Rio Ave vs Estrela prediction & probabilities (2026-09-14)

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Rio Ave vs Estrela: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 13 Sep 2026

Primeira Liga
Rio Ave

LLWLL

Mon, 14 Sep 202618:45UK
Estrela

DDWDW

Model’s top convictions

76%

Over 1.5 goals

66%

Draw or Estrela

61%

Rio Ave or draw

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.010 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
EstrelaWin probability
39.1%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals76.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.31
Draw or Estrela65.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.52
Rio Ave or draw60.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.64

Model read

▾

Rio Ave versus Estrela in the Primeira Liga on 14 September 2026 is finely balanced. Estrela edge it at 39%, but the gap to the field is slim. Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 38%. Totals sit close to the fence: 51% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. Schedule edge: Rio Ave have had 5 more days of rest than Estrela. Recent form reads W1 D1 L4 for Rio Ave against W2 D4 L0 for Estrela. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Rio Ave, 1 draws and 1 for Estrela at 2.6 goals per match. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.010 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners45.7%@ 2.19
Estrela win39.1%@ 2.56
Over 10.5 corners36.3%@ 2.75
Medium risk

Both teams to score56.0%@ 1.79
Over 8.5 corners55.7%@ 1.80
Over 2.5 goals51.4%@ 1.95
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.7%@ 7.86
0-1 correct score8.7%@ 11.55
1-2 correct score8.6%@ 11.60

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Rio Ave

34.0%+0.3%

Draw

26.8%-1.4%

Estrela

39.1%+1.0%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.010 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.576.3%

Strong chance

Over 2.551.4%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes56.0%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.555.7%

Good chance

Over 9.545.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.536.3%

Toss-up

Over 11.528.1%

Low chance

Most cornersRio Ave52.9%Estrela36.7%

Shots markets

Over 22.557.2%

Good chance

Over 24.545.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.533.8%

Toss-up

Over 28.524.0%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Rio Ave6.5 taken15.8 faced
Estrela10.3 taken12.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.3%2.551.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.576.3%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.010 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

Rio AveLLWLL
EstrelaDDWDW

Last 5 meetings: Rio Ave 3 · 1 draws · Estrela 1 · 2.6 goals/game.

2026-03-15Rio Ave 2-1 Estrela
2025-10-25Estrela 1-2 Rio Ave
2025-05-05Rio Ave 2-0 Estrela
2024-12-23Estrela 1-0 Rio Ave
2024-04-14Estrela 2-2 Rio Ave

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Rio AveEstrela
League position#15 of 18#6 of 18
Record W-D-L1-0-42-3-0
Current streakL2W1
Points per game0.601.80
Record, home vs away0-0-21-1-0
Goals scored per game0.402.20
Goals conceded per game2.201.80
1st half goals per game0.200.40
2nd half goals per game0.201.80
Corners won per game3.03.6
Cards per game1.42.4
Fouls per game8.011.4
Red cards this season10
Shots per game6.611.2
Shots faced per game15.012.4
Shots on target per game1.84.8
Over 2.5 rate

40.0%100.0%

BTTS rate

0.0%100.0%

Clean sheets

20.0%0.0%

Rates this season:Rio AveEstrela

League averages this season: 2.64 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 52% · BTTS in 41%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Rio Ave win2.752.94
Draw3.253.73
Estrela win2.452.56
Over 2.5 goals2.051.95
Under 2.5 goals1.752.06

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Rio Ave win2.94
Draw3.73
Estrela win2.55
Both teams to score1.79

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.31
Over 2.5 goals1.95
Over 3.5 goals3.42
Rio Ave most2.94
Estrela most2.55

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.44
Over 8.5 corners1.72
Over 9.5 corners2.15
Over 10.5 corners2.79
Rio Ave most1.89
Estrela most2.72

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.20
Over 3.5 cards1.49
Over 4.5 cards2.07
Over 5.5 cards3.22
Rio Ave most2.66
Estrela most2.31

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.42
Over 7.5 SoT1.74
Over 8.5 SoT2.23
Over 9.5 SoT3.03
Rio Ave most2.25
Estrela most2.36

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.75
Over 24.5 shots2.22
Over 26.5 shots2.96
Over 28.5 shots4.17
Rio Ave most1.74
Estrela most2.74

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.19
Over 22.5 fouls1.35
Over 24.5 fouls1.61
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 57.2% Over 24.5 45.1% Over 26.5 33.8% Over 28.5 24.0%
Most: Rio Ave 57.5% Most: Estrela 36.5%
Rio Ave Over 13.2 42.2% Estrela Over 13.2 27.8%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 70.3% Over 7.5 57.6% Over 8.5 44.8% Over 9.5 33.0%
Most: Rio Ave 44.5% Most: Estrela 42.3%
Rio Ave Over 4.2 40.7% Estrela Over 4.2 39.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 83.4% Over 3.5 66.9% Over 4.5 48.2%
Most: Rio Ave 37.6% Most: Estrela 43.3%
Rio Ave Over 1.8 64.6% Estrela Over 1.8 68.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Rio Ave clean sheet 24.1%
Estrela clean sheet 26.9%
Rio Ave win to nil 17.0%
Estrela win to nil 19.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 34.0% draw 26.8% away 39.2%
double_chance
1X 60.9% 12 73.2% X2 66.0%
dnb
home 46.5% away 53.5%
btts
yes 56.0% no 44.0%
clean_sheet
home 24.2% away 27.0%
win_to_nil
home 17.0% away 19.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.8% home_by_2 10.0% home_by_3plus 5.3%
away_by_1 20.4% away_by_2 11.7% away_by_3plus 7.0%
correct_score
0-0 7.1% 0-1 8.7% 0-2 6.6%
0-3 3.1% 0-4 1.1% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 7.9% 1-1 12.7% 1-2 8.6%
1-3 4.1% 1-4 1.5% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 5.6% 2-1 7.9% 2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.7% 2-4 1.0% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 2.4% 3-1 3.5% 3-2 2.5%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.8% 4-1 1.1% 4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.9% under_0.5 7.1% over_1.5 76.3%
under_1.5 23.7% over_2.5 51.4% under_2.5 48.6%
over_3.5 29.3% under_3.5 70.7% over_4.5 14.2%
under_4.5 85.8% over_5.5 5.9% under_5.5 94.1%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 73.0% under_0.5 27.0% over_1.5 37.7%
under_1.5 62.4% over_2.5 14.5% under_2.5 85.5%
team_away
over_0.5 75.9% under_0.5 24.2% over_1.5 41.5%
under_1.5 58.5% over_2.5 17.2% under_2.5 82.8%
most
home 34.0% draw 26.8% away 39.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 5.3% away_+2.5 94.7% home_-1.5 15.3%
away_+1.5 84.7% home_-0.5 34.0% away_+0.5 66.0%
home_+0.5 60.9% away_-0.5 39.2% home_+1.5 81.3%
away_-1.5 18.8% home_+2.5 93.0% away_-2.5 7.0%
total_exact
exact_0 7.1% exact_1 16.6% exact_2 24.9%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 15.1% exact_5 8.2%
exact_6 3.8% exact_7plus 2.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 24.4% draw 43.9% away 31.7%
total
over_0.5 66.9% under_0.5 33.1% over_1.5 30.3%
under_1.5 69.7% over_2.5 10.1% under_2.5 90.0%
btts
yes 17.8% no 82.2%
total_exact
exact_0 33.1% exact_1 36.6% exact_2 20.2%
exact_3 7.4% exact_4plus 2.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.0% draw 35.0% away 32.9%
total
over_0.5 80.3% under_0.5 19.7% over_1.5 48.3%
under_1.5 51.7% over_2.5 22.3% under_2.5 77.7%
btts
yes 30.9% no 69.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 17.6% H/D 4.6% H/A 2.2%
D/H 14.1% D/D 15.4% D/A 14.5%
A/H 2.6% A/D 5.6% A/A 23.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 69.3% under_7.5 30.7% over_8.5 58.0%
under_8.5 42.0% over_9.5 46.6% under_9.5 53.4%
over_10.5 35.9% under_10.5 64.1% over_11.5 26.5%
under_11.5 73.5% over_12.5 18.9% under_12.5 81.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.4% under_3.5 30.6% over_4.5 54.6%
under_4.5 45.4% over_5.5 40.5% under_5.5 59.5%
team_away
over_3.5 58.2% under_3.5 41.8% over_4.5 42.2%
under_4.5 57.8% over_5.5 28.6% under_5.5 71.4%
most
home 53.0% draw 10.2% away 36.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.4% away_+3.5 75.6% home_-1.5 42.7%
away_+1.5 57.3% home_-0.5 53.0% away_+0.5 47.0%
home_+0.5 63.2% away_-0.5 36.8% home_+1.5 72.5%
away_-1.5 27.5% home_+3.5 86.7% away_-3.5 13.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 57.2% under_22.5 42.8% over_24.5 45.1%
under_24.5 54.9% over_26.5 33.8% under_26.5 66.2%
over_28.5 24.0% under_28.5 76.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 66.6% under_10.5 33.4% over_12.5 50.2%
under_12.5 49.8% over_14.5 34.8% under_14.5 65.2%
team_away
over_10.5 52.2% under_10.5 47.8% over_12.5 35.1%
under_12.5 64.9% over_14.5 21.6% under_14.5 78.5%
most
home 57.5% draw 6.0% away 36.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 33.4% away_+4.5 66.6% home_-2.5 45.2%
away_+2.5 54.8% home_-0.5 57.5% away_+0.5 42.5%
home_+0.5 63.5% away_-0.5 36.5% home_+2.5 74.4%
away_-2.5 25.6% home_+4.5 83.2% away_-4.5 16.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 70.3% under_6.5 29.7% over_7.5 57.6%
under_7.5 42.4% over_8.5 44.8% under_8.5 55.2%
over_9.5 33.0% under_9.5 67.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 58.7% under_3.5 41.3% over_4.5 40.7%
under_4.5 59.3% over_5.5 25.7% under_5.5 74.3%
team_away
over_3.5 57.2% under_3.5 42.8% over_4.5 39.1%
under_4.5 60.9% over_5.5 24.3% under_5.5 75.7%
most
home 44.5% draw 13.2% away 42.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 21.4% away_+2.5 78.6% home_-0.5 44.5%
away_+0.5 55.5% home_+0.5 57.7% away_-0.5 42.3%
home_+2.5 80.3% away_-2.5 19.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 83.4% under_2.5 16.6% over_3.5 66.9%
under_3.5 33.1% over_4.5 48.2% under_4.5 51.8%
over_5.5 31.1% under_5.5 68.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 64.6% under_1.5 35.4% over_2.5 38.0%
under_2.5 62.1%
team_away
over_1.5 68.3% under_1.5 31.7% over_2.5 42.1%
under_2.5 57.9%
most
home 37.6% draw 19.1% away 43.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 21.3% away_+1.5 78.7% home_-0.5 37.6%
away_+0.5 62.4% home_+0.5 56.7% away_-0.5 43.3%
home_+1.5 74.2% away_-1.5 25.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 83.8% under_20.5 16.2% over_22.5 73.9%
under_22.5 26.1% over_24.5 62.0% under_24.5 38.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 79.0% under_9.5 21.1% over_11.5 62.3%
under_11.5 37.8% over_13.5 44.2% under_13.5 55.8%
team_away
over_9.5 81.3% under_9.5 18.7% over_11.5 65.5%
under_11.5 34.5% over_13.5 47.7% under_13.5 52.3%
most
home 44.3% draw 6.4% away 49.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.5% away_+3.5 73.5% home_-0.5 44.3%
away_+0.5 55.7% home_+2.5 63.3% away_-2.5 36.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 19.9% no 80.1%
home
yes 15.1% no 84.9%
away
yes 5.7% no 94.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Rio Ave predictions · Estrela predictions · Primeira Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Primeira LigaRio AveEstrelaTrack record