 29.0%
under_2.5 71.0%
team_away
over_1.5 60.7% under_1.5 39.3% over_2.5 33.7%
under_2.5 66.3%
most
home 36.2% draw 20.8% away 43.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.0% away_+1.5 81.0% home_-0.5 36.2%
away_+0.5 63.8% home_+0.5 57.0% away_-0.5 43.0%
home_+1.5 75.8% away_-1.5 24.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 52.6% under_20.5 47.4% over_22.5 40.5%
under_22.5 59.5% over_24.5 29.6% under_24.5 70.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 53.4% under_9.5 46.6% over_11.5 36.2%
under_11.5 63.8% over_13.5 22.5% under_13.5 77.5%
team_away
over_9.5 59.3% under_9.5 40.7% over_11.5 42.2%
under_11.5 57.8% over_13.5 27.6% under_13.5 72.4%
most
home 42.6% draw 6.3% away 51.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.4% away_+3.5 74.6% home_-0.5 42.6%
away_+0.5 57.4% home_+2.5 61.5% away_-2.5 38.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 12.3% no 87.7%
home
yes 5.1% no 94.9%
away
yes 7.5% no 92.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: M'gladbach predictions · Mainz predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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