Cadiz vs Las Palmas prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Cadiz vs Las Palmas: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

Segunda División
Cadiz

LDDDL

Sat, 12 Sep 202615:15UK
Las Palmas

WWWLD

Model’s top convictions

71%

Over 1.5 goals

70%

Draw or Las Palmas

58%

Cadiz or draw

Fairly pricedOutside trust zone (model prob 0.42, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Las PalmasWin probability
41.9%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals71.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.40
Draw or Las Palmas70.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.43
Cadiz or draw58.1%Good chancePays @ 1.72

Model read

▾

"When model and market disagree on Las Palmas, that gap is the story." The model leans Las Palmas at 42% when Cadiz host Las Palmas in the Segunda División on 12 September 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Our number sits above the market's 37% for Las Palmas. The gap itself is information. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 45% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. The run in: Cadiz arrive W1 D3 L2, Las Palmas W3 D2 L1. The recent series reads 3 wins for Cadiz, 0 draws and 2 for Las Palmas over 5 games, 2.4 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (outside trust zone (model prob 0.42, zone (0.45, 0.7))).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals44.9%@ 2.23
Over 9.5 corners42.9%@ 2.33
Las Palmas win41.9%@ 2.39
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals55.1%@ 1.81
Over 8.5 corners54.0%@ 1.85
Both teams to score50.5%@ 1.98
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.4%@ 7.46
0-1 correct score10.9%@ 9.21
0-0 correct score9.1%@ 10.99

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Cadiz

29.9%-5.2%

Draw

28.2%-0.1%

Las Palmas

41.9%+5.3%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.42, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.571.3%

Strong chance

Over 2.544.9%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes50.5%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.554.0%

Good chance

Over 9.542.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.532.8%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.2%

Low chance

Most cornersCadiz51.2%Las Palmas37.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.562.0%

Strong chance

Over 24.549.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.536.6%

Toss-up

Over 28.525.7%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Cadiz10.7 taken13.0 faced
Las Palmas7.8 taken12.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.3%2.544.9%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.571.3%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.42, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Form & head-to-head

CadizLDDDL
Las PalmasWWWLD

Last 5 meetings: Cadiz 3 · 0 draws · Las Palmas 2 · 2.4 goals/game.

2026-04-27Cadiz 1-2 Las Palmas
2025-10-05Las Palmas 1-0 Cadiz
2020-02-08Las Palmas 1-2 Cadiz
2019-10-18Cadiz 2-0 Las Palmas
2019-04-14Las Palmas 0-3 Cadiz

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

CadizLas Palmas
League position#18 of 22#10 of 22
Record W-D-L0-3-12-1-1
Current streakL1D1
Record, home vs away0-2-01-0-1
Red cards this season01

League averages this season: 2.27 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 39% · BTTS in 39%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Cadiz win2.653.34
Draw3.253.55
Las Palmas win2.552.39
Over 2.5 goals2.052.23
Under 2.5 goals1.751.81

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Cadiz win3.35
Draw3.55
Las Palmas win2.39
Both teams to score1.98

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.40
Over 2.5 goals2.23
Over 3.5 goals4.23
Cadiz most3.35
Las Palmas most2.39

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.47
Over 8.5 corners1.79
Over 9.5 corners2.31
Over 10.5 corners3.14
Cadiz most1.95
Las Palmas most2.68

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.21
Over 3.5 cards1.52
Over 4.5 cards2.13
Over 5.5 cards3.36
Cadiz most2.05
Las Palmas most3.10

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.38
Over 7.5 SoT1.67
Over 8.5 SoT2.15
Over 9.5 SoT2.93
Cadiz most2.23
Las Palmas most2.39

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.61
Over 24.5 shots2.04
Over 26.5 shots2.73
Over 28.5 shots3.89
Cadiz most1.64
Las Palmas most3.04

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.19
Over 22.5 fouls1.35
Over 24.5 fouls1.62
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 62.0% Over 24.5 49.1% Over 26.5 36.6% Over 28.5 25.7%
Most: Cadiz 60.9% Most: Las Palmas 32.9%
Cadiz Over 13.2 46.8% Las Palmas Over 13.2 27.3%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 72.5% Over 7.5 59.7% Over 8.5 46.5% Over 9.5 34.1%
Most: Cadiz 44.8% Most: Las Palmas 41.8%
Cadiz Over 4.2 42.2% Las Palmas Over 4.2 40.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 82.7% Over 3.5 65.8% Over 4.5 46.9%
Most: Cadiz 48.7% Most: Las Palmas 32.3%
Cadiz Over 1.8 70.8% Las Palmas Over 1.8 60.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Cadiz clean sheet 25.6%
Las Palmas clean sheet 32.9%
Cadiz win to nil 16.5%
Las Palmas win to nil 23.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 29.9% draw 28.2% away 41.9%
double_chance
1X 58.1% 12 71.8% X2 70.1%
dnb
home 41.6% away 58.4%
btts
yes 50.5% no 49.5%
clean_sheet
home 25.6% away 33.0%
win_to_nil
home 16.5% away 23.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1 17.8% home_by_2 8.4% home_by_3plus 3.7%
away_by_1 22.0% away_by_2 12.6% away_by_3plus 7.3%
correct_score
0-0 9.1% 0-1 10.9% 0-2 7.8%
0-3 3.6% 0-4 1.2% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 8.7% 1-1 13.4% 1-2 8.7%
1-3 3.9% 1-4 1.3% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 5.2% 2-1 7.1% 2-2 4.8%
2-3 2.2% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 1.9% 3-1 2.6% 3-2 1.8%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.5% 4-1 0.7% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.9% under_0.5 9.1% over_1.5 71.3%
under_1.5 28.7% over_2.5 44.9% under_2.5 55.1%
over_3.5 23.6% under_3.5 76.4% over_4.5 10.5%
under_4.5 89.5% over_5.5 4.0% under_5.5 96.0%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 67.0% under_0.5 33.0% over_1.5 30.5%
under_1.5 69.5% over_2.5 10.2% under_2.5 89.8%
team_away
over_0.5 74.4% under_0.5 25.6% over_1.5 39.5%
under_1.5 60.5% over_2.5 15.7% under_2.5 84.3%
most
home 29.9% draw 28.2% away 41.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 3.7% away_+2.5 96.3% home_-1.5 12.0%
away_+1.5 88.0% home_-0.5 29.9% away_+0.5 70.1%
home_+0.5 58.1% away_-0.5 41.9% home_+1.5 80.1%
away_-1.5 19.9% home_+2.5 92.7% away_-2.5 7.3%
total_exact
exact_0 9.1% exact_1 19.6% exact_2 26.4%
exact_3 21.2% exact_4 13.1% exact_5 6.5%
exact_6 2.7% exact_7plus 1.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 17.3% draw 41.1% away 41.6%
total
over_0.5 69.2% under_0.5 30.8% over_1.5 32.9%
under_1.5 67.1% over_2.5 11.6% under_2.5 88.4%
btts
yes 17.8% no 82.2%
total_exact
exact_0 30.8% exact_1 36.3% exact_2 21.4%
exact_3 8.4% exact_4plus 3.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.0% draw 38.6% away 27.4%
total
over_0.5 74.7% under_0.5 25.3% over_1.5 40.0%
under_1.5 60.0% over_2.5 16.1% under_2.5 83.9%
btts
yes 24.6% no 75.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 13.2% H/D 3.0% H/A 1.1%
D/H 14.0% D/D 15.9% D/A 11.3%
A/H 3.2% A/D 7.5% A/A 30.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 68.1% under_7.5 31.9% over_8.5 55.7%
under_8.5 44.3% over_9.5 43.3% under_9.5 56.7%
over_10.5 31.9% under_10.5 68.1% over_11.5 22.3%
under_11.5 77.7% over_12.5 14.8% under_12.5 85.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.8% under_3.5 31.2% over_4.5 52.4%
under_4.5 47.6% over_5.5 36.9% under_5.5 63.1%
team_away
over_3.5 59.2% under_3.5 40.8% over_4.5 41.7%
under_4.5 58.3% over_5.5 27.0% under_5.5 73.0%
most
home 51.3% draw 11.3% away 37.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.6% away_+3.5 79.4% home_-1.5 40.0%
away_+1.5 60.0% home_-0.5 51.3% away_+0.5 48.7%
home_+0.5 62.6% away_-0.5 37.4% home_+1.5 72.9%
away_-1.5 27.1% home_+3.5 88.1% away_-3.5 11.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 62.0% under_22.5 38.0% over_24.5 49.1%
under_24.5 50.9% over_26.5 36.6% under_26.5 63.4%
over_28.5 25.7% under_28.5 74.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.4% under_10.5 27.6% over_12.5 55.5%
under_12.5 44.6% over_14.5 38.6% under_14.5 61.4%
team_away
over_10.5 53.8% under_10.5 46.2% over_12.5 35.3%
under_12.5 64.7% over_14.5 20.6% under_14.5 79.4%
most
home 60.9% draw 6.2% away 32.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.2% away_+4.5 64.8% home_-2.5 47.9%
away_+2.5 52.1% home_-0.5 60.9% away_+0.5 39.1%
home_+0.5 67.1% away_-0.5 32.9% home_+2.5 78.0%
away_-2.5 22.1% home_+4.5 86.4% away_-4.5 13.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 72.5% under_6.5 27.5% over_7.5 59.7%
under_7.5 40.3% over_8.5 46.5% under_8.5 53.6%
over_9.5 34.1% under_9.5 65.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 60.8% under_3.5 39.2% over_4.5 42.2%
under_4.5 57.8% over_5.5 26.4% under_5.5 73.6%
team_away
over_3.5 58.8% under_3.5 41.3% over_4.5 40.0%
under_4.5 60.0% over_5.5 24.5% under_5.5 75.5%
most
home 44.8% draw 13.5% away 41.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 21.0% away_+2.5 79.0% home_-0.5 44.8%
away_+0.5 55.2% home_+0.5 58.2% away_-0.5 41.8%
home_+2.5 81.1% away_-2.5 18.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 82.7% under_2.5 17.3% over_3.5 65.8%
under_3.5 34.2% over_4.5 46.9% under_4.5 53.1%
over_5.5 29.8% under_5.5 70.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 70.8% under_1.5 29.2% over_2.5 45.1%
under_2.5 54.9%
team_away
over_1.5 60.1% under_1.5 39.9% over_2.5 33.0%
under_2.5 67.0%
most
home 48.7% draw 19.0% away 32.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 30.2% away_+1.5 69.8% home_-0.5 48.7%
away_+0.5 51.3% home_+0.5 67.7% away_-0.5 32.3%
home_+1.5 82.8% away_-1.5 17.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 84.3% under_20.5 15.8% over_22.5 74.1%
under_22.5 25.9% over_24.5 61.7% under_24.5 38.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 87.0% under_9.5 13.0% over_11.5 73.3%
under_11.5 26.7% over_13.5 56.0% under_13.5 44.0%
team_away
over_9.5 72.7% under_9.5 27.3% over_11.5 53.2%
under_11.5 46.8% over_13.5 34.3% under_13.5 65.7%
most
home 61.9% draw 6.2% away 31.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 41.9% away_+3.5 58.1% home_-0.5 61.9%
away_+0.5 38.1% home_+2.5 79.1% away_-2.5 20.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.7% no 86.3%
home
yes 8.4% no 91.6%
away
yes 5.8% no 94.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Cadiz predictions · Las Palmas predictions · Segunda División

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Segunda DivisiónCadizLas PalmasTrack record