Asteras Tripolis vs AEK prediction & probabilities (2026-09-13)

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Asteras Tripolis vs AEK: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 13 Sep 2026

Super League Greece
Asteras Tripolis

DWLLL

Sun, 13 Sep 202617:00UK
AEK

DDWDW

Model’s top convictions

83%

Draw or AEK

70%

Over 1.5 goals

56%

Under 2.5 goals

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.10).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
AEKWin probability
57.3%
Top 3 convictions

Draw or AEK82.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.21
Over 1.5 goals70.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.42
Under 2.5 goals56.1%Good chancePays @ 1.78

Model read

▾

AEK go into this Super League Greece meeting with Asteras Tripolis on 13 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 57%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Worth knowing: bookmakers rate AEK higher (70%) than our model does. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 44% with both teams to score at 44%. 3) The run in: Asteras Tripolis arrive W2 D1 L3, AEK W3 D3 L0. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Asteras Tripolis, 0 draws and 5 for AEK, averaging 2.8 goals a game. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals43.9%@ 2.28
Asteras Tripolis or draw42.7%@ 2.34
Over 9.5 corners39.4%@ 2.54
Medium risk

Not both teams to score55.6%@ 1.80
Over 8.5 corners49.8%@ 2.01
Random finds

0-1 correct score13.9%@ 7.19
0-2 correct score11.9%@ 8.38
1-1 correct score11.9%@ 8.41

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Tripolis

17.2%+7.6%

Draw

25.5%+4.8%

AEK

57.3%-12.4%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.570.4%

Strong chance

Over 2.543.9%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes44.4%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.549.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.539.4%

Toss-up

Over 10.530.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.522.3%

Low chance

Most cornersAsteras Tripolis50.3%AEK38.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.548.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 24.537.4%

Toss-up

Over 26.527.3%

Low chance

Over 28.519.0%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Asteras Tripolis13.5 taken9.3 faced
AEK15.8 taken11.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.570.4%2.543.9%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.570.4%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10).

Form & head-to-head

Asteras TripolisDWLLL
AEKDDWDW

Last 5 meetings: Asteras Tripolis 0 · 0 draws · AEK 5 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-01-24Asteras Tripolis 0-1 AEK
2025-08-31AEK 1-0 Asteras Tripolis
2025-02-23Asteras Tripolis 0-3 AEK
2024-11-09AEK 3-0 Asteras Tripolis
2024-02-04AEK 4-2 Asteras Tripolis

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Asteras TripolisAEK
League position#13 of 14#3 of 14
Record W-D-L0-0-32-1-0
Current streakL3W1
Record, home vs away0-0-20-1-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.76 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 43% · BTTS in 48%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Asteras Tripolis win8.505.81
Draw4.333.92
AEK win1.371.75
Over 2.5 goals1.902.28
Under 2.5 goals1.901.78

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Asteras Tripolis win5.81
Draw3.92
AEK win1.74
Both teams to score2.25

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.42
Over 2.5 goals2.28
Over 3.5 goals4.38
Asteras Tripolis most5.81
AEK most1.74

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.56
Over 8.5 corners1.94
Over 9.5 corners2.54
Over 10.5 corners3.51
Asteras Tripolis most1.98
AEK most2.59

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.14
Over 3.5 cards1.35
Over 4.5 cards1.76
Over 5.5 cards2.54
Asteras Tripolis most2.75
AEK most2.20

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.57
Over 7.5 SoT1.94
Over 8.5 SoT2.50
Over 9.5 SoT3.36
Asteras Tripolis most2.26
AEK most2.31

Shots

Over 22.5 shots2.05
Over 24.5 shots2.68
Over 26.5 shots3.66
Over 28.5 shots5.27
Asteras Tripolis most1.79
AEK most2.62

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.09
Over 22.5 fouls1.18
Over 24.5 fouls1.33
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 48.7% Over 24.5 37.4% Over 26.5 27.3% Over 28.5 19.0%
Most: Asteras Tripolis 56.0% Most: AEK 38.1%
Asteras Tripolis Over 13.2 36.2% AEK Over 13.2 24.5%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 63.8% Over 7.5 51.7% Over 8.5 40.0% Over 9.5 29.7%
Most: Asteras Tripolis 44.3% Most: AEK 43.2%
Asteras Tripolis Over 4.2 36.9% AEK Over 4.2 36.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 88.0% Over 3.5 74.3% Over 4.5 57.0%
Most: Asteras Tripolis 36.3% Most: AEK 45.6%
Asteras Tripolis Over 1.8 69.1% AEK Over 1.8 74.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Asteras Tripolis clean sheet 19.3%
AEK clean sheet 45.4%
Asteras Tripolis win to nil 9.9%
AEK win to nil 36.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 17.2% draw 25.5% away 57.3%
double_chance
1X 42.7% 12 74.5% X2 82.8%
dnb
home 23.1% away 76.9%
btts
yes 44.4% no 55.6%
clean_sheet
home 19.3% away 45.7%
win_to_nil
home 9.9% away 36.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 11.9% home_by_2 4.1% home_by_3plus 1.2%
away_by_1 25.5% away_by_2 17.9% away_by_3plus 13.9%
correct_score
0-0 9.4% 0-1 13.9% 0-2 11.9%
0-3 6.6% 0-4 2.7% 0-5 0.9%
1-0 6.3% 1-1 11.9% 1-2 9.3%
1-3 5.1% 1-4 2.1% 1-5 0.7%
2-0 2.7% 2-1 4.5% 2-2 3.7%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 0.7% 3-1 1.2% 3-2 1.0%
3-3 0.5% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.2% 4-1 0.2% 4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.0% 5-1 0.0% 5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 0.0% a 100.0% p 13.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.6% under_0.5 9.4% over_1.5 70.4%
under_1.5 29.6% over_2.5 43.9% under_2.5 56.1%
over_3.5 22.8% under_3.5 77.2% over_4.5 10.0%
under_4.5 90.0% over_5.5 3.8% under_5.5 96.2%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 54.3% under_0.5 45.7% over_1.5 18.7%
under_1.5 81.4% over_2.5 4.6% under_2.5 95.4%
team_away
over_0.5 80.7% under_0.5 19.3% over_1.5 49.0%
under_1.5 51.0% over_2.5 22.9% under_2.5 77.1%
most
home 17.2% draw 25.5% away 57.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 1.2% away_+2.5 98.8% home_-1.5 5.3%
away_+1.5 94.7% home_-0.5 17.2% away_+0.5 82.8%
home_+0.5 42.7% away_-0.5 57.3% home_+1.5 68.1%
away_-1.5 31.9% home_+2.5 86.1% away_-2.5 13.9%
total_exact
exact_0 9.4% exact_1 20.2% exact_2 26.5%
exact_3 21.1% exact_4 12.8% exact_5 6.2%
exact_6 2.5% exact_7plus 1.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 13.8% draw 45.7% away 40.4%
total
over_0.5 62.1% under_0.5 37.9% over_1.5 25.3%
under_1.5 74.7% over_2.5 7.5% under_2.5 92.5%
btts
yes 12.3% no 87.7%
total_exact
exact_0 37.9% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 17.8%
exact_3 5.8% exact_4plus 1.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 15.9% draw 35.8% away 48.3%
total
over_0.5 75.6% under_0.5 24.4% over_1.5 41.2%
under_1.5 58.8% over_2.5 16.9% under_2.5 83.1%
btts
yes 21.8% no 78.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 7.7% H/D 3.8% H/A 2.4%
D/H 7.3% D/D 16.4% D/A 22.1%
A/H 0.9% A/D 3.9% A/A 35.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 64.2% under_7.5 35.8% over_8.5 51.6%
under_8.5 48.4% over_9.5 39.4% under_9.5 60.6%
over_10.5 28.5% under_10.5 71.5% over_11.5 19.6%
under_11.5 80.4% over_12.5 12.8% under_12.5 87.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 65.0% under_3.5 35.0% over_4.5 48.8%
under_4.5 51.2% over_5.5 34.1% under_5.5 65.9%
team_away
over_3.5 56.4% under_3.5 43.6% over_4.5 39.6%
under_4.5 60.4% over_5.5 25.7% under_5.5 74.3%
most
home 50.5% draw 11.0% away 38.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.8% away_+3.5 79.2% home_-1.5 39.5%
away_+1.5 60.5% home_-0.5 50.5% away_+0.5 49.5%
home_+0.5 61.5% away_-0.5 38.6% home_+1.5 71.5%
away_-1.5 28.5% home_+3.5 86.8% away_-3.5 13.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 48.7% under_22.5 51.3% over_24.5 37.4%
under_24.5 62.6% over_26.5 27.3% under_26.5 72.7%
over_28.5 19.0% under_28.5 81.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 59.4% under_10.5 40.6% over_12.5 43.5%
under_12.5 56.5% over_14.5 29.5% under_14.5 70.5%
team_away
over_10.5 46.8% under_10.5 53.2% over_12.5 31.0%
under_12.5 69.0% over_14.5 19.0% under_14.5 81.0%
most
home 56.0% draw 5.9% away 38.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.4% away_+4.5 67.6% home_-2.5 43.9%
away_+2.5 56.1% home_-0.5 56.0% away_+0.5 44.0%
home_+0.5 61.9% away_-0.5 38.1% home_+2.5 72.8%
away_-2.5 27.2% home_+4.5 81.8% away_-4.5 18.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 63.8% under_6.5 36.2% over_7.5 51.7%
under_7.5 48.4% over_8.5 40.0% under_8.5 60.0%
over_9.5 29.7% under_9.5 70.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 53.2% under_3.5 46.9% over_4.5 36.9%
under_4.5 63.1% over_5.5 23.9% under_5.5 76.1%
team_away
over_3.5 52.4% under_3.5 47.6% over_4.5 36.1%
under_4.5 63.9% over_5.5 23.2% under_5.5 76.8%
most
home 44.3% draw 12.5% away 43.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 22.3% away_+2.5 77.7% home_-0.5 44.3%
away_+0.5 55.7% home_+0.5 56.8% away_-0.5 43.2%
home_+2.5 78.5% away_-2.5 21.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 88.0% under_2.5 12.0% over_3.5 74.3%
under_3.5 25.7% over_4.5 57.0% under_4.5 43.0%
over_5.5 39.4% under_5.5 60.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 69.1% under_1.5 30.9% over_2.5 42.9%
under_2.5 57.1%
team_away
over_1.5 74.5% under_1.5 25.5% over_2.5 49.7%
under_2.5 50.3%
most
home 36.3% draw 18.1% away 45.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.9% away_+1.5 79.1% home_-0.5 36.3%
away_+0.5 63.7% home_+0.5 54.4% away_-0.5 45.6%
home_+1.5 71.5% away_-1.5 28.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 91.6% under_20.5 8.4% over_22.5 84.7%
under_22.5 15.3% over_24.5 75.2% under_24.5 24.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 83.9% under_9.5 16.1% over_11.5 68.4%
under_11.5 31.6% over_13.5 50.1% under_13.5 49.9%
team_away
over_9.5 90.0% under_9.5 10.0% over_11.5 78.2%
under_11.5 21.8% over_13.5 62.1% under_13.5 37.9%
most
home 38.3% draw 6.3% away 55.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.6% away_+3.5 78.4% home_-0.5 38.3%
away_+0.5 61.7% home_+2.5 57.5% away_-2.5 42.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 19.0% no 81.1%
home
yes 12.8% no 87.2%
away
yes 7.0% no 93.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Asteras Tripolis predictions · AEK predictions · Super League Greece

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Super League GreeceAsteras TripolisAEKTrack record