Shots

Over 22.5	58.9%	Over 24.5	46.7%	Over 26.5	35.3%	Over 28.5	25.2%
Most: Napoli	58.4%	Most: Bologna	35.7%
Napoli Over 13.2	43.9%	Bologna Over 13.2	28.3%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	63.7%	Over 7.5	51.8%	Over 8.5	40.4%	Over 9.5	30.3%
Most: Napoli	52.7%	Most: Bologna	35.3%
Napoli Over 4.2	42.8%	Bologna Over 4.2	30.5%

Cards

Over 2.5	65.9%	Over 3.5	44.6%	Over 4.5	26.5%
Most: Napoli	31.7%	Most: Bologna	46.5%
Napoli Over 1.8	44.8%	Bologna Over 1.8	55.9%

Napoli: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Alisson Santos	3.28	1.51	0.35	63.3%	64.0%	20.7%
Lorenzo Lucca	2.85	1.09	0.44	45.5%	47.0%	21.7%
Scott McTominay	2.74	1.04	0.34	62.7%	73.2%	27.5%
Kevin De Bruyne	2.48	0.8	0.3	40.5%	47.9%	17.7%
Rasmus Højlund	1.71	0.71	0.34	44.4%	41.2%	24.5%

Bologna: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Riccardo Orsolini	3.41	1.29	0.55	58.3%	67.2%	31.2%
Jonathan Rowe	3.24	1.15	0.22	42.9%	46.9%	10.2%
Federico Bernardeschi	2.95	1.09	0.26	41.2%	42.1%	11.9%
Artem Dovbyk	2.46	1.09	0.55	50.0%	46.3%	29.5%
Jens Odgaard	2.3	0.92	0.28	48.1%	48.7%	18.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Napoli clean sheet	36.7%
Bologna clean sheet	25.0%
Napoli win to nil	26.9%
Bologna win to nil	15.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	45.3%	draw	28.3%	away	26.4%

double_chance

1X	73.6%	12	71.7%	X2	54.7%

dnb

home	63.2%	away	36.8%

btts

yes	47.9%	no	52.1%

clean_sheet

home	36.9%	away	25.0%

win_to_nil

home	27.0%	away	15.2%

winning_margin

home_by_1	23.2%	home_by_2	13.7%	home_by_3plus	8.4%
away_by_1	16.6%	away_by_2	7.1%	away_by_3plus	2.8%

correct_score

0-0	9.9%	0-1	8.6%	0-2	4.6%
0-3	1.5%	0-4	0.4%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	12.1%	1-1	13.3%	1-2	6.3%
1-3	2.1%	1-4	0.5%	1-5	0.1%
2-0	8.8%	2-1	8.8%	2-2	4.4%
2-3	1.5%	2-4	0.4%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	4.1%	3-1	4.1%	3-2	2.1%
3-3	0.7%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.0%
4-0	1.5%	4-1	1.5%	4-2	0.7%
4-3	0.2%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.4%	5-1	0.4%	5-2	0.2%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.4%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	13.3%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	90.1%	under_0.5	9.9%	over_1.5	69.5%
under_1.5	30.5%	over_2.5	42.8%	under_2.5	57.2%
over_3.5	22.0%	under_3.5	78.0%	over_4.5	9.6%
under_4.5	90.5%	over_5.5	3.6%	under_5.5	96.4%

odd_even

odd	48.3%	even	51.7%

team_home

over_0.5	75.0%	under_0.5	25.0%	over_1.5	40.5%
under_1.5	59.5%	over_2.5	16.6%	under_2.5	83.4%

team_away

over_0.5	63.1%	under_0.5	36.9%	over_1.5	26.4%
under_1.5	73.7%	over_2.5	8.0%	under_2.5	92.0%

most

home	45.3%	draw	28.3%	away	26.4%

handicap

home_-2.5	8.4%	away_+2.5	91.6%	home_-1.5	22.1%
away_+1.5	77.9%	home_-0.5	45.3%	away_+0.5	54.7%
home_+0.5	73.6%	away_-0.5	26.4%	home_+1.5	90.1%
away_-1.5	9.9%	home_+2.5	97.3%	away_-2.5	2.8%

total_exact

exact_0	9.9%	exact_1	20.7%	exact_2	26.7%
exact_3	20.8%	exact_4	12.4%	exact_5	6.0%
exact_6	2.4%	exact_7plus	1.2%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	36.5%	draw	43.8%	away	19.7%

total

over_0.5	66.2%	under_0.5	33.8%	over_1.5	29.6%
under_1.5	70.4%	over_2.5	9.7%	under_2.5	90.3%

btts

yes	16.6%	no	83.4%

total_exact

exact_0	33.8%	exact_1	36.7%	exact_2	19.9%
exact_3	7.2%	exact_4plus	2.5%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	39.2%	draw	37.0%	away	23.8%

total

over_0.5	76.5%	under_0.5	23.5%	over_1.5	42.5%
under_1.5	57.5%	over_2.5	17.9%	under_2.5	82.1%

btts

yes	25.8%	no	74.2%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	29.8%	H/D	5.1%	H/A	1.6%
D/H	17.2%	D/D	16.2%	D/A	10.4%
A/H	2.3%	A/D	4.4%	A/A	13.0%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	60.5%	under_7.5	39.5%	over_8.5	49.1%
under_8.5	50.9%	over_9.5	38.3%	under_9.5	61.7%
over_10.5	28.8%	under_10.5	71.2%	over_11.5	20.9%
under_11.5	79.1%	over_12.5	14.7%	under_12.5	85.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	66.7%	under_3.5	33.3%	over_4.5	52.3%
under_4.5	47.7%	over_5.5	38.8%	under_5.5	61.2%

team_away

over_3.5	47.6%	under_3.5	52.4%	over_4.5	32.2%
under_4.5	67.8%	over_5.5	20.5%	under_5.5	79.5%

most

home	58.1%	draw	10.2%	away	31.7%

handicap

home_-3.5	27.8%	away_+3.5	72.2%	home_-1.5	47.4%
away_+1.5	52.6%	home_-0.5	58.1%	away_+0.5	41.9%
home_+0.5	68.3%	away_-0.5	31.7%	home_+1.5	77.3%
away_-1.5	22.7%	home_+3.5	90.0%	away_-3.5	10.0%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	58.9%	under_22.5	41.2%	over_24.5	46.8%
under_24.5	53.3%	over_26.5	35.3%	under_26.5	64.7%
over_28.5	25.2%	under_28.5	74.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	68.2%	under_10.5	31.8%	over_12.5	51.9%
under_12.5	48.1%	over_14.5	36.4%	under_14.5	63.6%

team_away

over_10.5	52.8%	under_10.5	47.2%	over_12.5	35.7%
under_12.5	64.3%	over_14.5	21.9%	under_14.5	78.1%

most

home	58.4%	draw	5.9%	away	35.7%

handicap

home_-4.5	34.2%	away_+4.5	65.8%	home_-2.5	46.1%
away_+2.5	53.9%	home_-0.5	58.4%	away_+0.5	41.6%
home_+0.5	64.3%	away_-0.5	35.7%	home_+2.5	75.0%
away_-2.5	25.0%	home_+4.5	83.7%	away_-4.5	16.3%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	63.7%	under_6.5	36.3%	over_7.5	51.8%
under_7.5	48.2%	over_8.5	40.4%	under_8.5	59.6%
over_9.5	30.3%	under_9.5	69.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	58.6%	under_3.5	41.4%	over_4.5	42.8%
under_4.5	57.2%	over_5.5	29.5%	under_5.5	70.5%

team_away

over_3.5	46.2%	under_3.5	53.8%	over_4.5	30.5%
under_4.5	69.5%	over_5.5	18.8%	under_5.5	81.2%

most

home	52.7%	draw	12.0%	away	35.3%

handicap

home_-2.5	29.5%	away_+2.5	70.5%	home_-0.5	52.7%
away_+0.5	47.3%	home_+0.5	64.7%	away_-0.5	35.3%
home_+2.5	83.9%	away_-2.5	16.2%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	65.9%	under_2.5	34.1%	over_3.5	44.6%
under_3.5	55.4%	over_4.5	26.5%	under_4.5	73.5%
over_5.5	14.0%	under_5.5	86.1%

odd_even

odd	49.9%	even	50.1%

team_home

over_1.5	44.8%	under_1.5	55.2%	over_2.5	20.2%
under_2.5	79.8%

team_away

over_1.5	55.9%	under_1.5	44.1%	over_2.5	29.8%
under_2.5	70.2%

most

home	31.7%	draw	21.8%	away	46.5%

handicap

home_-1.5	15.2%	away_+1.5	84.8%	home_-0.5	31.7%
away_+0.5	68.3%	home_+0.5	53.5%	away_-0.5	46.5%
home_+1.5	73.7%	away_-1.5	26.3%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	74.2%	under_20.5	25.9%	over_22.5	61.7%
under_22.5	38.3%	over_24.5	48.4%	under_24.5	51.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	71.5%	under_9.5	28.5%	over_11.5	52.7%
under_11.5	47.3%	over_13.5	34.6%	under_13.5	65.4%

team_away

over_9.5	74.3%	under_9.5	25.7%	over_11.5	56.2%
under_11.5	43.8%	over_13.5	38.0%	under_13.5	62.0%

most

home	44.2%	draw	6.7%	away	49.1%

handicap

home_-3.5	25.7%	away_+3.5	74.3%	home_-0.5	44.2%
away_+0.5	55.8%	home_+2.5	64.1%	away_-2.5	35.9%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	15.2%	no	84.9%

home

yes	4.7%	no	95.3%

away

yes	11.0%	no	89.0%