Academico Viseu vs Guimaraes prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Academico Viseu vs Guimaraes: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Primeira Liga
Academico Viseu

DLDLW

Sat, 12 Sep 202620:30UK
Guimaraes

LLWLD

Model’s top convictions

71%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Draw or Guimaraes

61%

Academico Viseu or draw

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.25).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
GuimaraesWin probability
39.4%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals70.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.41
Draw or Guimaraes67.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.47
Academico or draw60.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.65

Model read

▾

Academico Viseu versus Guimaraes in the Primeira Liga on 12 September 2026 is finely balanced. Guimaraes edge it at 39%, but the gap to the field is slim. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Guimaraes at 48%. Caution noted. 2) The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 44% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. 3) Recent form reads W1 D2 L2 for Academico Viseu against W1 D1 L4 for Guimaraes. Academico Viseu are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.25)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals44.2%@ 2.26
Over 9.5 corners40.4%@ 2.48
Guimaraes win39.4%@ 2.54
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals55.8%@ 1.79
Over 8.5 corners50.5%@ 1.98
Both teams to score50.2%@ 1.99
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.5%@ 7.39
0-1 correct score10.6%@ 9.43
0-0 correct score9.3%@ 10.73

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Academico

32.1%+7.0%

Draw

28.5%+1.1%

Guimaraes

39.4%-8.1%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.25)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.570.8%

Strong chance

Over 2.544.2%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes50.2%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.550.5%

Good chance

Over 9.540.4%

Toss-up

Over 10.531.3%

Toss-up

Over 11.523.6%

Low chance

Most cornersAcademico Viseu49.7%Guimaraes39.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.552.0%

Good chance

Over 24.539.9%

Toss-up

Over 26.529.0%

Low chance

Over 28.520.0%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Academico Viseu9.2 taken17.0 faced
Guimaraes18.2 taken6.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.570.8%2.544.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.570.8%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.25).

Form & head-to-head

Academico ViseuDLDLW
GuimaraesLLWLD

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Academico ViseuGuimaraes
League position#10 of 18#12 of 18
Record W-D-L1-2-21-1-3
Current streakW1D1
Points per game1.000.80
Record, home vs away0-0-20-0-2
Goals scored per game1.000.60
Goals conceded per game1.601.00
1st half goals per game0.600.20
2nd half goals per game0.400.40
Corners won per game2.65.8
Cards per game2.62.6
Fouls per game13.216.4
Red cards this season00
Shots per game9.219.2
Shots faced per game17.06.4
Shots on target per game2.84.2
Over 2.5 rate

60.0%20.0%

BTTS rate

40.0%20.0%

Clean sheets

20.0%40.0%

Rates this season:Academico ViseuGuimaraes

League averages this season: 2.64 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 52% · BTTS in 41%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Academico Viseu win3.703.12
Draw3.403.51
Guimaraes win2.012.54
Over 2.5 goals2.102.26
Under 2.5 goals1.701.79

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Academico Viseu win3.12
Draw3.51
Guimaraes win2.54
Both teams to score1.99

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.41
Over 2.5 goals2.26
Over 3.5 goals4.33
Academico Viseu most3.12
Guimaraes most2.54

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.56
Over 8.5 corners1.92
Over 9.5 corners2.47
Over 10.5 corners3.31
Academico Viseu most2.01
Guimaraes most2.53

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.17
Over 3.5 cards1.43
Over 4.5 cards1.93
Over 5.5 cards2.91
Academico Viseu most2.35
Guimaraes most2.58

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.53
Over 7.5 SoT1.92
Over 8.5 SoT2.56
Over 9.5 SoT3.60
Academico Viseu most2.03
Guimaraes most2.68

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.92
Over 24.5 shots2.51
Over 26.5 shots3.44
Over 28.5 shots5.01
Academico Viseu most1.80
Guimaraes most2.61

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.15
Over 22.5 fouls1.29
Over 24.5 fouls1.50
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 52.0% Over 24.5 39.9% Over 26.5 29.0% Over 28.5 20.0%
Most: Academico Viseu 55.5% Most: Guimaraes 38.3%
Academico Viseu Over 13.2 37.3% Guimaraes Over 13.2 25.8%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 65.3% Over 7.5 52.0% Over 8.5 39.1% Over 9.5 27.8%
Most: Academico Viseu 49.2% Most: Guimaraes 37.3%
Academico Viseu Over 4.2 40.1% Guimaraes Over 4.2 31.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 85.3% Over 3.5 69.9% Over 4.5 51.7%
Most: Academico Viseu 42.5% Most: Guimaraes 38.8%
Academico Viseu Over 1.8 69.8% Guimaraes Over 1.8 67.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Academico Viseu clean sheet 27.3%
Guimaraes clean sheet 31.7%
Academico Viseu win to nil 18.0%
Guimaraes win to nil 22.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 32.1% draw 28.5% away 39.4%
double_chance
1X 60.6% 12 71.5% X2 67.9%
dnb
home 44.9% away 55.1%
btts
yes 50.2% no 49.8%
clean_sheet
home 27.3% away 31.8%
win_to_nil
home 18.0% away 22.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.8% home_by_2 9.1% home_by_3plus 4.2%
away_by_1 21.3% away_by_2 11.7% away_by_3plus 6.4%
correct_score
0-0 9.3% 0-1 10.6% 0-2 7.3%
0-3 3.2% 0-4 1.0% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 9.3% 1-1 13.5% 1-2 8.4%
1-3 3.6% 1-4 1.2% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 5.7% 2-1 7.4% 2-2 4.8%
2-3 2.1% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 2.2% 3-1 2.8% 3-2 1.8%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.6% 4-1 0.8% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.7% under_0.5 9.3% over_1.5 70.8%
under_1.5 29.2% over_2.5 44.2% under_2.5 55.8%
over_3.5 23.1% under_3.5 76.9% over_4.5 10.2%
under_4.5 89.8% over_5.5 3.9% under_5.5 96.2%
odd_even
odd 48.3% even 51.7%
team_home
over_0.5 68.2% under_0.5 31.8% over_1.5 31.8%
under_1.5 68.2% over_2.5 10.9% under_2.5 89.1%
team_away
over_0.5 72.7% under_0.5 27.3% over_1.5 37.3%
under_1.5 62.7% over_2.5 14.3% under_2.5 85.7%
most
home 32.1% draw 28.5% away 39.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.2% away_+2.5 95.8% home_-1.5 13.3%
away_+1.5 86.7% home_-0.5 32.1% away_+0.5 67.9%
home_+0.5 60.6% away_-0.5 39.4% home_+1.5 81.9%
away_-1.5 18.1% home_+2.5 93.6% away_-2.5 6.4%
total_exact
exact_0 9.3% exact_1 19.9% exact_2 26.6%
exact_3 21.1% exact_4 12.9% exact_5 6.3%
exact_6 2.6% exact_7plus 1.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.7% draw 41.3% away 26.1%
total
over_0.5 70.8% under_0.5 29.2% over_1.5 34.8%
under_1.5 65.2% over_2.5 12.7% under_2.5 87.3%
btts
yes 21.0% no 79.1%
total_exact
exact_0 29.2% exact_1 35.9% exact_2 22.1%
exact_3 9.1% exact_4plus 3.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.4% draw 42.5% away 26.2%
total
over_0.5 69.1% under_0.5 30.9% over_1.5 32.8%
under_1.5 67.2% over_2.5 11.5% under_2.5 88.5%
btts
yes 19.6% no 80.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 26.1% H/D 5.1% H/A 1.5%
D/H 13.0% D/D 17.5% D/A 10.8%
A/H 1.8% A/D 4.9% A/A 19.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 64.0% under_7.5 36.0% over_8.5 52.1%
under_8.5 47.9% over_9.5 40.5% under_9.5 59.5%
over_10.5 30.2% under_10.5 69.8% over_11.5 21.6%
under_11.5 78.4% over_12.5 14.8% under_12.5 85.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 64.1% under_3.5 35.9% over_4.5 48.5%
under_4.5 51.5% over_5.5 34.4% under_5.5 65.6%
team_away
over_3.5 56.7% under_3.5 43.3% over_4.5 40.6%
under_4.5 59.4% over_5.5 27.1% under_5.5 72.9%
most
home 49.8% draw 10.7% away 39.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.0% away_+3.5 79.0% home_-1.5 39.2%
away_+1.5 60.8% home_-0.5 49.8% away_+0.5 50.2%
home_+0.5 60.5% away_-0.5 39.5% home_+1.5 70.5%
away_-1.5 29.5% home_+3.5 85.8% away_-3.5 14.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 52.0% under_22.5 48.0% over_24.5 39.9%
under_24.5 60.1% over_26.5 29.0% under_26.5 71.0%
over_28.5 20.0% under_28.5 80.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 62.0% under_10.5 38.0% over_12.5 45.1%
under_12.5 54.9% over_14.5 30.1% under_14.5 69.9%
team_away
over_10.5 49.9% under_10.5 50.1% over_12.5 33.0%
under_12.5 67.0% over_14.5 19.8% under_14.5 80.2%
most
home 55.6% draw 6.2% away 38.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 31.1% away_+4.5 68.9% home_-2.5 43.0%
away_+2.5 57.0% home_-0.5 55.6% away_+0.5 44.5%
home_+0.5 61.7% away_-0.5 38.3% home_+2.5 73.1%
away_-2.5 26.9% home_+4.5 82.4% away_-4.5 17.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 65.3% under_6.5 34.7% over_7.5 52.0%
under_7.5 48.0% over_8.5 39.1% under_8.5 60.9%
over_9.5 27.8% under_9.5 72.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 58.1% under_3.5 41.9% over_4.5 40.1%
under_4.5 59.9% over_5.5 25.2% under_5.5 74.8%
team_away
over_3.5 49.6% under_3.5 50.4% over_4.5 31.7%
under_4.5 68.3% over_5.5 18.3% under_5.5 81.7%
most
home 49.2% draw 13.5% away 37.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 24.3% away_+2.5 75.7% home_-0.5 49.2%
away_+0.5 50.8% home_+0.5 62.7% away_-0.5 37.3%
home_+2.5 84.2% away_-2.5 15.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 85.3% under_2.5 14.7% over_3.5 69.9%
under_3.5 30.1% over_4.5 51.7% under_4.5 48.3%
over_5.5 34.3% under_5.5 65.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 69.8% under_1.5 30.2% over_2.5 43.9%
under_2.5 56.1%
team_away
over_1.5 67.5% under_1.5 32.5% over_2.5 41.2%
under_2.5 58.8%
most
home 42.5% draw 18.7% away 38.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 25.5% away_+1.5 74.5% home_-0.5 42.5%
away_+0.5 57.5% home_+0.5 61.2% away_-0.5 38.8%
home_+1.5 77.5% away_-1.5 22.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 86.6% under_20.5 13.4% over_22.5 77.8%
under_22.5 22.2% over_24.5 66.7% under_24.5 33.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 80.7% under_9.5 19.3% over_11.5 64.6%
under_11.5 35.4% over_13.5 46.8% under_13.5 53.2%
team_away
over_9.5 84.1% under_9.5 15.9% over_11.5 69.6%
under_11.5 30.4% over_13.5 52.4% under_13.5 47.6%
most
home 42.9% draw 6.3% away 50.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.6% away_+3.5 74.4% home_-0.5 42.9%
away_+0.5 57.1% home_+2.5 61.8% away_-2.5 38.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 8.2% no 91.8%
home
yes 5.0% no 95.1%
away
yes 3.4% no 96.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Academico Viseu predictions · Guimaraes predictions · Primeira Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Primeira LigaAcademico ViseuGuimaraesTrack record