Moreirense vs Maritimo prediction & probabilities (2026-09-14)

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Moreirense vs Maritimo: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 13 Sep 2026

Primeira Liga
Moreirense

DLWLL

Mon, 14 Sep 202620:15UK
Maritimo

WWDLL

Model’s top convictions

72%

Over 1.5 goals

70%

Moreirense or draw

58%

Draw or Maritimo

Fairly pricedConservative EV -0.027 <= 0.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
MoreirenseWin probability
42.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals72.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.38
Moreirense or draw70.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.43
Draw or Maritimo57.9%Good chancePays @ 1.73

Model read

▾

"42% on Moreirense is a measurement, not a promise." Moreirense versus Maritimo on 14 September 2026 tilts towards Moreirense in our numbers (42%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Our number sits above the market's 39% for Moreirense. The gap itself is information. Totals sit close to the fence: 46% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. Schedule edge: Maritimo have had 5 more days of rest than Moreirense. Maritimo are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Form guide over the last six: Moreirense W1 D2 L3, Maritimo W2 D1 L3. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Moreirense, 1 draws and 1 for Maritimo at 1.6 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.027 <= 0).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals46.2%@ 2.16
Over 9.5 corners42.2%@ 2.37
Over 10.5 corners33.0%@ 3.03
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals53.8%@ 1.86
Over 8.5 corners52.3%@ 1.91
Both teams to score51.5%@ 1.94
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.3%@ 7.54
1-0 correct score10.5%@ 9.51
2-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.39

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Moreirense

42.2%+3.3%

Draw

27.9%-0.8%

Maritimo

30.0%-2.4%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.027 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.572.4%

Strong chance

Over 2.546.2%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes51.5%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.552.3%

Good chance

Over 9.542.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.533.0%

Toss-up

Over 11.525.1%

Low chance

Most cornersMoreirense48.5%Maritimo40.6%

Shots markets

Over 22.553.7%

Good chance

Over 24.541.5%

Toss-up

Over 26.530.5%

Toss-up

Over 28.521.2%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Moreirense7.7 taken15.5 faced
Maritimo12.0 taken12.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.572.4%2.546.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.572.4%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Conservative EV -0.027 <= 0.

Form & head-to-head

MoreirenseDLWLL
MaritimoWWDLL

Last 5 meetings: Moreirense 3 · 1 draws · Maritimo 1 · 1.6 goals/game.

2022-03-06Moreirense 0-1 Maritimo
2021-10-01Maritimo 0-0 Moreirense
2021-03-07Maritimo 0-2 Moreirense
2020-10-25Moreirense 2-1 Maritimo
2020-03-08Moreirense 2-0 Maritimo

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

MoreirenseMaritimo
League position#13 of 18#9 of 18
Record W-D-L1-1-32-1-2
Current streakL2L2
Points per game0.801.40
Record, home vs away0-1-11-0-1
Goals scored per game0.801.20
Goals conceded per game2.401.60
1st half goals per game0.600.40
2nd half goals per game0.200.80
Corners won per game2.42.6
Cards per game3.61.8
Fouls per game14.215.8
Red cards this season10
Shots per game6.610.8
Shots faced per game17.012.8
Shots on target per game2.43.4
Over 2.5 rate

80.0%80.0%

BTTS rate

40.0%60.0%

Clean sheets

20.0%20.0%

Rates this season:MoreirenseMaritimo

League averages this season: 2.64 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 52% · BTTS in 41%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Moreirense win2.402.37
Draw3.203.58
Maritimo win2.853.33
Over 2.5 goals2.252.16
Under 2.5 goals1.621.86

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Moreirense win2.37
Draw3.59
Maritimo win3.33
Both teams to score1.94

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.38
Over 2.5 goals2.16
Over 3.5 goals4.04
Moreirense most2.37
Maritimo most3.33

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.52
Over 8.5 corners1.85
Over 9.5 corners2.35
Over 10.5 corners3.12
Moreirense most2.06
Maritimo most2.45

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.17
Over 3.5 cards1.43
Over 4.5 cards1.94
Over 5.5 cards2.92
Moreirense most2.28
Maritimo most2.67

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.51
Over 7.5 SoT1.88
Over 8.5 SoT2.48
Over 9.5 SoT3.46
Moreirense most2.27
Maritimo most2.36

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.86
Over 24.5 shots2.41
Over 26.5 shots3.28
Over 28.5 shots4.72
Moreirense most1.84
Maritimo most2.54

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.15
Over 22.5 fouls1.27
Over 24.5 fouls1.47
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 53.6% Over 24.5 41.5% Over 26.5 30.5% Over 28.5 21.2%
Most: Moreirense 54.5% Most: Maritimo 39.4%
Moreirense Over 13.2 37.6% Maritimo Over 13.2 27.6%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.4% Over 7.5 53.2% Over 8.5 40.3% Over 9.5 28.9%
Most: Moreirense 44.1% Most: Maritimo 42.5%
Moreirense Over 4.2 37.4% Maritimo Over 4.2 36.2%

Cards

Over 2.5 85.2% Over 3.5 69.8% Over 4.5 51.6%
Most: Moreirense 43.8% Most: Maritimo 37.5%
Moreirense Over 1.8 70.5% Maritimo Over 1.8 66.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Moreirense clean sheet 32.1%
Maritimo clean sheet 24.9%
Moreirense win to nil 23.5%
Maritimo win to nil 16.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 42.2% draw 27.9% away 30.0%
double_chance
1X 70.0% 12 72.1% X2 57.9%
dnb
home 58.4% away 41.6%
btts
yes 51.5% no 48.5%
clean_sheet
home 32.2% away 24.9%
win_to_nil
home 23.5% away 16.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.9% home_by_2 12.7% home_by_3plus 7.5%
away_by_1 17.8% away_by_2 8.4% away_by_3plus 3.8%
correct_score
0-0 8.7% 0-1 8.5% 0-2 5.1%
0-3 2.0% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.5% 1-1 13.3% 1-2 7.2%
1-3 2.7% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.8% 2-1 8.8% 2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.9% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.6% 3-1 4.1% 3-2 2.3%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.3% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.3% under_0.5 8.7% over_1.5 72.4%
under_1.5 27.6% over_2.5 46.2% under_2.5 53.8%
over_3.5 24.7% under_3.5 75.3% over_4.5 11.2%
under_4.5 88.8% over_5.5 4.4% under_5.5 95.6%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 75.1% under_0.5 24.9% over_1.5 40.5%
under_1.5 59.5% over_2.5 16.4% under_2.5 83.6%
team_away
over_0.5 67.8% under_0.5 32.2% over_1.5 31.3%
under_1.5 68.7% over_2.5 10.6% under_2.5 89.4%
most
home 42.2% draw 27.9% away 30.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.5% away_+2.5 92.5% home_-1.5 20.2%
away_+1.5 79.8% home_-0.5 42.2% away_+0.5 57.9%
home_+0.5 70.0% away_-0.5 30.0% home_+1.5 87.8%
away_-1.5 12.2% home_+2.5 96.2% away_-2.5 3.8%
total_exact
exact_0 8.7% exact_1 19.0% exact_2 26.2%
exact_3 21.5% exact_4 13.5% exact_5 6.8%
exact_6 2.9% exact_7plus 1.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.7% draw 40.4% away 24.0%
total
over_0.5 71.8% under_0.5 28.2% over_1.5 36.2%
under_1.5 63.8% over_2.5 13.5% under_2.5 86.5%
btts
yes 21.6% no 78.4%
total_exact
exact_0 28.2% exact_1 35.7% exact_2 22.6%
exact_3 9.6% exact_4plus 4.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 23.4% draw 38.1% away 38.5%
total
over_0.5 74.9% under_0.5 25.1% over_1.5 40.2%
under_1.5 59.8% over_2.5 16.2% under_2.5 83.8%
btts
yes 24.1% no 75.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 25.0% H/D 7.2% H/A 3.5%
D/H 9.4% D/D 15.4% D/A 15.5%
A/H 1.1% A/D 3.5% A/A 19.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 65.8% under_7.5 34.2% over_8.5 54.1%
under_8.5 45.9% over_9.5 42.6% under_9.5 57.4%
over_10.5 32.1% under_10.5 67.9% over_11.5 23.2%
under_11.5 76.8% over_12.5 16.1% under_12.5 83.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 64.5% under_3.5 35.5% over_4.5 49.0%
under_4.5 51.0% over_5.5 34.9% under_5.5 65.1%
team_away
over_3.5 58.9% under_3.5 41.1% over_4.5 42.9%
under_4.5 57.1% over_5.5 29.2% under_5.5 70.8%
most
home 48.7% draw 10.6% away 40.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.5% away_+3.5 79.5% home_-1.5 38.2%
away_+1.5 61.8% home_-0.5 48.7% away_+0.5 51.3%
home_+0.5 59.3% away_-0.5 40.7% home_+1.5 69.2%
away_-1.5 30.8% home_+3.5 84.8% away_-3.5 15.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 53.7% under_22.5 46.4% over_24.5 41.5%
under_24.5 58.5% over_26.5 30.5% under_26.5 69.5%
over_28.5 21.2% under_28.5 78.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 62.4% under_10.5 37.6% over_12.5 45.5%
under_12.5 54.5% over_14.5 30.5% under_14.5 69.5%
team_away
over_10.5 51.9% under_10.5 48.1% over_12.5 34.9%
under_12.5 65.1% over_14.5 21.3% under_14.5 78.7%
most
home 54.4% draw 6.2% away 39.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 30.3% away_+4.5 69.7% home_-2.5 42.0%
away_+2.5 58.0% home_-0.5 54.4% away_+0.5 45.6%
home_+0.5 60.6% away_-0.5 39.4% home_+2.5 72.0%
away_-2.5 28.0% home_+4.5 81.5% away_-4.5 18.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.4% under_6.5 33.6% over_7.5 53.2%
under_7.5 46.8% over_8.5 40.3% under_8.5 59.7%
over_9.5 28.9% under_9.5 71.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 55.4% under_3.5 44.6% over_4.5 37.4%
under_4.5 62.6% over_5.5 22.9% under_5.5 77.1%
team_away
over_3.5 54.3% under_3.5 45.7% over_4.5 36.2%
under_4.5 63.8% over_5.5 21.9% under_5.5 78.1%
most
home 44.1% draw 13.5% away 42.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 20.5% away_+2.5 79.5% home_-0.5 44.1%
away_+0.5 56.0% home_+0.5 57.6% away_-0.5 42.4%
home_+2.5 80.6% away_-2.5 19.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 85.2% under_2.5 14.8% over_3.5 69.8%
under_3.5 30.2% over_4.5 51.6% under_4.5 48.4%
over_5.5 34.2% under_5.5 65.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 70.5% under_1.5 29.5% over_2.5 44.8%
under_2.5 55.2%
team_away
over_1.5 66.6% under_1.5 33.4% over_2.5 40.1%
under_2.5 59.9%
most
home 43.8% draw 18.7% away 37.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 26.5% away_+1.5 73.5% home_-0.5 43.8%
away_+0.5 56.2% home_+0.5 62.5% away_-0.5 37.5%
home_+1.5 78.5% away_-1.5 21.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 87.3% under_20.5 12.7% over_22.5 78.8%
under_22.5 21.2% over_24.5 68.0% under_24.5 32.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 81.4% under_9.5 18.6% over_11.5 65.6%
under_11.5 34.4% over_13.5 47.9% under_13.5 52.1%
team_away
over_9.5 84.6% under_9.5 15.4% over_11.5 70.4%
under_11.5 29.6% over_13.5 53.3% under_13.5 46.7%
most
home 43.1% draw 6.3% away 50.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.8% away_+3.5 74.2% home_-0.5 43.1%
away_+0.5 56.9% home_+2.5 61.8% away_-2.5 38.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 9.0% no 91.0%
home
yes 6.9% no 93.1%
away
yes 2.2% no 97.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Moreirense predictions · Maritimo predictions · Primeira Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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