St. Gilloise vs Lommel SK prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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St. Gilloise vs Lommel SK: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Pro League
St. Gilloise

WDWWW

Sat, 12 Sep 202619:45UK
Lommel SK

DLWWL

Model’s top convictions

92%

St. Gilloise or draw

80%

Over 1.5 goals

62%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.024 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
St. GilloiseWin probability
74.5%
Top 3 convictions

St. Gilloise or draw91.7%High probabilityPays @ 1.09
Over 1.5 goals79.5%High probabilityPays @ 1.26
Over 8.5 corners62.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.61

Model read

▾

Few Pro League fixtures are this lopsided in the data: St. Gilloise carry a 74% win probability against Lommel SK on 12 September 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing St. Gilloise at 78%. Caution noted. 2) No strong lean on goals (56% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) Lommel SK are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The run in: St. Gilloise arrive W5 D1 L0, Lommel SK W2 D1 L2. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.024 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners40.9%@ 2.44
Over 11.5 corners31.5%@ 3.17
Medium risk

Not both teams to score57.2%@ 1.75
Over 2.5 goals56.2%@ 1.78
Over 9.5 corners51.3%@ 1.95
Random finds

2-0 correct score14.0%@ 7.14
1-0 correct score11.8%@ 8.47
3-0 correct score10.7%@ 9.32

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

St. Gilloise

74.5%-3.7%

Draw

17.2%+2.4%

Lommel SK

8.3%+1.3%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.024 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.579.5%

High probability

Over 2.556.2%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes42.8%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.562.1%

Strong chance

Over 9.551.3%

Good chance

Over 10.540.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.531.5%

Toss-up

Most cornersSt. Gilloise60.3%Lommel SK29.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.567.3%

Strong chance

Over 24.555.6%

Good chance

Over 26.543.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.532.5%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

St. Gilloise15.7 taken11.7 faced
Lommel SK10.2 taken20.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.579.5%2.556.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.579.5%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.024 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

St. GilloiseWDWWW
Lommel SKDLWWL

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

St. GilloiseLommel SK
League position#2 of 18#9 of 18
Record W-D-L4-1-02-1-2
Current streakW3L1
Points per game2.601.40
Record, home vs away1-1-01-1-0
Goals scored per game2.801.20
Goals conceded per game0.600.60
1st half goals per game1.200.60
2nd half goals per game1.600.60
Corners won per game5.03.0
Cards per game2.01.0
Fouls per game12.07.4
Red cards this season00
Shots per game14.410.2
Shots faced per game12.220.8
Shots on target per game6.62.6
Over 2.5 rate

80.0%20.0%

BTTS rate

40.0%20.0%

Clean sheets

60.0%40.0%

Rates this season:St. GilloiseLommel SK

League averages this season: 3.07 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 42%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
St. Gilloise win1.201.34
Draw5.505.81
Lommel SK win10.0012.05
Over 2.5 goals1.441.78
Under 2.5 goals2.702.28

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

St. Gilloise win1.34
Draw5.80
Lommel SK win12.08
Both teams to score2.34

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.26
Over 2.5 goals1.78
Over 3.5 goals2.96
St. Gilloise most1.34
Lommel SK most12.08

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.32
Over 8.5 corners1.54
Over 9.5 corners1.89
Over 10.5 corners2.44
St. Gilloise most1.65
Lommel SK most3.40

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.40
Over 3.5 cards1.97
Over 4.5 cards3.15
Over 5.5 cards5.69
St. Gilloise most2.98
Lommel SK most2.21

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.40
Over 7.5 SoT1.69
Over 8.5 SoT2.13
Over 9.5 SoT2.83
St. Gilloise most1.53
Lommel SK most4.20

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.49
Over 24.5 shots1.80
Over 26.5 shots2.29
Over 28.5 shots3.08
St. Gilloise most1.46
Lommel SK most3.80

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.74
Over 22.5 fouls2.34
Over 24.5 fouls3.40
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 67.3% Over 24.5 55.6% Over 26.5 43.7% Over 28.5 32.5%
Most: St. Gilloise 68.5% Most: Lommel SK 26.3%
St. Gilloise Over 13.2 57.2% Lommel SK Over 13.2 26.7%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 71.3% Over 7.5 59.2% Over 8.5 46.9% Over 9.5 35.3%
Most: St. Gilloise 65.1% Most: Lommel SK 23.8%
St. Gilloise Over 4.2 56.0% Lommel SK Over 4.2 25.6%

Cards

Over 2.5 71.4% Over 3.5 50.8% Over 4.5 31.8%
Most: St. Gilloise 33.6% Most: Lommel SK 45.3%
St. Gilloise Over 1.8 50.7% Lommel SK Over 1.8 59.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

St. Gilloise clean sheet 51.2%
Lommel SK clean sheet 10.0%
St. Gilloise win to nil 45.5%
Lommel SK win to nil 4.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 74.5% draw 17.2% away 8.3%
double_chance
1X 91.7% 12 82.8% X2 25.5%
dnb
home 90.0% away 10.0%
btts
yes 42.8% no 57.2%
clean_sheet
home 52.8% away 10.1%
win_to_nil
home 47.1% away 4.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.2% home_by_2 22.2% home_by_3plus 29.0%
away_by_1 6.2% away_by_2 1.7% away_by_3plus 0.4%
correct_score
0-0 5.7% 0-1 3.0% 0-2 1.1%
0-3 0.2% 0-4 0.0% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 11.8% 1-1 8.2% 1-2 2.5%
1-3 0.5% 1-4 0.1% 1-5 0.0%
2-0 14.0% 2-1 8.9% 2-2 2.9%
2-3 0.6% 2-4 0.1% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 10.7% 3-1 6.8% 3-2 2.2%
3-3 0.5% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 6.2% 4-1 3.9% 4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 2.8% 5-1 1.8% 5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 3.0%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 0.0% p 14.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.3% under_0.5 5.7% over_1.5 79.5%
under_1.5 20.5% over_2.5 56.2% under_2.5 43.8%
over_3.5 33.8% under_3.5 66.2% over_4.5 17.4%
under_4.5 82.6% over_5.5 7.8% under_5.5 92.3%
odd_even
odd 49.1% even 50.9%
team_home
over_0.5 89.9% under_0.5 10.1% over_1.5 66.8%
under_1.5 33.2% over_2.5 40.3% under_2.5 59.7%
team_away
over_0.5 47.2% under_0.5 52.8% over_1.5 13.5%
under_1.5 86.5% over_2.5 2.7% under_2.5 97.3%
most
home 74.5% draw 17.2% away 8.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.0% away_+2.5 71.0% home_-1.5 51.2%
away_+1.5 48.8% home_-0.5 74.5% away_+0.5 25.5%
home_+0.5 91.7% away_-0.5 8.3% home_+1.5 97.9%
away_-1.5 2.1% home_+2.5 99.6% away_-2.5 0.4%
total_exact
exact_0 5.7% exact_1 14.8% exact_2 23.3%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.4% exact_5 9.6%
exact_6 4.7% exact_7plus 3.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.5% draw 45.5% away 19.0%
total
over_0.5 63.8% under_0.5 36.2% over_1.5 27.0%
under_1.5 73.0% over_2.5 8.3% under_2.5 91.7%
btts
yes 15.0% no 85.0%
total_exact
exact_0 36.2% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 18.7%
exact_3 6.3% exact_4plus 2.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 44.5% draw 40.9% away 14.7%
total
over_0.5 68.6% under_0.5 31.5% over_1.5 32.2%
under_1.5 67.8% over_2.5 11.1% under_2.5 88.9%
btts
yes 16.2% no 83.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 31.5% H/D 3.4% H/A 0.6%
D/H 20.2% D/D 18.6% D/A 6.7%
A/H 2.5% A/D 4.9% A/A 11.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.0% under_7.5 24.0% over_8.5 64.9%
under_8.5 35.2% over_9.5 52.8% under_9.5 47.2%
over_10.5 41.0% under_10.5 59.0% over_11.5 30.3%
under_11.5 69.7% over_12.5 21.3% under_12.5 78.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 78.6% under_3.5 21.4% over_4.5 64.6%
under_4.5 35.4% over_5.5 49.6% under_5.5 50.4%
team_away
over_3.5 58.4% under_3.5 41.6% over_4.5 40.9%
under_4.5 59.1% over_5.5 26.2% under_5.5 73.8%
most
home 60.5% draw 10.1% away 29.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.2% away_+3.5 70.9% home_-1.5 49.7%
away_+1.5 50.3% home_-0.5 60.5% away_+0.5 39.5%
home_+0.5 70.6% away_-0.5 29.4% home_+1.5 79.3%
away_-1.5 20.7% home_+3.5 91.3% away_-3.5 8.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 67.3% under_22.5 32.7% over_24.5 55.6%
under_24.5 44.4% over_26.5 43.7% under_26.5 56.3%
over_28.5 32.5% under_28.5 67.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 78.9% under_10.5 21.1% over_12.5 64.9%
under_12.5 35.1% over_14.5 49.6% under_14.5 50.4%
team_away
over_10.5 51.3% under_10.5 48.7% over_12.5 34.0%
under_12.5 66.0% over_14.5 20.4% under_14.5 79.6%
most
home 68.5% draw 5.2% away 26.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 45.0% away_+4.5 55.0% home_-2.5 57.0%
away_+2.5 43.0% home_-0.5 68.5% away_+0.5 31.5%
home_+0.5 73.7% away_-0.5 26.4% home_+2.5 82.5%
away_-2.5 17.5% home_+4.5 89.2% away_-4.5 10.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 71.3% under_6.5 28.7% over_7.5 59.2%
under_7.5 40.8% over_8.5 46.9% under_8.5 53.1%
over_9.5 35.3% under_9.5 64.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.7% under_3.5 28.3% over_4.5 56.0%
under_4.5 44.0% over_5.5 40.6% under_5.5 59.4%
team_away
over_3.5 42.4% under_3.5 57.6% over_4.5 25.6%
under_4.5 74.4% over_5.5 14.1% under_5.5 85.9%
most
home 65.1% draw 11.1% away 23.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 40.2% away_+2.5 59.8% home_-0.5 65.1%
away_+0.5 34.8% home_+0.5 76.2% away_-0.5 23.8%
home_+2.5 91.3% away_-2.5 8.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 71.4% under_2.5 28.6% over_3.5 50.8%
under_3.5 49.2% over_4.5 31.8% under_4.5 68.2%
over_5.5 17.6% under_5.5 82.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 50.7% under_1.5 49.3% over_2.5 24.7%
under_2.5 75.3%
team_away
over_1.5 59.2% under_1.5 40.8% over_2.5 32.6%
under_2.5 67.4%
most
home 33.6% draw 21.1% away 45.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.0% away_+1.5 83.1% home_-0.5 33.6%
away_+0.5 66.4% home_+0.5 54.7% away_-0.5 45.3%
home_+1.5 74.2% away_-1.5 25.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 57.5% under_20.5 42.5% over_22.5 42.8%
under_22.5 57.2% over_24.5 29.4% under_24.5 70.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 64.0% under_9.5 36.0% over_11.5 43.2%
under_11.5 56.8% over_13.5 25.4% under_13.5 74.6%
team_away
over_9.5 59.6% under_9.5 40.4% over_11.5 38.6%
under_11.5 61.4% over_13.5 21.6% under_13.5 78.4%
most
home 49.5% draw 7.5% away 43.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.2% away_+3.5 71.8% home_-0.5 49.5%
away_+0.5 50.5% home_+2.5 71.0% away_-2.5 29.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 10.2% no 89.8%
home
yes 2.8% no 97.2%
away
yes 7.6% no 92.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: St. Gilloise predictions · Lommel SK predictions · Pro League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Pro LeagueSt. GilloiseLommel SKTrack record